The Aftermath of Assad's Regime Collapse in Syria

The fall of Assad's regime marks a pivotal, uncertain shift in Syria's power dynamics and regional stability.

### The Fall of Assad: A New Era for Syria and Regional Power Dynamics
* 🎉 The fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad marks the **end of a 54-year regime**, igniting a wave of **euphoria among Syrians** but also **uncertainty about the future**.
* 💥 The civil war began in 2011 during the Arab Spring, with the Assad regime responding to protests with **brutal force**, including the **torture of children**, which fueled **widespread anger and resistance**.
* ⚔ Over time, various armed groups formed to combat the regime, with rebels **capturing Aleppo**, although Assad eventually regained control with the support of **Iran and Russia**, using **chemical weapons** in the process.
* 🌍 The current power landscape in Syria includes three main groups: the **Turkish-backed Syrian National Army**, the **U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces**, and **Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham**, a group previously affiliated with **al-Qaeda**.
* 🏛 HTS, which has taken control of significant territories, including **Aleppo and Damascus**, has implemented governance measures while still being classified as a **terrorist organization** by the U.S. and others.
* 🚀 The unexpected abandonment of Assad by his allies, particularly **Russia and Iran**, has raised questions about their **future involvement in the region** amid their own conflicts.
* 🦅 Turkey appears to be the primary beneficiary of this shift, potentially leading to a **precarious situation for the Kurdish population** as they navigate the **new power dynamics in Syria**.
* ⚠ The collapse of Assad's regime presents both opportunities and risks, including the **potential for increased instability**, **humanitarian challenges**, and the ongoing designation of **HTS as a terrorist organization** complicating aid efforts.

The fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad took just over a week. It's the end of a 54-year-long regime in Syria, but it's just the beginning of a reshuffling of power, not just in Syria but in the whole region.

Now, most Syrians are in a state of euphoria that there is an end to this brutal repression and corruption, but what lies ahead is certainly very uncertain for many Syrians. Here's how Syria got to this point and what might happen next with a

group the U.S. designates as a terrorist organization now in charge. The civil war against Assad began during the Arab Spring in 2011, where countries throughout the Middle East saw uprisings and revolutions against authoritarian regimes. Syria was no exception. The Assad regime's immediate

response was brute force, even torturing children who had written graffiti on a wall. This kind of deep humiliation really angered the entire population, and you saw protests spontaneously rise up throughout the country. The regime, unfortunately, doubled down on that brute force, and so eventually you saw many of

those protesters form their own armed groups to defend their communities. Rebels even captured the largest city at the time, Aleppo. It took four years, but Assad eventually recaptured it, using chemical weapons against his own people and largely because of the backing and direct military support of Iran and

Russia. Syria has actually historic ties to Russia, but I think what Putin saw during the war is an opening to become a great power. The Iranians, on the other hand, have long had an alliance with the Assad regime; it's an essential element of the

So-called Shia Crescent, in which Tehran wants access through Iraq, Syria, and into Lebanon and the Mediterranean, through its proxy militias in Iraq and, of course, in Lebanon with Hezbollah. Assad was a key to that route over the last 13 years. Dozens of groups

fought against the Assad regime and each other, but today there are three main ones who hold territory within Syria. There's the Syrian National Army, or SNA, which is basically a hodgepodge of different rebel groups that had fought the regime all over Syria but had been

displaced to northern Syria in recent years. Um, and they have become this somewhat undisciplined army that is backed by Turkey and, unfortunately, often has to do Ankara's bidding for that reason rather than face off with the regime. Then there's the

Syrian Democratic Forces, another hodgepodge of rebel groups, primarily Kurdish fighters—an ethnic minority. They're backed by the U.S. and often clashed with the Turkish-backed SNA. And quite critically, they guard the prisons in the northeast that have ISIS

fighters in them, so they're a really critical component to stability as well. And then there's Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS. This is who ultimately led the offensive to capture Damascus. They were originally established as an al-Qaeda affiliate, led by a man who later led

ISIS. They broke ties with al-Qaeda in 2016 but are still considered a terrorist organization by the U.S., Turkey, and others. It was in firm control of Idlib city and much of the province beforehand and had ruled that area with an iron fist.

But it is one of the more disciplined and independent armed groups in Syria. In late November, HTS advanced from Idlib to Aleppo, which they seized in just a few days.  This wasn't just military violence; they also implemented governance. They immediately went into Aleppo and tried to prevent looting,

protect government institutions. They told former soldiers and government employees to stay in their posts as long as they renounced any allegiance to Assad. They went around and tried to reassure minorities that they would not be harmed. Assad and Russian forces launched

air strikes in Aleppo and Idlib. At least 12 civilians were killed, but it didn't slow HTS, who quickly took Hama, Homs, and eventually moved onto the capital, Damascus. As Assad fled to Russia, Syrians celebrated across the country and across the

world. I think what was most shocking is the abandonment of Assad by his stalwart allies, Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah in particular. Experts believe these allies were too entangled in their own conflicts with Israel and Ukraine to have been much help to Assad. To see the

Russians abandon Assad in the way that they did in recent days was actually quite shocking. They certainly, at least, want to maintain their naval base and their air base in Syria, and yet when the rebels fell Aleppo, messages out of the Kremlin seemed to be, 'Assad, deal with it; we're busy.'

Turkey seems to be the winner in all of this. They have potentially greenlighted this offensive in the first place. They will be able to essentially carry out whatever they want in Syria in the next couple of months as we wait for the new

U.S. president to come in, and that is a really terrifying future for the Kurdish population in Syria. This is a historic day for the Middle East; the collapse of the Assad regime, the tyranny in Damascus, offers great opportunity but also is fraught

with significant dangers. Besides the conflicts between Turkish and Kurdish forces, we could see Russia assert power in other countries, or Iran too. Many people are wondering if they will simply accelerate the nuclear program, which it seems like they're doing as a different sort of

deterrent strategy, or even a chemical weapons program for that matter. And within Syria, the occupying forces are still labeled as a terrorist organization, which could make cooperation and humanitarian aid difficult. We know that they have some bad behavior in Idlib, um, but they're

that they're also a very pragmatic group and desperately want to get off of the terrorism designation list, so there is a vulnerability there to exploit. If people are not allowed to invest, if aid is not allowed to get into the country, it's going to be a real disaster.

Likewise, if the designations are lifted without getting any kind of promises or reassurances of what HTS behavior will look like in the future, and other groups as well, it could equally be a disaster for the serious future.

Assad's Reign Is Over. What's Next for Syria? | WSJ

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The Fall of Assad and Regional Implications

Assad's regime fell after a week, ending 54 years of rule.

Syrians are euphoric but face an uncertain future.

The civil war began during the Arab Spring in 2011.

Iran's strategic interests in the Shia Crescent were tied to Assad's regime.

The Syrian National Army (SNA), backed by Turkey.

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), backed by the U.S., guarding ISIS prisoners.

Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al-Qaeda affiliate, now in control of Damascus.

HTS's Capture of Damascus and International Response

HTS's rapid advance and implementation of governance in Aleppo.

Assad and Russian forces launched airstrikes, but HTS continued its advance.

Russia's abandonment of Assad surprised experts.

Potential Future Conflicts and Challenges

Turkey's potential influence and threat to the Kurdish population.

Concerns about Russia and Iran's actions in the region.

Challenges related to HTS's terrorist designation and humanitarian aid.