Global Economy: Market Reaction to Weakening US Job Market

The US job market weakens, consumer confidence drops, and the Fed's potential rate cut sparks market concerns.

### Global Economic Outlook: Fed and BOJ Decisions, Consumer Confidence, and Market Expectations
* 🇺🇸 The US job openings report showed a **slight decrease to 8.18 million**, but still indicates **solid demand for workers** despite slowing wage growth.
* 📉 The JOLTS survey, which mirrors continued unemployment claims, suggests a **potential increase in unemployment** as job openings decline.
* 🏦 The Federal Reserve is expected to **hold rates steady** at the current meeting, but may signal a **rate cut in September** based on market conditions.
* 🇯🇵 The Bank of Japan is considering raising rates and reducing quantitative easing, in contrast to other central banks' **easing policies**.
* 🇪🇺 Inflation in Germany unexpectedly quickened, challenging the **ECB's current policy stance**.
* 📊 The bond market is pricing in a **potential rate cut**, with the **10-year/2-year yield curve flattening**.
* 💼 Consumer confidence is mixed, with **present situation index declining** while **expectations index improved** but remains **below the recession threshold**.
* 💻 SBE Technologies, a cybersecurity company, is highlighted as a potential investment opportunity with **significant revenue growth** and **client retention**.

it's a global alert. I'm your Steve Van Meter, and thanks for joining me today on our show. Today at 24 hours, this news will stun the world and set markets crashing. I'm going to show you what the world leaders are about to announce and why the markets aren't going to like it. Plus, we have a sponsor of today's show. We'd like to welcome SBE Technologies back. You can find them on the CSSE under symbol CYBT and on the OTC QB under symbol CYBC. They're a cybersecurity company that just posted a year-over-year revenue increase of 693%. And on the back of that, I'm going to show you an incredible chart setup. This is one you don't want to miss out on because the last time we saw this setup, their stock doubled in value. Again, you don't want to miss out. Stay tuned to the end of the show or check out the pinned comment or description for more information. Now, let's head over to Bloomberg where I want to take a look at

what just happened in the US data to set up the move world leaders are going to make tomorrow, and US job openings come in above forecast after upward revision. And this was really something the market was not expecting. We continue to see data out of the regional fed surveys and the purchasing managers index that indicates that hours work are shrinking. We're seeing jobs lost. We even saw in Texas recently that there're having really real struggles in the manufacturing sector as oil sells off. But yet according to the government, we're seeing an increase in job me. But it's the trend that matters and it's not going the right way. Available positions decreased to 8.18 million from an upper revised 8.23 million reading in the prior month. This is something the market didn't like at all. The report still shows their solid demand for workers even though employers have pulled back on high rate and wage growth has slowed. The unemployment rate Rose for a third straight month in June consistent with a recent runup in the number of Americans.

receiving jobless benefits. And what the market really wanted here is to see this report show that job openings were in further decline, suggesting that there could be a near-term Fed rate cut that would really give the market the juice it wanted. The problem is that's highly unlikely to happen now, but let's take a look at what's going on with the JOLTS survey because it's largely a mirror of the weekly continued unemployment claims. You can see as more workers in red hit the unemployment line and stay there, well, what that means is there's fewer job openings, thus continuing the feedback loop in the labor market that puts more and more workers on the unemployment line and keeps them stuck there. You can see that happened again in the global financial crisis and even started to as we headed into the pandemic. And now, while we're not seeing a big increase in continued claims to match the downward spiral in the JOLTS survey, what it suggests is that continued claims are going to head higher. And the reason this is bad news

for the markets well there's one simple chart because there is a strong correlation between the jol survey. Which, mind you, is one of the most inaccurate surveys the government puts out because there isn't a lot of response to it, meaning the government has to fill in the gaps. But then nevertheless, you see the relationship between the equity Market as we look at the highflying NASDAQ 100 shown in red against the jolt survey in blue, and you can see where job openings go means the economy is going and in true with that the equity markets Follow. The Only Exception here is going in the pandemic we see the jol survey start to move lower markets said not a chance once again the markets bucking the trend saying that they believe the economy is booming but the economy itself says not a chance we're not booming at all but if you're looking for an incredible chart set up to get out of some of those big tech stocks you've got and you want to see an incredible opportunity look at SBE technology again.

check them out on the CSC under symbol CBT on the OTC QB under symbol CBCF. Because you can look back here over the last 6 months and you can see the price bottomed here into the supply Zone. Can you imagine if you would a dollar cost average in here right around 11 cents? Well, look what happened. It more than doubled in a matter of a few days. Well, we're seeing that setup again in here, indicating that this would be a wonderful spot to dollar cost average again, looking for another big Catalyst as it drives a stock from this lower Supply Zone up into that upper Zone that could net you a possible 100% return. That's right, double your money. How about that for an opportunity? Stay tuned for more information because now that we see that the jobs Market is getting weaker, that the trend is weaker, that we look at confidence of consumers to get a path of the economy, and the overall confidence ticked up as we look at the conference board here. But consumers are downgrading the presence and I want to see how this

all feeds into the decisions that are coming tomorrow from world leaders because it shouldn't be a surprise. But the reaction of the market is going to be huge as it's likely going to continue to sell off. The present situation index based on consumer assessment of current business and labor market conditions declined to 133.6k from 135.5 last month, indicating consumers less confident while of course the overall index rose. How about expectations based on consumer short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions? This got better, went up to 78.2. And keep in mind though, it's still below 80, the threshold which usually signals a recession ahead. So what we see here is that consumers are in recession mode. That means their spending should drop, and sure enough, that's what the conference board said for the eth straight months. As we turn to zero, had you covered the story as well in the last nine. The headline conference board consumer conference Prince was revised lower in June, suggesting that we're going to likely see the current report revised down next.

month as well. But look at this. What you see here with the present situation, it's no better than it was back, of course, in 2021. And how about for consumer confidence? Well, it's going nowhere, but yet consumers are optimistic, perhaps wondering if it can get worse. Well, the answer is it can. As we look into further details in the report, we see automobile purchases in blue, home purchases in green, and major appliances purchases in yellow, all down, suggesting consumer spending is going to drop. And then what you find out is that where confidence goes, spending follows, and next thing you know, the economy continues to head lower. It'll bring stocks down with it. But the problem is it's not fast enough for the decisions coming tomorrow, the second one of the day from the FED. As we turn to the Wall Street Journal, as investors on alert for fed signals of September rate cut. And that's what everybody is hoping for right now, is there's going to be a cut in September. But if we're looking for a clear kind of evidence at the next

meeting, which is coming tomorrow, that the Fed's going to cut. Well, that's not exactly how it works. The central bank is widely expected to hold its benchmark short-term interest rate steady in a range between 5 and a quarter and 5 and a half percent, a two-decade high, while setting the table to begin a series of reductions at the next meeting in mid. Now, if you're expecting again Fed Chair Dr. and Po to come out and say, Hey, you know what, we know in September we're definitely going to cut rates, they're never going to say that. He's going to allude to the fact that there's still data dependent and they're uncertain of what the data is going to suggest, but there's a possibility that if the data looks and continues to trend, that they would be open to a rate cut. And what this is called is flying a trial balloon, and they're going to do that in the post-meeting statement. As a Wall Street Journal goes on to say, the statement is

heavily debated by the 12 voting members of the Fed's rate-setting committee, and seemingly trivial wordsmithing changes while they're being watched will be meaning and framing the outlook for a September rate cut. And language that acknowledges recent improvement in inflation and a more equal balance of risk, together with any changes to the forward guidance, set the stage for Pal's press conference. There he can elaborate on how officials are approaching the question of rate cuts, and believe me, he's going to get plenty of them. And that's why we're starting to see this negative reaction in the market all of a sudden. Stocks are just coming down, but keep in mind August is, we've talked about on the Sunday show, is one of the worst months for liquidity. Money actually flows out of stocks, so there's an expectation we should continue to see a decline, particularly in election years as we head into November. It's very normal to see a downward move in stocks. But as we now look at why the Fed's

going to fly a trial balloon is to gauge the market reaction. This is really important because the FED doesn't do anything unless the market gives it the nod that it's ready. And how do we know that? Well, we can look at two-year treasury shown in red against the federal fund rate in blue. Let's go back to 2006, and we see two-year treasury yields started to lead the federal funds rate down, and the FED said no, we're not ready to do that. And two-year yields came up, pulled back a second time, and the FED said nope, we're still not ready. The third time, the FED said okay, hey, we're ready to listen here, and next thing you know, they started to cut rates, and two-year yields came plunging down. But looking back to 2019, fed pal didn't wait as two-year yields headed lower and continued to head lower, eventually finally bowed to the pressure of the market and cut rates. This time you look back and you see two-year yields fell as

the market said fed you're going too far. Fed said no, we didn't. We went. We didn't go far enough to your yields. Once again, says we think you're pushing the limit. Fed said no, this time third time is a charm. The FED wants to know what the market expects, and if you see a continued decline in 2-year yield, that will all but bake in the cake a cut for September. So, this is all about the FED suggesting to the markets they're prepared to cut if the markets tell them to do it. We'll find out tomorrow, but the reaction from the equity Market here is likely to be negative. The reason why is because the equity Market knows the US consumer is weak. They can see it in the Jel stated. They can see it in the conference board data, and they're concerned that US consumers without a rate cut over the next two months aren't going to spend, and that's going to make next quarter's earnings look ugly. Several former fed officials and private sector economists have said that all

kinds of arguments justifying a cut in September. That would be better news on inflation and signs of slower spending and hiring that are raising the risk of unnecessary weakness are equally applicable now. And that the Central Bank should cut rates on Wednesday. And that's a wonderful thing about former officials. They kind of realize when you get to a certain point, you need to cut. Because what's going to happen is when the cuts don't work. And I want you to be sure that you understand. They are not going to work. That the FED is going to have to come back out and say, well, monetary policy works with long and variable lags. We don't know how long, but we do know they're long and they're variable. Putting the argument of why didn't you cut now. That's what former officials are saying. They need to react on it because yes, they will probably cut in September. But by then, it'll be too late. And still, top FET officials have signaled they aren't fully confident that inflation is on a

durable trajectory to their 2% Target after the Fed's June meeting. Pal said the first cut would be consequential decision and you want to get it right. That means he wants all the data to back him and all the members of the board. And putting aside the merits of a July cut, most officials have S on a rate cut isn't warranted yet. And there's the key point. He's listening to the market and to his members of the board. As a result, the rate reduction on Wednesday looks panicky and I think it's likely to be unhelpful. This from a professor of the Yale School of Management. And you've got it right because what is suggesting based on the data there's no argument to cut here. Inflation's at 3% of the CBII. It's not at two yet. Now will it be closer to that by the next meeting? Possibly. The JOL survey not telling us any red flags. So everything the Fed looks at, nothing's telling them you need to cut now. And if they do it'll send the

market into Panic. The problem is the market is already starting to panic on the back that consumers are cutting their spending. But before we hear from the FED, we're going to hear from another Central Bank. It's the Bank of Japan as they're going to make a big call on rate and QT Pace. We're going to see the opposite now because here in the US, we know the FED has already started tapering its Bond purchases, which is helping out the US government issue less debt. Maybe this is a soft form of easing, but in Japan, they're about to do the exact opposite. They're not looking to cut rates; many people think they're going to raise them. In fact, some of 14 of 48 economists predict the BOJ's board will raise its rate from a current range of 0 to 0.1%, while almost no one is ruling out the risk of such move. As for QT or quantitative tightening, the bank will outline plans to reduce this monthly Bond bind over a one- and two-year period.

And this is staggering. Meanwhile, we look around the world, central banks are talking about cutting rates, perhaps easing back on their bond purchases. The opposite is happening in Japan. The reason why is for so many years they have tried it to get inflation. Now that they've got it, they've got more than they want. So what you have here is a mismatch of policy. It's going to persist into September. And if you think a 0.1% increase there is going to make a difference, it's not. It could actually destabilize the equity markets there because as long as the FED holds rates high, money is going to flow from other parts of the world into the US. And that is going to constrict, of course, the amount of dollars in the global economy and set up an all-out crash in the markets as Germany's inflation unexpectedly quickens and challenge the ECB. Now the ECB has already met, but look what's coming in September. You're going to see cuts around the board 'cause consumer prices now went up from 2 and a

half to 2.6%, kind of bucking the downward trend. In combined with uneven growth reports showing an unexpected contraction in Germany, the inflation numbers will inform the ECB officials trying to work out whether the economy needs another cut in borrowing cost. Much more data will be available for the next meeting in September, and that's the truth. By September, the global economy is going to look absolutely horrible, and you're going to see cuts across the board. Even the Bank of Japan will likely reverse its path as everybody starts to feel the pressure of what happens when you constrict the creation of credit and the global economy at such severe levels as we've already done. And yet history favors stock and bond bulls alike when the FOMC meets. Of course, not today, doesn't appear that's happening, but the bond bulls are benefiting, but not for long. We think a rallying in treasuries, at least into windy days. FOMC day is likely, according to City Bank strates. Financial conditions in the US have eased on FOMC.

seaweek as pal has generally delivered a more dovish tone than expected. And yes, he is expected to suggest a September cut is coming, but not without the Market's validation, of course. The risk here is when we see the FED cut, it's not once, it's not twice. By the time they get around it and due to the alleged long invariable lags, it means the economy is already spiraling into recession. We have the data to back that, of course. Every Thursday, we'll get new unemployment data to find out if more Americans are hitting the unemployment line. But I can tell you, while everyone's bullish and about stocks fed's cutting rates, it's not at all because what it likely leads to is an inversion of the yield curve. And here you can see in blue, this is a 10-year 2-year, and what this means is, was underneath that black line, it means two-year yields, which are very sensitive to the funds rate, are higher than Market expectations and higher than the 10-year yield when the FED starts cutting.

2-year yields come down. 10 years will follow the rest of the curve. And what that means is we're all but certainly headed into a massive bear market this time. The stock market ignored the cuse of the yield curve, suggesting at first they bought into it, but now saying no. The market's got it wrong. We'll wait till they find out there's not going to be one cut or two cuts but a lot of them, which is then why you need to set up for opportunities to invest in companies like our sponsor of today's show, SBE Technologies. I've shown you an incredible chart on how you can dollar-cost average into this with a potential of doubling your money. We'll show you some more charts, but let's take a review of who SBE Technologies is again. Everything about them is in the pinned comment and description below. You can find them on the CSSE under symbol CBT and on the OTC QB under symbol CYBCF. And here you can see that they have SBOM Studio, which helps its

clients achieve improve cyber security outcomes and a significant return on investment by automating and streamlining identifying and remediating software vulnerabilities. One Global Fortune 500 client of side beat saw a reduction of approximately 500 hours of effort for software-based projects with open-Source components, representing 75% or an estimated $50,000 Us in savings per project. With the key benefits of vulnerability monitoring, automated risk analysis, and Regulatory Compliance, sbom Studio serves a broad range of users in the software supply chain. As a global cyber security company, side Beach is proud to serve the needs of a diverse Blue Chip customer base and is an emerging Pioneer and the most compelling product offering for managing sbom. Let's take a look at some of the recent PRS they've achieved a significant year-over-year Revenue increase of 693. The product is fully built and operational, having validated its approach with 100% client retention. So we see mainly us and European Blue Chip clients. It's estimated 75% of cost save.

per project at large enterprises, the market for ES bomb is exploding in the EU and the US. Federal regulations across industries are forcing new software compliance standards. In fact, large medical device companies use side beats, and if they have trials with top prospects track record states over 85% of clients who trial the product have bought a license. The co was quoted saying the momentum will continue through the end of the year, and that means of course more revenue for side beats and setting up that big move in their stock. The National Security Agency or NSA and the US Department of Defense recommended side beats in a best practices report. The only commercial services featured in its space. And again, you can find side beats on the CSC un symbol CBT and on the OTC QB un symbol Cy BCF. And this is a dollar cost opportunity give we go back to the chart before, and I want to show you the technicals here because as we see that bottoming part here, could you imagine if you would a dollar cost average in over.

this point here, and you see momentum rising off of the relative strength index and the moving average convergence divergence, or MACD. It's happening again right now, and so it's setting up an opportunity to be buying in at levels. Now, these charts are showing market open at 11 cents, setting up a move all the way into this upper supply zone right around 22 to 24 cents, which could potentially double your money. And as we zoom into the 30-day chart, you see the volume profile line at 14 cents, sellers just above the current price level, buyers down here in the 11 to 12 and 13 cent level, looking for that big breakout that based on the charts could double your money in a very quick time. But as always with any company we feature on the show, you're under no obligation to purchase their stock. Sure, do your own research before placing any trades. With that, I'm Steve Vanmeer. Thanks for watching, thanks for being fans. Bye now.

Listen Now: In 24 Hours this News Will Stun the World (Markets Will Crash)

Steven Van Metre

Anticipated Global Announcement and Market Impact

World leaders are set to make a significant announcement, causing a negative reaction in the markets.

The US job openings have exceeded expectations, but the decrease in available positions and the rise in unemployment rate are signaling a concerning trend for the labor market and the economy.

The JOLTS survey's downward spiral and its correlation with the equity market indicate a potential increase in continued unemployment claims, which is likely to have a detrimental effect on the markets.

Potential Stock Opportunities and the Impact of Fed Decisions

The stock CBT on the OTC QB and CBCF have shown a pattern of doubling in value, presenting a potential opportunity for investors.

Consumer confidence is declining, indicating a potential decrease in spending and a negative impact on the economy, which could in turn affect stock prices.

The Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady for now, but there is hope and speculation for a rate cut in September, with future decisions dependent on economic data trends.

The Fed's rate-setting committee is in a heated debate over the outlook for a September rate cut, with the market expecting a negative reaction if it doesn't happen.

The Fed is closely monitoring the two-year treasury yields to gauge the market's expectations, with a continued decline likely pushing for a rate cut in September.

Former Fed officials and economists are advocating for a rate cut, expressing concerns about the weakness of the US consumer and the risk of unnecessary economic weakness.

The Fed's Rate Cut Decision and the Bank of Japan's Different Approach

The Fed is hesitant to cut rates in July, despite market panic, as the data doesn't strongly support it, potentially causing more harm than good.

On the other hand, the Bank of Japan is considering a possible rate increase, in contrast to the global trend of rate cuts, due to unexpected high inflation.

This mismatch in central banks' policies may lead to market instability and a flow of money into the US, impacting the global economy.

The Impact of Inflation Numbers on the Global Economy

The inflation rate in the Eurozone has risen to 2.

6%, defying the downward trend and putting pressure on the ECB to consider another cut in borrowing costs.

The FOMC is expected to take a dovish stance and suggest a future rate cut, but the potential impact of multiple cuts on the economy is causing concern.

The rising unemployment rate and the inversion of the yield curve are signaling a possible recession, leading to a looming bear market and the need for strategic investment opportunities.

The Impact of Side Beat's SBOM Studio on Cyber Security

Side Beat's SBOM Studio helps clients save time and money by automating the identification and remediation of software vulnerabilities, with one Fortune 500 client seeing a 75% cost saving per project.

The product has gained recognition from global organizations, including the NSA and the US Department of Defense, and is experiencing a significant increase in revenue.

The company's stock is also projected to potentially double in value, making it a promising investment opportunity.