Real Estate Market Trends: Trading Volume Insights and Predictions

The Apartment Cycle Research Institute predicts a decline in trading volume, signaling a potential end to the current real estate rebound.

### Introduction of Kim Na-eun and Apartment Cycle Research Institute Update
Kim Na-eun is the new member of the Apartment Cycle Research Institute, joining with a **strong interest in the economy and real estate**. The team discusses the apartment sales transaction volume, noting a **significant increase from June to July**, with **8,745 transactions recorded in July**. The data for August is still being compiled, with a current count of **around 3,000 transactions**.

### Predicting Trading Volume Trends
The trading volume is expected to **decline from July to August and further decrease in September**, indicating a potential **weakening of the bullish market**. The average transaction price has also decreased from June to July, suggesting a shift in transactions to **less expensive areas like Nodogang**. Overall, the upward momentum in transaction amounts and volume in Seoul has weakened, indicating that the **rebound may not be sustained**.

### The Current Real Estate Trends in Seoul and Gyeonggi Province
Areas in Gangseo and Gyeonggi Province are starting to **increase in value**, but the rebound is **weak and short-lived**. Key regions like Bundang and Pangyo lead the growth, but the **momentum eventually fades**. The upcoming seasonal changes and vacation periods may **further slow down trading activity**, challenging the notion of a **consistent buying pattern**.

### Transaction Trends in the Seoul Metropolitan Area
The transaction volumes in Seoul and Gyeonggi Province are moving in tandem, indicating a **unified market**. Core areas in both regions are experiencing price rises first, with the effects **gradually spreading to the outskirts**. The transaction volume in Gyeonggi Province is expected to see a **slight increase** in August, and the inventory in Seoul is currently rising, showing a **recent spike**.

### The Impact of Seller Behavior on Property Prices
The increase in sellers wanting to sell their properties is not necessarily linked to a price drop. The approach of sellers, whether **aggressive or passive**, significantly affects property prices. The asking price reflects the level of proactivity, with **assertive sellers lowering prices** and **unassertive ones creating room for negotiation**.

### Homeowners' Expectations and Real Estate Trends
Homeowners' expectations for price increases have **decreased since 2020**, with current indicators **not trending upward**. The inventory changes may signal potential **price rebounds or declines**. The transaction volume in Seoul and Gyeonggi Province is expected to fluctuate, with predictions of around **6,000 to 7,000 cases** in Seoul and possibly **exceeding 30,000 cases** in Gyeonggi Province.

### Insights on Real Estate Trends and Trading Volumes
* 👋 Today, announcer Kim Na-eun joins the Apartment Cycle Research Institute, expressing her **passion for real estate** and **excitement to share engaging stories** with the team.
* 🏢 Director Lee Hyun-cheol introduces the monthly discussion on trading volume, emphasizing the **importance of tracking real estate transaction statuses** through updated data from the **Seoul real estate information plaza**.
* 📊 In July, the trading volume recorded was **8,745 transactions**, showing a significant increase from June's **7,526**, but August's data suggests a potential decline, with only around **3,000 transactions** so far.
* 🔍 The average transaction price has also decreased from approximately **1.26221 billion won** in June to about **1.21 billion won** in July, indicating a shift in transaction patterns towards **less expensive areas** like Nodogang.
* 📉 Observations suggest that if the trading volume continues to decline, it could **negatively impact the bullish sentiment** in the market, especially as seasonal factors like **Chuseok and winter** approach.
* 📈 Gyeonggi Province mirrors these trends, with July transactions at **27,488** and expectations for August to **exceed 30,000**, indicating **interconnected market behaviors** between Seoul and its surrounding areas.
* 💡 The discussion highlights the significance of inventory changes and asking prices, suggesting that **sellers' expectations for price increases have diminished**, impacting market dynamics and buyer negotiations.
* 🗓 As the team prepares for future updates, they encourage subscribers to engage by predicting trading volumes, aiming to return next month with insights on **August's trading volume results**.

신호가 보인다! 서울, 경기도 7월 아파트 거래량 "주목해야 할 부분은.."

부동산에 대한 객관적인 시각, 정확한 이론으로 시장을 분석하고 현상을 설명합니다.

아파트 사이클 연구소 소장 이현철입니다.
아파트는 필수품이면서 투자상품입니다
주식이나 암호화폐등 전형적인 투자상품은 관심이 없는 사람은
끝까지 관심을 갖지 않아도 되고 관심이 없을수도 있습니다.
그래서 분위기가 과열될때에도 분위기에 휩쓸리지 않을수도 있게 되는 것이죠.

그런데 주택은 다릅니다. 피할수 없습니다.
매일 매일 접하면서 살아야 합니다. 그래서 주택시장이 과열되면
그동안 관심을 가지지 않아도 될것 같다가 어쩔수 없이 과열된 시장에
반 강제적으로 참여하게 됩니다. 

그래서 부동산 공부가 필요합니다.
[피하지 못할거면 즐겨라] 라는 말이 있습니다.
부동산은 피할수 없습니다. 관심을 갖지 않고 살다가 반드시
후회하는 상황을 맞닥뜨리게 됩니다.
그럴거면 공부를 해서 내가 시장을 응용하고 잘 대응할수 있게
만드는게 낫지 않을까 생각합니다.

그 과정에서 제가 조금이나마 도움이 되었으면 합니다
부동산에 대한 객관적인 시각으로
부동산에 대한 좀더 정확한 이론으로
시장을 분석하고 현상을 설명하고자 합니다

많은 관심과 참여 바랍니다

- 비즈니스 협업 문의 : hoktal1@us-all.co.kr