Hello, this is Rando Kim. Today, I want to talk about Tesla's energy sector. Specifically, I know that some of my subscribers are looking for stocks to pass down to their children and grandchildren, so I created this video focusing on that. Now, let me explain why I chose Tesla among all the available stocks. 

If you look at the P/E ratio, you'll see that Tesla currently has a valuation of 92 times earnings. In comparison, most other companies, like Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon, have P/E ratios below 50. Despite this higher valuation of 92 times, there are still many people interested in buying Tesla's stock.

Then why do those people live like that? Ultimately, it’s because there is growth potential. This stock has much more potential for future development compared to others. So, they buy it. From a trading perspective, since the stock has risen significantly, it is considered overvalued and therefore sold. However, today I am not discussing from a trading perspective; I am speaking from a long-term viewpoint of over ten years. 

Because of this, my perspective is that this stock has much more room for growth compared to other stocks. Therefore, even if it is overvalued, the stock I am currently buying is Tesla. So, in the case of Tesla, there are various sectors, and this time I will discuss the energy sector. This sector is currently generating profits and will likely generate even more in the future. In other words, right now...

The profit margins from office spaces are significantly higher than those from cars, and this is a growing sector. There are certainly many more profits in this area compared to the automotive industry. Among the factors contributing to this growth is energy. Therefore, I would like to talk about energy. Specifically, Jensen Huang mentioned recently that AI will teach and, in doing so, will consume a lot of energy. He stated that AI data centers will ultimately require 10 to 20 times more energy than current data centers. To achieve this, it is necessary to consume a significant amount of energy, which means that data centers must be located in areas with a reliable power supply. This highlights the critical need for energy in the current 21st century. As I have shown frequently, there is the electricity consumption of data centers.

In 2030, at least three times more is expected. In 2020, it was 2.5%, but by 2030, it should increase to 7.5%. This pertains to data centers, which consume a significant amount of electricity. Currently, the electricity consumption of data centers is roughly equivalent to one-third of what households in the United States use. This indicates a substantial demand for electricity and energy, making it critically important. Without it, AI cannot function. Therefore, we can say that data centers are ultimately about energy.

On September 26, Elon Musk mentioned that, fundamentally, all energy production comes from solar power. He stated that through this, it is possible to easily supply all of the electricity needed in the United States.

Currently, the global satellite network of Starlink is entirely powered by solar energy and batteries. It is indicated that this is equivalent to obtaining about 3 GW of energy per mile per day. This highlights the significant importance of solar energy obtained from nature. Next, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has stated that 1 GW of storage is necessary. If we take a look at this, it is data from a report titled How to Shape Energy Goals for COP 28. This means that the world needs to deploy 15 GW of energy storage to integrate the renewable energy pipeline by 2030. These figures represent the first consensus among global leaders, indicating that the need is quite urgent. Currently, the renewable energy capacity of around 3 GW is significant on a global scale.

We are waiting for grid expansion, which indicates that a significant amount of grid infrastructure is needed. This is comparable to the capacity of renewable energy that has been commercially operational for the past 15 years. This means that energy is urgently needed. By 2050, the capacity is expected to increase by about 2.5 times. Therefore, further investment in the grid is essential. The grid refers to the power network. Looking at the figures from recent years, investments that have shown around $3,400 need to increase to over $700 billion by the end of the decade, more than doubling. This indicates a substantial need, and this figure is also $100 billion higher than the amount estimated by Bloomberg NEF for grid investments in the coming years. This emphasizes the urgency of the situation. In conclusion, by 2030, we need to construct or modernize approximately 25 million kilometers of electrical grid.

It has been concluded that an additional 55 million kilowatts will be needed by 2035. However, if we rely solely on the current power supply, there will be significant losses and discharges, and the transmission system will incur high costs. To address these issues, it appears that additional investments in battery energy storage system projects are necessary to enhance the flexibility of a renewable energy-based grid. Storing energy in batteries seems to be a much better option. According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, battery energy storage systems (BESS) were the most invested energy technology in 2023. Notably, Elon Musk has also invested in this area. As a result, there is growing interest in battery energy storage systems.

So, by 2030, it is expected that investments in the field will need to increase to around $1,400. These investments are indeed increasing, and currently, there is a lot of demand. You can view this as a battery storage system. Over the past few years, the level of these investments has increased about sevenfold, and the amount allocated should be more than 50% higher than the current investments. Therefore, in various aspects, including demand and supply, it is predicted that there will be significant investments in the distribution sector. Consequently, it is anticipated that more profits will be generated. Similarly, in the case of Sam Altman, it has been pointed out for some time that AI requires an enormous amount of power.

There has been a focus on developing alternative energy sources that have a lower environmental impact to replace existing oil. Altman is also investing hundreds of millions of dollars in various projects. Additionally, Helion Energy, a fusion startup owned by Microsoft, which is a partner of OpenAI, is adopting such technologies. Everyone is currently in a preparatory phase. 

Looking at the global situation, it has been reported that around 750,000 Powerwalls have been installed. This allows for electric vehicles to be charged and for surplus energy to be bought and sold, creating a new concept in energy management. This indicates a significant upward trend in the adoption of such technologies. Therefore, it is expected that Powerwall installations will continue to increase in the future. Now, let's move on to some calculations.

If you look here, this is a Morgan Stanley document. In terms of Tesla Energy, one Mega Pack currently generates operating income, while the value of a vehicle is about $40,000 each. However, the operating margin is about 20% lower. This is because, in the case of the Mega Pack, there is not much cost involved. On the other hand, the cost associated with revenue for vehicles is quite significant, around 7%. Therefore, selling one Mega Pack generates revenue equivalent to selling about 35 vehicles. In reality, if we consider the operating income, it is comparable to selling 100 vehicles. This shows that selling a Mega Pack is much more profitable. Now, regarding the Mega Factory, you know the Giga Factory, which is for manufacturing vehicles, while the Mega Factory is for producing batteries.

This is a mega factory. Here, about 10,000 mega packs are stored. If we look at the sales, since it's 10,000 units, multiplying that by 35 gives us around 350,000 cars. The profit margin would also be similar, corresponding to about a million cars sold. Now, if we consider what Tesla said about the third quarter of 2024, the total delivery volume is around 472,000 units. If we take 472,000 units into account, that is equivalent to selling 100 cars for the price of one mega pack. Therefore, if we remove 100 units from this, it indicates a delivery volume equivalent to about 4,720 mega packs. If we have this many mega packs, we can expect similar revenue. Thus, considering this, the delivery in the future will be much faster than what we are currently experiencing.

Because of this, the energy sector can account for a significant portion of future sales. Now, let's calculate the market capitalization. Before we dive into that, let's take a look at the operating margin. The margin figures presented are 99%, 7%, and 88.5%. Of course, the energy sector currently has some sales, but since those sales are minimal, if we exclude them, the operating margin from the remaining sales is only about 7%. Given this situation, selling cars doesn't yield much profit, but the more Megapacks we sell, the more profit we can generate. So, let's calculate that. First, let's check the current status of the Megafactory's construction. It is approximately 60% completed.

It's been revealed like this: as of September 28, we have 45% completed as of August 20. So, if we consider that we progress about 15% a month, by October, we should reach 75%, and by November, 90%. By the end of the year, we can expect to have it completed. There isn't much time left, and the Shanghai mega factory is expected to be completed soon. The mega factory will be able to produce in both Shanghai and Raedrob. For Raedrob, we are looking at 40 GW, and for Shanghai, it's 80 GW. 

From this, we can infer that as of now, we know the situation for 2023. The financial statements have already been released, showing that we produced 14.7 GB and had sales of 6 billion. Therefore, if we consider that 80 GB is produced, we can estimate the sales to be around 32 million, multiplying that by approximately 5.2.

If we do this, we will get around 32 million. So, when looking at the operating margin, if we add 20% to the 32 million, as we discussed earlier, the operating margin would be 20%. This would lead to an estimated operating margin of 6.4 billion. This is not immediate; we are talking about a few years down the line. Now, with 40 gigawatts, it would be about 3.2 billion. Since we have 6.4 million when there are 80 gigawatts, dividing that by half gives us approximately 3.2 million. Therefore, if we set the valuation at a 45 times multiplier, we arrive at a market capitalization of 144 billion. This means that the market cap we just calculated is based on the 40 gigawatts. If we consider both the previously mentioned 80 gigawatts and the 40 gigawatts, we are looking at a total of 120 gigawatts, which shows a threefold difference between 40 and 120.

If we multiply the market capitalization by three, it suggests that a market cap of about 432 million would result. The current market cap, as of now, is 824 million, which is more than 50% higher than this figure. If we consider the current price range, around 260 to 250 dollars, we would need to add at least 130% to this to reflect the current market situation. This gives us an idea of what the future market cap could be. Given this context, the energy sector has the potential to rise significantly.

Looking at my current position, rather than producing 120 gigawatts, it seems we are on track to produce over 500 gigawatts. This means that electric vehicles will greatly surpass previous expectations. Now, let's consider the targets set by analysts. Adam Jonas has set a target of around 310 dollars, while others are suggesting targets of 120, 220, and approximately 254 dollars. These estimates are based on a one-year outlook.

In October, specifically on September 30th, we have some fresh information. However, we are not looking at it that way; we are discussing it while considering the examples. I can say that. Particularly, we will explore what Adam Jonas is thinking as he is investing $31. In the case of Jonas, he plays a crucial role as a catalyst in unlocking the potential of Tesla's AI, alongside the development of general AI and large language models. It is expected that he will translate Elon Musk's future vision into concrete results. He emphasizes the importance of Tesla's AI and computing infrastructure, which are currently undervalued in the market. This is a good point. By continuing to expand the infrastructure along with the impact of AI, including XAI, Musk...

The integration with other leading ventures is becoming increasingly evident. As a result, the synergies created are showcasing new pathways for innovation and providing a more comprehensive perspective on Tesla's extensive potential beyond its core automotive business. In other words, Tesla is no longer just about cars; it's about everything that connects to it. Additionally, with initiatives like Starlink and various systems coming together, the synergy effect could lead to a significant increase in stock prices. 

At this moment, while we are observing the market, it's difficult to predict how much of a rise might occur. However, the current trajectory indicates that, in the long run, Tesla appears to be in a very favorable position.

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    MBA(skku), 자문사 운용역, 창투사 심사역,주식 및 외환,선물 투자 경력 30 년 차.

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