In the future, it is expected that the area will improve significantly, and while I can't predict what will happen in the next ten years, I do think that in about twenty years, it will become a much more recognized place compared to its current standing. Regarding Seoul, many people say that house prices will continue to rise due to a lack of supply. However, if you look at the actual inventory, it seems to be decreasing. Is there really a shortage of supply? Some people claim that there has been a shortage of supply for several years, while others argue that there is absolutely no shortage. This seems to be a matter of differing opinions. In my personal view, the absolute supply figures are indeed low. However, the question is whether this is critically low in relative terms. There are differing perspectives on this issue; some think it is severe, while others believe it is not that serious, even though it is low.

It seems that there is a perception that while the numbers may be small, they are not insignificant. However, if we look at the objective figures, it is true that they are small. Furthermore, there has not been much permitting in 2023, and since there will be none in 2024, one of the common discussions is that while we cannot be certain about 2024 and 2025, it is clear that there will definitely be fewer permits in 2026, 2027, and 2028. This is supported by existing data, so there shouldn't be much room for disagreement on that. However, some people argue that the numbers for 2024 and 2025 are not as small as expected. 

Here, I would like to point out one thing: the concept of a house. For example, if a new development is planned in Gyeonggi Province, it's important to note that Gyeonggi Province is quite vast. There are places like Pocheon, Yeoncheon, and Yangpyeong. For instance, if there were to be 10,000 new homes in Yangpyeong, what about the residents living in Hwaseong or Siheung?

You can't commute from there, right? So, while a certain quantity is necessary, it also needs to be well distributed. Looking ahead to the next two years, in Seoul, there are some areas like Gangdong and Dongdaemun, but most other regions have very little, almost none. In Gyeonggi Province, there are a few areas in the southern part, like Pyeongtaek and Osan, but Incheon is also somewhat concentrated, except for a little in the western part. Most areas really don’t have much. Because of this, there are claims that many regions are experiencing a slight shock in rental prices, but overall, that's not the case. The absolute volume of properties isn't excessively large either, so I think it's appropriate to view this as a supply shortage. That's my perspective. This year, especially, we can expect a difference in market prices for apartments.

The 청품 was incredibly hot, right? I heard that the waiting time for applications was around 40 hours. Will this phenomenon continue in the future? I think it might have to, because those who are aiming for applications are mostly people without homes. There are also many young people nowadays. With the increase in lottery systems, from their perspective, while they are trying to save money, the rising house prices can be quite overwhelming. Moreover, buying a house, if we speak frankly, I believe there are very few people who buy older buildings simply because they prefer them. It’s rare to find someone who says, I just like living on the fifth floor without an elevator. Most people are facing financial constraints. Ultimately, everyone wants to live in a new apartment, in a new house, but the issue is the money.

Due to limitations, one has to either give up on the area, the year of construction, or the scale, and thus compromise. Since I don't have much money saved up, and considering that it's a lottery system, we are essentially engaging in a fair competition of probabilities. However, the chance to acquire newly built properties is there. Additionally, in some areas, due to the price ceiling system, the difference in market prices can reach several hundred million won. Furthermore, on the day we are filming, there is also a non-priority application available, which has a market price difference of 800 million won. Considering these factors, it becomes clear that anyone who applies has the potential to win a lottery that could yield a profit of around 500 to 800 million won. With such opportunities unfolding right in front of us, it's hard to imagine that people wouldn't want to participate. Therefore, the interest in these applications will continue. The problem is that while some people will succeed, the chances of me being one of them are very low.

So I always say that you shouldn't just focus on this one thing. Unfortunately, recently, a friend of mine who lives in Gangnam won the lottery. We used to have meals together, and he won about ten billion won. He was someone who had been living without owning a home, and he finally hit the jackpot. How wonderful is that? Of course, the competition was enormous, but he was lucky. He had some money, but it was a huge win for him. However, the rest of the applicants all lost, right? They were all in the same situation. So, while one person made an incredible fortune, the majority ended up with nothing.

The structure of experiencing failure keeps repeating itself. But is this really the right structure? In fact, there are aspects that are somewhat unrelated to effort. No, I always say that the subscription system is truly flawed. This system was created back in the 60s and 70s when there was a severe housing shortage, and there was a need to quickly build many apartments. But now, it's not like there are hundreds of thousands of houses missing as before. Some people argue that because there are those without homes, we need to provide them with capital gains. Others say, I've been living without a home for years, but buying a house isn't something that has been prohibited. As I mentioned earlier, many people compromise and buy houses to live in. There are also those who deliberately choose not to buy. For instance, in Banpo, houses are priced at 2 billion or 3 billion won.

It's not that people who apply for housing don't have money and therefore don't buy homes. However, some individuals are benefiting immensely while others are not, which I personally find a bit unsatisfactory. Nevertheless, this system will likely remain in place, and I feel a bit sorry for many people who seem to be experiencing a kind of false hope. Now, if we take a light look at the provinces, let's talk about the five major cities: Busan, Ulsan, Daegu, Gwangju, Daejeon, and Sejong. Starting with Busan, as I mentioned earlier, I believe that both Busan and Daegu have a considerable number of trophy apartments. The economic scale there is definitely not small; it’s just that the area is currently a bit subdued. However, I still believe that these regions have substantial potential.

So from the perspective of the local people, it's like, Wow, living here is really impressive, and there are places where they can feel recognized, which are actually recovering now. For example, Daegu, which has a lot of unsold properties, is also showing signs of recovery. I believe that places like that will improve, but when it comes to whether the overall trend will rise, I get the feeling that, in the current situation, that's still a bit far off. Other regions are similar; as I mentioned earlier, there are some areas with trophy apartments that are somewhat ambiguous. In those places, even though there are efforts for redevelopment, they are still facing challenges. Overall, for the residents of those areas, it might be different, but for someone like me who lives in Seoul and strategically wants to invest in the provinces with my own money...

I don't think the current structure is good for people like this to go. So I keep saying that this Seoul phenomenon is artificially created. I hope this artificial situation can be resolved quickly, as that would allow 20 million people to live in the provinces. However, those people are currently facing significant economic challenges. I believe that if we continue down this path, it might not be good. While people view core locations in the provinces positively, many investors used to invest in the provinces. Now, even if housing prices begin to rise positively from next year, will gap investments still be difficult? I have done a lot of gap investments myself, and I still have a small apartment in the provinces that I've held for 10 years. However, those properties are now...

Now, I will talk about the psychology of people regarding gap investments. Ultimately, the probability of me actually living there is very low. I probably won't live there at all. I have a job in Seoul and I live in Seoul, so for example, if I bought a house in Chungbuk, the likelihood of me actually living there is quite low. Therefore, this is purely about buying a house, holding it, and then selling it to someone else. The potential buyers would either be actual residents or other multi-property investors. However, the second type of multi-property investor is currently in a blocked state. This is completely different from the strategy of having a single high-quality property. So, the first type of actual resident owner is the one who buys my house. In this case, the smart investment strategy also comes into play, which means there are wealthy gap investors and those who are not financially well-off.

It seems like there is gap investment happening. That is, people with a lot of money are buying really desirable trophy apartments in certain areas. For instance, places like Ulsan are seeing increases as well, and there is a lack of supply there. So, those who live in those cities and have the ability to buy the apartments they want for actual residence can do so. However, usually, those who dream of gap investment are looking to invest a small amount of money in regions where the difference between jeonse (a type of lease) and buying is small. They plan to buy and sell once the price increases by ten million or twenty million won, but I don’t think the odds of that strategy working out are very good right now. These days, the atmosphere is not as it used to be. It seems like it could come back, but there are too many preconditions for that, including having to deal with the current legal regulations.

There are many questions about whether regulations need to be relaxed and interest rates lowered. Additionally, when the full-scale reconstruction of the first new towns begins, how will housing prices be affected? What variables in the redevelopment industry will impact housing prices? 

First of all, the first new towns are currently performing quite well. Since they are designating leading districts, the application deadline for these districts is likely today or tomorrow. The expectation for reconstruction is high; if our apartment is included, the floor area ratio will be significantly increased. This means that people can move into new apartments without additional costs and potentially earn money. However, the government has stated that they will determine the order, whether it be first, second, or thirtieth, which has created a buzz around the new districts. It seems likely that these areas will be designated as leading districts.

The prices in the districts are soaring dramatically. However, this isn't to criticize the locals; rather, it's something that investors often discuss—price versus value. The value only increases after reconstruction, which means that before reconstruction, value is merely a matter of expectation. Prices, on the other hand, rise based on those expectations. This indicates that whether or not an area is designated as a leading district is very important. It is likely that it will be designated; the government will likely push for it in some way, regardless of the outcomes. However, there are many questions about when the second, third, fourth, and fifth phases will occur. Recently, I looked at some data regarding Bundang, and it states that the process will take ten years.

By 2035, they plan to reconstruct 100,000 homes. Some people might think, Isn't that possible? However, it usually takes over ten years to reconstruct a single apartment complex. But now, they are changing an entire city. They are incorporating parks and developing areas around stations, essentially undertaking a major overhaul project. When I think about whether this can be accomplished within ten years, I regret to say that I believe the chances are quite low. This could extend to 20 or even 25 years. Then, the expectation that the value will rise quickly, as I mentioned earlier, may also diminish. So, I always say that if you genuinely intend to live in that neighborhood, then it’s fine to buy there. However, for those without that expectation, who are considering it as a short-term investment, it might not be the best idea.

I've noticed that there are quite a few people approaching these days, asking things like, Isn't it okay if I buy this? or Will it be designated as a redevelopment area? I think if it doesn't get designated, they should be a bit cautious. In the past, people used to say that as long as you bought property in redevelopment or reconstruction areas, you would make money, but nowadays, I've heard it's quite hard to earn money. Why is that?

First of all, construction costs have risen significantly, which has reduced the project's feasibility. The feasibility means that, ultimately, the money I invest should be outweighed by the future increase in property value. For example, if I invest 100 million won and the property value rises to 1 billion won, then it makes sense to proceed. Such expectations can help ease conflicts among the cooperative members. But let’s not argue; after all, it’s our money.

We're going to earn a lot, so we need to start anew, but right now, the business feasibility just isn't there. In the past, if you invested 100 million won, now you have to invest 400 or 500 million won. From people's perspective, they start to wonder, What's the point of doing this? and many projects are not even progressing. Recently, I completed the construction of a building, and the construction costs have increased by about 15 to 20% over the past two years. This is happening everywhere. Moreover, there's a bigger issue. People really like large apartment complexes, but building a large complex naturally means a wider construction area and a larger building footprint. This, of course, leads to longer construction periods. Recently, there have been strict laws regarding major violations, as well as safety-related issues concerning buildings.

Due to the frequent occurrences of collapses and similar incidents, construction periods have significantly increased. In reality, when you try to proceed with anything, everything gets delayed; you have to go through reviews and other processes, all of which extend the timeline. The duration of construction directly leads to an increase in financial costs, as there are no projects being built entirely with cash. Therefore, loans from banks are necessary. However, looking at institutions like PFN, interest rates remain high, which makes the feasibility of projects even worse. This additional strain makes it difficult to move forward. As mentioned earlier, value increases are expected when reconstruction occurs, but there is a growing sentiment that reconstruction may not happen. When people start to think that reconstruction is unlikely, their expectations sharply decline. In the past, there was a belief that these expectations would materialize, leading to price increases, but now it seems less likely to happen.

While we are on the same page, let's definitely move towards new constructions, as they are currently enjoying quite a few benefits. Has the building been completed? Yes, it has. Have people started moving in? Yes, they have. So, the studio has been changed. It's a joint investment in a large building. 

Now, since you are probably more familiar with the commercial real estate market, how is the atmosphere regarding officetels and small buildings these days? Well, it's still not easy to say that officetels are doing very well, and we are seeing a trend of rising jeonse prices. However, they are still somewhat outside the scope of the doll doll (high-quality) market, so there are still challenges. On the other hand, there has definitely been a noticeable increase in interest in commercial real estate. It has definitely grown, and even last year or the year before, people were interested in buying, but whether they need to buy right now is a different question.

Recently, there has been a shift in attitude towards buying property. Many people are now seriously considering purchasing a home, and there are those who dream of owning their own house rather than just investing in buildings. There is a significant difference here. When buying a residential property and taking out a mortgage, the interest rates were quite low, around 3% to 4%. However, for commercial properties or buildings, the interest rates were much higher, ranging from 4% to 5% or even 5.5%. This difference is due to the base interest rate plus an additional factor. Overall, there is an expectation that interest rates will decrease. Additionally, demand is increasing, and many have struggled in the past, which has kept property prices somewhat suppressed. All these factors are coming together.

It seems that many people are wondering what to do now, and there appears to be a division in opinions. This doesn't seem to be a general statement about all of Seoul; rather, it seems to focus more on the Gangnam area, particularly towards the sharp, desirable locations. Furthermore, there is a growing interest in larger properties, such as office buildings or corporate headquarters, rather than just retail spaces. Given that the self-employed sector is struggling these days, it seems that people are more interested in leasing properties to companies rather than purchasing buildings for retail purposes. In Seoul, there are indeed two districts among the 25 districts, and while opinions on which neighborhoods are good can vary, looking at the prices can indicate which areas have a better investment potential.

It's somewhat vaguely outlined, like Gangnam, Sanggu, and Mayoungseong. The rankings this week may not change significantly, but in about ten years, which areas could potentially rise above the current rankings? First of all, I think if we compare it to the past, it seems to be fading quite a bit. It feels like we need to group them in terms of neighborhoods nowadays. Is this the era of neighborhoods? Because when we talk about the second choice, where is it? Generally, when Gangnam is mentioned as the first choice, Gangnam and Seocho are usually discussed, and then places like Yongsan come up as the second choice among various areas. I'm not criticizing Yongsan, but if I were to compare it strictly, Yongsan is quite different. Within the district, there are about 200,000 residents, and there are really expensive apartment areas, as well as many villas, and some neighborhoods feel like they are quite rural, mixed in with others.

There is a lot to consider, so it's difficult to make a straightforward comparison. However, from a broader perspective, Yongsan is expected to improve significantly in the future. With the development of parks and the establishment of an international business district, while I can't predict what will happen in the next ten years, I believe that in about twenty years, Yongsan will be recognized much more favorably than it is now. Despite this, I find it hard to say that it will surpass Gangnam. I think it might come down to personal preference. For those who enjoy living in high-density, high-rise areas in urban centers, the preference for Yongsan may increase, particularly in places like Dongbu Ichon-dong and Hannam-dong. However, for others, it might be different.

Still, for those who want to raise children and live in a bustling area, I think Gangnam is a good choice. In fact, that area has seen a significant rise in popularity. The best neighborhood in Yongsan District is Hanam-dong, right? And the eastern part, or Dongbu-dong? The western part is uncertain because we don't know how the international business district will develop, but there are definitely prospects there. The riverside area will likely be developed a lot, and since the Hanam New Town redevelopment is progressing, I believe in ten years it will be much better than now. Gangnam District, oh, Jeongdong is in Gangnam, right? And in Seocho District, we have Podong and Bangbae. The best neighborhood in Songpa District is Jamsil-dong, and you can see how it all compares.

There are many areas where house prices vary by almost two to three times, even within the same district. Therefore, I think it would be reasonable to group a few neighborhoods or community centers together to understand the local situation. Now, as I listen to your comments, I’d like to summarize with a question. If someone is not familiar with real estate investment and is living in the metropolitan area, they might consider buying a property in the best neighborhood within their budget. This could start from areas below Cheongdam or Gangnam and move up as they earn more. If they can earn more, they can upgrade to a better neighborhood, and if they can secure a larger loan, they can move even higher. It’s about making strategic decisions to enter the market and progress to the best possible locations while managing loans effectively.

If you are not studying professionally, the most basic investment method would be the way to go. In fact, that's almost the only method. The only way to make a lot of money in real estate is if specific conditions align, such as location, timing, and taxes, particularly when you own multiple properties during a favorable period. If that happens, you can earn money. However, that's not a viable situation right now. Realistically, it's best to buy a decent property within your means, choose it wisely, and then save money diligently. If there is an increase in value, you can combine that with additional savings to take out loans and move forward in that manner. This is essentially how real estate investment works, especially in our country when it comes to housing and building assets.

It is a common pattern among those who have made it. So now, many people might say, Well, if I take out a loan and buy the best property, won't that work? However, as I mentioned briefly earlier, there is a rate of increase in housing prices. In good neighborhoods, this can be around 6 to 7%. But if we look at slightly cheaper neighborhoods or if we consider going to Gyeonggi Province, the increase might only be around 0 to 1%. However, in some areas, there can be an increase of 3 to 4%. It is not normal for only certain regions to experience rapid price increases like this. Therefore, by purchasing properties that are increasing in value, I can also benefit from that appreciation and then work hard to save money to upgrade my property later. So, I believe that is how you should think about it.

The problem is, as I mentioned earlier, if you take a loan for about 70% and also take a credit loan, let's assume you borrowed 90% of the house value. If I say the interest rate is about 4%, then I'm paying interest on 90% of my house value, which means I'm at a loss every year because I have to pay interest. Even if the house value increases by about 3%, I'm essentially giving all of that to the bank since my loan is at 90%. Therefore, taking on a large loan to buy a house doesn't provide much benefit compared to the average annual appreciation. I think it's more prudent to consider a loan of about 50% of the money I have or to buy a house with a rental agreement. Many viewers might be curious about this, especially regarding the risk of default.

With 14 years of investment experience and 1.37 million subscribers, Mr. Bulran, who operates Bulran TV, has become a property owner and is still a multi-property holder. He is now considering how to gradually streamline his investments. Is he planning to focus on more refined properties, or does he aim to become an even larger multi-property owner? That is also a possibility. 

Regarding real estate investment, I always say the same thing: it's like Monopoly. In Monopoly, you build houses and buildings on a piece of land, then combine them to turn them into hotels, or sell them to move to another location in Seoul. Ultimately, it all comes together into one big picture. The reason I chose multi-property investment is not just because it's fun, but because at that time, it was still the best option.

I thought it was a choice with a high probability of success, and I've been on YouTube for almost 10 years now. Ten years ago, I often advised people to invest in multiple properties because, at that time, it was feasible and advantageous. However, now it is unfavorable and difficult to own multiple properties. Naturally, in a situation where it is hard to purchase something decent in Seoul, becoming a multiple property owner in the provinces is challenging. So, I am also gradually reducing my holdings and consolidating my investments. As I always say, I have a lot of loans. Because I have so many loans, I need to focus on paying them off rather than just adding more investments. I need to manage these loans and use that as a basis to transition into new opportunities.

As I go on, I think we're moving towards combining everything into one rather than just focusing on individual properties. I've known him for about two years, and watching him closely, I feel he's quite remarkable. He is part of a generation of YouTubers that I would call a bit older than me. I've been dealing with real estate content for several years now, but if you ask whether anyone has accurately predicted market trends simultaneously, I would say I don't think anyone has done that in my experience. However, as I talk about this, I realize that when I get things wrong or right, of course, I receive positive comments, but when I'm wrong, I also get negative feedback from people, and my viewer count tends to drop. Since I've become closer to him from the time he started making mistakes, I've noticed this aspect as well.

Before things went wrong, just before they went wrong, I was touching on the interest rate hike right before it happened. Now, I'm doing live sessions every week. But I've noticed that the number of viewers for those live sessions is decreasing. Since I also do YouTube, it pains me to see this. My friend, on the other hand, has seen a huge increase in live viewers recently, even during tough times. I wonder what he's feeling. But these days, his live viewers have increased significantly. There seems to be a misunderstanding. The difficulties with YouTube not performing well are nothing compared to the struggles of high loan interest rates. Everyone, please don't misunderstand. If YouTube doesn't work out, people might say, Oh, that must be tough for him, but that's not it. It's because I have a lot of loans, and what I borrowed at 3.6% feels like 6.8%.

So, really, whether it's Mr. Bulla or other successful individuals, the fact that they consistently do something, whether times are good or bad, is important. When things are good, anyone can do it, right? If sales are continuously increasing, who wouldn't work hard? But when things drop, that's when you can really feel the difference between true professionals and those who are not. 

As a final question, you’ve also added the book Money Trend 2025. Could you point out some changes expected in the South Korean real estate market by 2025? Also, while sharing with our viewers how they can utilize economic books, especially in the fields of economics and management, to help grow and protect their assets, many people say that when they see these kinds of forecasts, it’s important to recognize aspects they were previously unaware of.

There are many people who think that this will definitely happen in the future, so I will go according to this. I have published a book on money trends in collaboration with others, and I believe this book serves to make predictions and provide advice to everyone. I will continue to invest next year and the year after, but I make my judgments based on my own perspective. I hope that you can also develop your own views through this book or similar videos. What I say is, after all, my subjective opinion, so I think it’s important for you to listen to various opinions and then decide how you want to proceed in the future. After considering this, you need to take action accordingly.

However, most people think for a moment and then, when someone else talks, they go back and forth, wondering if it's not the right choice. In doing so, they end up missing opportunities and, conversely, incurring losses. So, I suggest that you take these things into consideration and try to establish a solid set of values for yourself, which seems to be something you need to focus on for next year. Next year, particularly in the real estate sector, I believe there will be a slight upward trend when looking at various conditions. My only concern is that the government is likely aware of this upward trend as well. If they implement any strong regulatory measures, the market may experience another shake-up. That's something I've been contemplating. For those who are curious about your investment insights, please check out Money Trend 2025.

If you look at the book, I believe you will be able to understand not only real estate but also stocks and other trends well. Next time, I hope to create good content with Bula again. Today's guest was Bula. Thank you very much for spending your precious time with us today. This was Kimjak, and I appreciate it. Thank you.

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출연 신청/제휴 문의: smilekdy7@naver.com

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📚 김도윤 작가 도서 출간 (11권)
[1번째 책: 동기부여] 날개가 없다, 그래서 뛰는 거다
[2번째 책: 취업] 인사담당자 100명의 비밀녹취록
[3번째 책: 몰입] 최후의 몰입
[4번째 책: 기획] 기획에서 기획을 덜어내라
[5번째 책: 공부법] 1등은 당신처럼 공부하지 않았다
[6번째 책: 유튜브] 유튜브 젊은 부자들
[7번째 책: 에세이] 엄마는 괜찮아
[8번째 책: 자기계발] 럭키
[9번째 책: 경제경영] 머니 트렌드 2023
[10번째 책: 경제경영] 머니 트렌드 2024
[11번째 책: 에세이] 내가 천 개의 인생에서 배운 것들
