China's Satellite Internet Constellations: Competing with Starlink

China's Qianfan constellation, rivaling Starlink, aims to provide global internet access.

### China's Ambitious Satellite Internet Plans: Competing with Starlink
* 🚀 In early December, China launched its third batch of low Earth orbit satellites for the Qianfan constellation, aiming to **rival SpaceX's Starlink** with a total of **15,000 satellites**.
* 🌐 Other projects like Guo Wang and Honghu-3 plan to deploy **13,000 and 10,000 satellites**, respectively, indicating a **significant increase in China's investment in satellite systems** since 2021, driven by **Starlink's success**.
* 📊 Despite being the country with the highest number of internet users, China has the **second-largest unconnected population globally**, highlighting the need for **competitive satellite internet services**.
* 🌌 China's broader ambitions in space reflect its view of space as a **technological frontier**, with plans to **land astronauts on the moon by 2030** and establish a **lunar base by 2035**.
* 📈 China is also investing heavily in satellite internet, with over **$14 billion allocated to space activities** in 2023, although it faces challenges in launching satellites due to **lagging reusable rocket technology**.
* 🌍 The geopolitical implications of providing satellite internet are significant, as Starlink poses a **threat to China's censorship regime** by offering **uncensored content**, prompting China to **develop its own alternatives**.
* 🛰 With increasing competition from other global players like OneWeb and Amazon's Project Kuiper, China sees the necessity of **establishing its satellite internet capabilities** to maintain influence, particularly in regions **underserved by existing services**.
* ⚠ As the number of low Earth orbit satellites grows, concerns about space debris and regulatory frameworks are mounting, with experts warning that the **lack of governance could lead to dangerous collisions and environmental impacts**.

In early December, China launched its third batch of low Earth orbit, or LEO, internet satellites for a constellation called Qianfan, or "Thousand Sails" as it's also known. The project aims to rival SpaceX's Starlink and will

be made up of 15,000 satellites. You're seeing just the very beginnings of China's bid to create something competitive with Starlink. Another project, Guo Wang, has plans to put in place a

13,000-satellite constellation. A third Chinese project aimed at providing global satellite internet from space is Honghu-3, which would comprise 10,000 satellites. It has yet to launch any of them into space.

There has been a marked increase in investment in satellite systems in China, really starting at the beginning of 2021. This investment follows Starlink's massive success and the opportunity to fill in some

of the gaps in Starlink's service. Not the whole world is yet connected by Starlink. There are still a few blind spots, so to speak, partly because some countries do not want to participate and provide Starlink to their inhabitants, especially if

we're thinking about the free and independent internet access that Starlink provides. We can definitely see how actors like Russia or China might not want that. So there's definitely still room for another actor or provider to enter the market.

specifically with those needs in mind. Although China leads the world with the highest number of internet users, the country also has the second-highest unconnected population in the world, after India. In terms of China's broader plan for rivaling the U.S.

I would say, as a science and technology power, they view space as an emerging technological frontier, one where the projection of power will be incredibly important. And you can see the money that they're already investing in other aspects of their space

program. So, for example, recently, they landed a probe for the first time on the far side of the moon and brought back soil samples. They have a goal to land astronauts on the moon by 2030, and to even potentially establish a

lunar base in the south pole of the moon by 2035. So clearly, they take seriously the geopolitical implications of being able to rival the U.S. when it comes to space. Catching up to Starlink will be a tall order for China,

meant to offer high-speed internet to customers in remote and underserved areas. Starlink already has nearly 7,000 operational satellites in orbit and serves around 5 million customers in over 100 countries, according to SpaceX.

SpaceX hopes to eventually expand its megaconstellation to as many as 42,000 satellites. China is aiming for a similar scale between GW, Qianfan, and Honghu-3. China hopes to eventually

We have around 38,000 satellites zooming around the planet. Development of these projects is closely linked with the Chinese government, though China has been increasingly opening its space projects to the private sector. Guo Wang, a fully state-backed, 100% state-owned enterprise...

owned enterprise constellation, the operating company for Guo Wang, China Satellite Networks Limited, was established about three and a half years ago. Again, a fully state-owned company under the direct control of the State Council.

Thousand Sails, also called Qianfan (which means Thousand Sails in Chinese), is a largely government-controlled enterprise. The Shanghai government is the largest shareholder through an investment corporation.  The Chinese Academy of Sciences...

has a significant presence in Shanghai in the context of building satellites, and is a big shareholder as well.  The last second-tier constellation, the Honghu constellation, is being developed by Hongqing Technology...

a sister company of LandSpace, a reasonably well-established Chinese launch company. This project also comes as a result of the opening up of the constellation space to more private involvement, which started about

a year ago. Like most companies in China, the exact financing is a little opaque. However, we know these companies are state-backed and likely have significant funding.

Coming from the Chinese government to support their efforts. In 2023, China ranked second in terms of government investment in space, with the government pouring over $14 billion into the nation's space activities. The only country that spent more last year was the U.S.,

which allocated over $73 billion to space activities. But while funding may not be a challenge for building out China's internet constellations, getting these satellites into space may be. China is trying to make up the ground and put in place

thousands of satellites. It requires reusable rockets that can actually launch those in a cost-efficient way. Right now, my understanding is that China is lagging considerably when it comes to mastering reusable rocket technology, something that SpaceX has been able to do

very successfully. Will China have enough rockets to let Guo Wang launch 10,000 satellites by 2030? Definitely not. But will they have enough for them to launch a thousand? I would say so. There is still a bottleneck of launches in China, but it

seems the constellation operators have themselves recognized this, and you have kind of supply-side tendencies of a bunch of commercial launch companies that may, in a year or two, start to ramp up their launch cadence. Increasing its launch capacity is crucial for

China, as the country faces a time crunch for getting its satellites into orbit. Any satellite constellation has to be approved by the ITU. That's the International Telecommunications Union. Guo Wang has received the licenses they need by

the ITU. But also these licenses do come with deadlines. So China will need to launch the first satellites using all of the frequencies they plan to employ by 2027, and launch 10% of the total number of

satellites by September 2029. When it comes to low Earth orbit satellite internet, China is playing catch-up. Aside from Starlink, European-based OneWeb has also launched over 630 low Earth orbit internet satellites.

Amazon, too, has plans for a large LEO constellation called Project Kuiper. It will be made up of over 3,000 satellites, though the company has only launched two prototype satellites so far. So the question becomes, with so much

competition, why would China even bother pouring money and effort into such mega-constellations? Starlink has really shown that it is able to bring internet access to individuals and citizens in remote corners, and provide an ability for citizens to

access the internet and whatever websites, whatever apps they would like. And I think we know with the Great Firewall that for China, a big push has been to censor what citizens can access. And so for them, they say, well, this

presents a real threat. If Starlink can provide uncensored content either to our citizens or to individuals in countries allied with us, that is something that could really pierce through our censorship regime. And so we need to come up with an alternative.

In certain countries, China could see this as almost like a differentiator. It's like, "well, yes, we're not as quick to market, but hey, we will censor the heck out of your internet if you'd like us to, and we'll do it with a

smile on our faces." Experts say that while Chinese constellations will likely not be the choice internet provider for places like the U.S., Western Europe, Canada, and other U.S. allies, plenty of other regions could be open

to a Chinese internet provider. There are a couple of geographic areas in particular that might be attractive for a Starlink-like competitor, specifically one made by China, including China itself, Russia, for example.

But also Afghanistan and Syria are not yet covered by Starlink. And there are also large parts of Africa that aren't yet covered. We've seen that 70% of 4G infrastructure in the continent of Africa is already built by Huawei.

So having a space-based perspective to that might further build inroads there. They view the provision of technological infrastructure as an important means of preserving and spreading their influence. It's a way to kind of get a lock-in

effect, where countries that are swing states or countries that are kind of near allies end up buying Chinese technology, relying on Chinese goods in order to build that out. And then, as you upgrade to new networks to 6G and so forth, you're already locked into a

Chinese ecosystem. Over time, that not only brings in a significant amount of revenue to Chinese firms and to the Chinese state, but it also allows for a greater degree of political influence. China has already signed at least 46 agreements with 19

countries and regions to promote global space cooperation, but Chinese/U.S. partnerships are more complicated. Under the Wolf Amendment, which was enacted in 2011, Congress prohibits NASA from using federal funds to engage bilaterally with China on space cooperation

due to national security concerns. This includes not allowing China to be part of the International Space Station. But aside from being a tool for geopolitical influence, having a proprietary satellite internet constellation is increasingly becoming a

national security necessity, especially when ground internet infrastructure is crippled during war. When it comes to the difference that Starlink technology has played in the Ukraine battlefield, one of the big leaps we've seen has been the emergence of

drone warfare and the connected battlefield, in the sense that sensors are everywhere, and being able to see with transparency what your enemy is doing, and then to coordinate different weapons to respond back. All of that is dependent upon internet

connectivity. Having satellite-based weaponry is something that's viewed as a crucial military advantage. And so I think China sees all that and says investing in this is absolutely critical for our national security goals. While the utility of low Earth orbit satellite

The impact of space systems is undeniable in the realm of national security and geopolitical influence; they could also play a significant role in the development of future technologies. Consider the number of businesses spurred by satellites providing global positioning, navigation, and timing services, for example.

In 2020, China launched the final satellite for its Beidou satellite system, a direct rival to the U.S. Global Positioning System (GPS). When the U.S. first deployed the GPS system,

no one could have imagined Uber or other ride-hailing or food delivery services—all the various services we take for granted today—enabled by satellite navigation.  And with low Earth orbit communication satellites,

you could have very low-latency communication for high-frequency trading, for example. Sending a signal from Singapore to London takes 12 milliseconds over Earth. Through space, it could take eight

milliseconds. Although a few milliseconds may seem minuscule in high-frequency trading, even one millisecond can impact profitability. Autonomous vehicles and augmented and virtual reality are other technologies that would

benefit from low-latency communication. From a Chinese perspective, they can afford the risk of launching this and it not working out commercially. But if they don't launch it, then if...

Say, some incredible next-generation autonomous driving or something like that are enabled by having this really low-latency communication, it puts them at a disadvantage. But as the number of low Earth satellites in orbit continues to increase, all operators will face some

tough challenges, including a very crowded orbital field and proliferation of space debris. The worst-case scenario, known as the Kessler syndrome, posits that when two objects collide in space, they generate a domino effect of more and

more debris to the point that certain orbits will become unusable. Unlike geostationary satellites, which circle Earth above the equator and appear to be fixed above a specific point on Earth, the orbits of low Earth satellites can be much more diverse.

For this reason, the exact physical space that LEO satellites occupy is not determined by a regulating body like it is for geostationary satellites. The big concern that we have, effectively, is that we don't really have anything that governs low Earth

orbit. So we've got the International Telecommunication Union, the ITU, and that gives us our frequency slots for low Earth orbit. But it doesn't dictate the actual physical space that you can inhabit in low Earth orbit.

At the moment, really, there's no real, you know, rules of the road for low Earth orbit. Without these "rules of the road", every company is responsible for safeguarding their own satellites from collisions and getting out of the way

Should any such threat appear. If you're operating a constellation, you will have your computers calculating where you're going and any potential collisions, what we call conjunction analysis. And it might be that your algorithm tells you in 12

hours we are going to potentially collide with another constellation. At the moment, there is no real mechanism to sort of record this and figure out who needs to move, because obviously none of the operators want to move because it costs them fuel.

And ultimately, the amount of fuel is what dictates your satellite's life. Scientists have also brought up concerns about how the disposal of these low Earth orbit satellites, many of which are designed to last about five years on average, will affect the Earth.

Another concern about the overcrowding of low Earth orbit, or also what happens at the end of a satellite's life, which is typically in low Earth orbit. They were simply sort of dragged back down

towards the atmosphere and they would simply burn up. But because a lot of satellites these days are built out of aluminum, we don't really know what it does to the atmosphere. If it actually harms it, perhaps thins it.

Finally, scientists are concerned about satellites interfering with space observation. Still, with as many as 58,000 satellites expected to be launched by 2030, according to one government estimate, the growth of LEO constellations is unlikely

to slow down, and some experts say the United States needs to brace for more competition when it comes to the space race with China. I think China will catch up. I don't think that means that China will exceed or surpass the United States. I think we will continue to innovate here, but I don't think we can continue to rely upon the fact that China remains so far behind in this area. I think they have the resources.

I think they have the motivation to catch up to the United States, and most likely we'll see them do that over the next decade. It's something the U.S. government is already hedging against. China is putting up their own version of Starlink and

Kuiper right now. And think about the geopolitical implications of China being able to provide high-speed internet all across the world, pairing it with Belt and Road, and their own content moderation filters. So we should want America's innovators, Kuiper,

Starlink, to have all the support they need to succeed, and that's what I'm going to try to do with the FCC.

How China Is Challenging Elon Musk’s Starlink Satellite Service

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CNBC

China launched its third batch of LEO internet satellites for the Qianfan constellation, aiming to compete with SpaceX's Starlink.

The Guo Wang project plans a 13,000-satellite constellation.

The Honghu-3 project aims for a 10,000-satellite constellation, but hasn't launched yet.

Increased investment in Chinese satellite systems started in 2021, aiming to fill gaps in Starlink's coverage.

Starlink's service isn't global due to some countries' unwillingness to participate, particularly regarding uncensored internet access.

China's Broader Space Ambitions and Geopolitical Implications

China views space as a technological frontier for power projection.

Recent achievements include landing a probe on the far side of the moon and plans for a lunar base by 2035.

China aims to rival the U.S. in space, viewing it as a serious geopolitical matter.

Starlink has nearly 7,000 operational satellites and serves millions of customers.

China's combined constellations aim for a similar scale to Starlink.

Funding, Development, and Challenges of Chinese Constellations

Development is closely linked with the Chinese government, increasingly involving the private sector.

Guo Wang is a fully state-owned enterprise.

Qianfan (Thousand Sails) is largely government-controlled.

Honghu is being developed by a private company, reflecting increasing private sector involvement.

Exact financing is opaque, but these companies are state-backed.

China ranked second in government space investment in 2023, behind the U.S.

A challenge is launching thousands of satellites cost-effectively, requiring reusable rockets, where China lags behind SpaceX.

Increasing launch capacity is crucial, and commercial launch companies may increase their launch cadence.

ITU licenses have deadlines: initial launches by 2027 and 10% of satellites by 2029.

China faces competition from Starlink, OneWeb, and Project Kuiper.

China's motivation is partly to counter Starlink's uncensored internet access, which threatens China's censorship.

China might offer censored internet access as a differentiator in certain regions.

Potential target regions include China, Russia, Afghanistan, Syria, and parts of Africa.

Providing technological infrastructure is a way for China to spread its influence and create a lock-in effect.

Geopolitical and National Security Aspects

The Wolf Amendment prohibits NASA from bilateral space cooperation with China due to national security concerns.

A proprietary satellite internet constellation is seen as a national security necessity.

Starlink's role in the Ukraine conflict highlights the importance of satellite connectivity for drone warfare and connected battlefields.

Satellite-based weaponry is a crucial military advantage.

Space systems impact national security and geopolitical influence, and could play a significant role in future technologies.

China's Beidou system rivals the U.S. GPS, enabling various services.

LEO communication satellites enable low-latency communication for high-frequency trading, autonomous vehicles, and AR/VR.

China can afford the risk of the project not working out commercially, but falling behind in low-latency communication could put them at a disadvantage.

Challenges and Concerns Regarding LEO Satellites

A crowded orbital field and space debris pose challenges, with the Kessler syndrome as a worst-case scenario.

Unlike geostationary satellites, LEO satellite orbits are more diverse and not regulated in terms of physical space.

There's a lack of 'rules of the road' for LEO, leaving companies responsible for collision avoidance.

Collision analysis is done, but there's no mechanism to determine who should move to avoid collisions.

Concerns exist about the disposal of LEO satellites and their impact on the atmosphere.

Concerns also exist about the interference of satellites with space observation.

The growth of LEO constellations is unlikely to slow down.

The U.S. needs to brace for more competition from China in the space race.

China's constellation development, combined with Belt and Road initiatives and content moderation, has significant geopolitical implications.

The U.S. should support its own innovators to maintain a competitive edge.