US Critical Minerals Supply Chain Challenges and Opportunities

America's critical mineral shortage threatens green energy goals due to slow mine development and heavy reliance on China.

### Challenges and Opportunities in U.S. Critical Minerals Supply Chain
* 📈 In the U.S., the demand for essential metals like lithium, nickel, and cobalt is projected to **surge**, with expectations of a **23-fold increase by 2035** compared to 2021 levels.
* ⏳ However, the establishment of new mines has drastically slowed since 2002, with **only three new mines for these critical metals** starting production, according to S&P Global.
* 🏗 The lengthy average timeline of **29 years** for a mine to transition from discovery to production in the U.S. is significantly slower than the global average of **23 years**, highlighting **systemic inefficiencies**.
* ⚖ Key obstacles to progress include a **litigious culture**, a **complex federal permitting process**, and **low social acceptance of mining activities**.
* 🇺🇸 Despite having abundant resources—approximately **double the lithium reserves** of Australia and more copper than Canada and Australia combined—the U.S. has seen investors shift focus to countries like Australia and Canada, which have **higher exploration budgets by 57% and 81%**, respectively.
* 👷 Compounding these issues, over **221,000 workers** in America's mining sector are expected to retire by 2029, raising concerns about **workforce sustainability**.
* 🌍 Currently, the U.S. is heavily reliant on imports for critical minerals, with **12 minerals being 100% import-reliant** and over **50% reliance on 31 additional minerals**, particularly concerning due to **China's dominance in processing capacities**.
* 🤝 In response, the U.S. is working to strengthen its mineral supply chains through initiatives like the **Mineral Security Partnership** and international agreements, but overcoming **China's advantages in the sector** poses a **significant challenge**.

[Music] In the US, demand for metals critical to the green transition continues to climb sharply. The combined demand for lithium, nickel, and cobalt is expected to be 23 times higher in 2035 than it was in 2021. But at the same time, the development of

new mines that could help fulfill that need has slowed to a crawl since 2002. Only three new mines for crucial transition metals have entered production there, according to a report from S&P Global. On average, it takes 29 years for a mine to go from discovery to

production in the US. That's the second slowest in the world and compares to a global average of about 23 years, the report says. There are three key factors behind the tortoise-like progress: the litigious culture of the US, the complex process for getting permits on federal

lands, and low social acceptance of mining operations. The US is not short of critical resources; its reserves and resources of lithium are about twice that of Australia, which produces around half of the world's lithium. It has more copper than Canada and Australia combined, but uncertainty over the

timelines for mines in the US has pushed investors to other countries. Exploration budgets have been 57% higher in Australia and 81% higher in Canada over the past 15 years. Adding to the problem, more than half of America's mining workforce—some 221,000 workers—is

expected to retire by 2029. Today, the country is 100% import-reliant for 12 minerals the US government classifies as critical; it's over 50% import-reliant on 31 more critical minerals. China, in particular, is a concern for the US; Chinese companies

Control 90% of the world's processing capacity for rare earths and more than half the processing capacity for graphite, cobalt, and lithium. Making matters worse, China recently banned the export of certain high-tech materials, including gallium, germanium, and antimony, to America in

response to U.S. restrictions on semiconductor-related exports to China. America is making moves to reduce its reliance on China. In 2022, the U.S. created the Mineral Security Partnership, which consists of 14 nations and the EU, to develop sustainable supply chains of

critical minerals. The U.S. also signed a critical minerals deal with Japan in 2023 and is pursuing similar deals with other allies. But China's mineral projects benefit from subsidies, easier access to financing, superior processing technology, lower costs, and laxer environmental standards. Breaking its chokehold on the sector won't be easy.

The US needs more mines for crucial transition metals | FT Energy Source

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Financial Times

High Demand, Slow Supply of Critical Minerals in the US

Demand for lithium, nickel, and cobalt is projected to increase significantly by 2035.

New mine development in the US has slowed considerably since 2002, with only three new mines entering production.

Factors hindering mine development include litigation, complex permitting processes, and low social acceptance.

The US possesses substantial reserves of critical minerals, but uncertainties about timelines deter investors.

A significant portion of the US mining workforce is nearing retirement, exacerbating the problem.

US Reliance on Foreign Minerals and China's Dominance

The US is heavily reliant on imports for critical minerals, with China controlling a significant portion of global processing capacity.

China's recent export ban on certain high-tech materials further complicates the situation.

The US has formed the Mineral Security Partnership and is pursuing deals with other countries to diversify supply chains.

However, China's advantages in subsidies, financing, technology, costs, and environmental regulations pose challenges.