European and Chinese Market Stability Insights

China's government is subtly improving the market, prioritizing sustainable growth over a rapid rally.

### Market Insights: France's Fiscal Challenges and China's Sustainable Growth
* 🇫🇷 Markets are currently giving the French president time to explore alternative options, but the **duration of this patience remains uncertain** as year-end approaches.
* 📉 While the long-term outlook for France appears negative due to **fiscal and debt concerns**, short-term bearish strategies may not be advisable given the **current situation**.
* 💶 The euro is expected to face **negative pressure next year**, driven by broader fiscal issues across Europe, not just in France.
* 🇨🇳 In contrast, Chinese stocks have seen a **remarkable 25% increase** over the last three months, and Hong Kong stocks have risen by **15%**, reflecting a **positive shift in market sentiment**.
* 📈 Despite this growth, expectations for a **rapid market rally akin to 2009** are unrealistic, as the market is more likely to experience **gradual improvement** rather than **explosive gains**.
* 🏛 The Chinese government is focusing on sustainable growth by implementing policies aimed at **boosting consumer spending while stabilizing the property market**, rather than fostering speculative investment.
* 🛍 Although the measures taken may not meet the high expectations of investors, the commitment to **market stability** indicates a government that is **attentive to economic conditions**.
* 🔍 Overall, the Chinese market story is characterized by **cautious optimism**, suggesting a shift towards **more sustainable economic growth** rather than a return to previous highs.

Just to stick with the France thing. Mark, it does seem Phil was saying it does seem as if markets are giving the president time to find another option. You have to wonder how long that patience lasts as year-end looms.

Yeah, I think that will be the case at the moment. In terms of that, I think people have realised, maybe belatedly after the initial tension, that spending may not be too bad while they still struggle to get a government under some of the emergency measures.

So I think the front story stays long-term negative, but I'm not sure you play the bearish scenario in any short-term basis, and I think that's the kind of story for next year, which makes it very hard.

I am someone who thinks that the euro will be the outlet for negative pressure in Europe next year, and I think it'll be around the fiscal concerns, around the debt concerns, not just around France, but across the whole region. But it will be very, very hard to plan

the short term because the ECB has many backstop measures now. And the fact is that while all these negative headlines are in the politics and the government, they are not the core concern of excess spending. Ultimately, emergency measures can curtail that.

Well, it's not giving the Chinese government much latitude, though. Why not? Well, the talk is good. We keep getting disappointed, though. Do we need to see action in order for the market to actually respond positively next time?

Look, we've been having this debate today. Chinese stocks are up 25% over the last three months. Hong Kong stocks are up 15% over the last three months. It's a pretty wonderful return in any world.

And that's since, I mean, it was about three months ago that they suddenly said, 'Hey, we're going to try fixing the market's problems.' I think what people are mistaking is they want a 2009-type rally.

They want the stock market to double in a year. We're not going to get that. This is going to be a stock market that continues to be higher. Both Hong Kong stocks and Chinese stocks are higher than they were a year ago.

Now, obviously, they did badly for most of the year until three months ago. The corner has been turned. It is not going to be a crazy rally, though. It's going to be just a more positive story than the bleak, gloomy story of the last few years.

I think the Chinese government is winning, and I think they're actually doing it right by not encouraging crazy animal spirits, but getting something more sustainable. They have committed to policies that will bring about more consumer spending, haven't they?

From a market's perspective, what are the types of policies that we're watching for on that front that would really make a difference? I think people want to see more of the consumer getting better, as you mentioned. And to go with that point, it is true that this market is not running away with itself.

They keep on being superficially disappointed. But the fact is the government has said they do care about the market, and that has been seen, even though much of the world has been disappointed by the extent of the measures. And it wasn't the big bazooka they

wanted.
The stock market continues to do absolutely fine overall, and I think that shows that this is a government that is focused on the market; they're going to try to stabilize the property market, not start a new bull market in property.

And they're going to try to support the consumer on the other side, which means that they want more sustainable growth. That's going to be okay and better insulate against potential trade measures next year. So the China story is good, not brilliant.

Markets in 3 Minutes

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Bloomberg Technology

Market Patience with France's Economic Situation

Markets are giving the French president time to find solutions.

Spending may not be as bad as initially feared due to emergency measures.

Long-term outlook is negative, but short-term bearish scenarios are uncertain.

Euro is expected to bear the brunt of negative pressure in Europe next year due to fiscal and debt concerns.

ECB's backstop measures make short-term planning difficult; excess spending is not the core concern.

Analysis of the Chinese Market's Response to Government Policies

Chinese and Hong Kong stocks have seen significant gains in the last three months.

Market expectations are unrealistic; a 2009-style rally is not anticipated.

Market performance has improved significantly in the last three months, although it won't be a dramatic rally.

The Chinese government's approach is considered successful, focusing on sustainable growth.

Market participants want to see improvements in consumer spending.

China's Economic Policies and Market Stability

The government's commitment to market stability is evident despite the scale of measures.

The stock market is performing well, indicating a government focus on market stabilization.

The government aims for sustainable growth, supporting the consumer and mitigating potential trade risks.