The Reality of AI's Economic Impact and Skepticism

The skepticism surrounding AI's economic impact reveals a potential bubble, challenging inflated productivity expectations.

### La Realidad de la Inteligencia Artificial: Expectativas vs. Impacto Económico
* 🤖 La inteligencia artificial ha sido objeto de grandes expectativas, desde **aumentos en la productividad** hasta **temores sobre la pérdida de empleos** y **riesgos existenciales**.
* 📊 Goldman Sachs estima que la IA podría **incrementar el PIB global hasta un 7%** en la próxima década, lo que representa alrededor de **7 billones de dólares en valor agregado**.
* 💼 Por otro lado, la consultora McKinsey proyecta que la IA generativa podría aportar entre **2.6 y 4.4 billones de dólares anualmente** a la economía.
* 💸 Sin embargo, la realidad muestra que **pocas empresas actualmente generan ingresos significativos** a partir de servicios de IA, con OpenAI y Anthropic como **excepciones notables**.
* 💡 Jim Covello de Goldman Sachs advierte que el alto costo de desarrollar y mantener la IA podría limitar su rentabilidad, sugiriendo que "**las aplicaciones de IA deben resolver problemas extremadamente complejos e importantes**" para justificar su costo.
* 📉 Daron Acemoglu del MIT recalcula que el impacto de la IA en el empleo y la economía será **mucho menor de lo anticipado**, con un posible aumento del PIB de **solo un 1%**.
* 💔 David Cahn de Sequoia Capital señala que existe una discrepancia entre las expectativas de ingresos y el crecimiento real en el ecosistema de IA, sugiriendo que "**es casi seguro que miles de millones de dólares en capital serán incinerados**".
* 🧠 A largo plazo, solo unas pocas **grandes empresas** podrán sobrevivir en el mercado de la IA, lo que plantea un **futuro incierto** para muchas startups en este campo.

AI Hype: “Billions of dollars will be incinerated” Business Analysts Warn

As simple as possible, but not any simpler! Science and technology updates and summaries. No hype, no spin, no tip-toeing around inconvenient truths. News each Wednesday, new topical video each Saturday.

Sabine Hossenfelder has a PhD in physics. She is author of the books "Lost in Math: How Beauty Leads Physics Astray" (Basic Books, 2018) and "Existential Physics: A Scientist's Guide to Life's Biggest Questions" (Viking, 2022).


Sabine Hossenfelder

Optimistic Forecasts on AI's Economic Impact

Goldman Sachs predicts a 7% increase in global GDP due to AI within 10 years.

McKinsey projects an annual increase of $2.6 to $4.4 trillion to the global economy.

A survey of economists at a conference anticipated a 4-6% increase in GDP.

Reality Check: Limited AI Revenue and Potential Bubble

Few companies are currently generating significant revenue from AI services, with exceptions like OpenAI and Anthropic.

A surge in AI startups is creating a potential bubble.

Hardware companies like Nvidia and TSMC are profiting from the increased demand for AI microchips.

Goldman Sachs' Jim Covello highlights the high initial cost of AI development and challenges in achieving ROI.

MIT's Daron Acemoglu argues that AI's impact will be smaller than expected due to the cost of replacing jobs and limited cost savings.

Sequoia Capital's David Cahn points out a gap between expected AI revenue and actual growth.

Significant capital investment in AI is likely to be lost.

The Future of AI: Consolidation and Key Players

Only a few large companies will likely survive in the long term due to the high costs of AI development and maintenance.

Governments should consider building their own AI to avoid dependence on a few powerful entities.

The speaker recommends Brilliant.org for courses on neural networks, large language models, and other related topics.