I'm looking at this supply and demand situation, where relatively few people are interested, but I'm constantly searching for things that are improving. Right now, I think the situation is favorable for the stock market. However, as you mentioned before, there have been two significant downturns, and in the last month or two, my account has roughly halved. Investment sentiment must be very shaky during such times. How do you handle that? I continuously train myself; I focus on mind control and mental strength. I believe that many people who are currently investing are struggling mentally and may even be experiencing symptoms of depression. However, even in such situations, I trust that, in the Korean market, the KOSPI will eventually reflect the performance of the companies. I've mentioned various things about this, but I hope that those listening to me understand this perspective.

I hope you can just grab one thing. Now, let's focus on this chart. On the left, we have Samsung Electronics and Samsung SDI. If we look at the chart over a long period, we can see the trends clearly. The blue graph shows the trend of sales revenue, while the red graph displays the operating profit the company has earned in a bar graph for easier viewing. I've combined these graphs for clarity. 

What does this chart indicate? It shows the current situation where everyone is leaving. It feels like everyone has departed for the U.S., as reflected in the order book of Korean stocks. There is a noticeable lack of supporting funds. Many people criticize this situation. Since the market crash on August 5th, stock markets in the U.S., Europe, and other developed countries have almost fully recovered and are even surpassing previous highs.

Even though I show this, our country's stock market is weak and lacks momentum, and many people are currently criticizing it and leaving. There are discussions about various issues, such as stock investment firms and corporate governance problems. However, our stock market has been continuously improving compared to the past. I actually believe that the stock market is in a better phase right now. The range of choices has widened, leading many investors in our country to shift towards the United States. However, what I firmly believe is that ultimately, stock prices converge with earnings. What I want to emphasize is, why did you choose to invest in Samsung Electronics, which represents our country among over 2,000 stocks? It's because Samsung Electronics is a leading stock, and I often get asked about it the most. The reason is that it has a large market capitalization, and many people hold it.

So, I started investing a bit when the prices were low, specifically in Samsung Electronics. Are there any people around you who have become wealthy? Not many, right? There are certainly many who have become rich through real estate. In fact, most of the people who have achieved wealth in our society seem to have done so primarily through real estate. I looked at some statistical data, and when comparing it to the returns from apartments in our country, Samsung Electronics' returns were outstanding. If you look at the chart, around 2009, Samsung Electronics was at its lowest point, around 1,000 won. Now, even though people are complaining that it hasn't risen, Samsung Electronics is currently at 77,000 won, which is almost a sixfold increase. But why is it so hard to find people who have become wealthy through Samsung Electronics? Why have most people achieved wealth through real estate? I think it's because stock investment doesn't align with human nature.

In statistics, even though the return on investment shows that stocks outperform other assets, why have most people built their wealth through real estate? We see this movement in charts every day, and ultimately, it means we are unable to enjoy the growth of Samsung Electronics. Just looking at the front here, it may seem that there is not much volatility in the long run, but from 90,000 won, it has now dropped to 70,000 won. This is a 30% correction. When there is a 30% drop, the psychological impact is significant. People start to wonder if the company is in trouble or if Samsung Electronics is failing. This mindset prevents us from investing in stocks for the long term. The psychological aspect of human behavior affects the fluctuations in stock prices. What I want to emphasize is that in South Korea, not only with Samsung Electronics but with any company, the graph shows that both revenue and operating profit are increasing simultaneously.

Let's look at the period from 2011 to 2013. During these three years, the stock price increased, but the sales stagnated. During this period, the stock price lacked momentum. Starting in 2016, Samsung Electronics' performance began to explode, and in 2017 and 2018, the stock price followed suit. Is it just Samsung Electronics? Let's take a look at other stocks as well. Samsung SDI also had a significant drop in 2016. For those who remember, there was the note battery explosion incident, which resulted in massive losses, causing the stock price to fall to around 75,000 won at that time. However, that marked the bottom, and from 2018 onwards, Samsung SDI's sales and operating profits have been continuously growing. Consequently, the stock price has skyrocketed. But recently, it has also dropped significantly. Compared to its peak of 800,000 won, it has fallen by more than half. What happened?

Looking at it, sales and operating profit began to decline sharply in 2024. Now, let's take a look at other stocks. SK Hynix is also in a similar situation. If we look at Hynix from 2016, we can see that sales and operating profit started to surge, which also caused the stock price to rise sharply. However, in 2023, there was a significant loss, and the stock price, which had reached 150,000 won, halved to 75,000 won. With the benefits from AI, sales and operating profit skyrocketed, leading to a historical peak price close to 250,000 won. Hyundai Motor Company is in the same boat. As for my investment in Doosan, this company has struggled for a very long time, undergoing restructuring for almost ten years. If you look at the stock price, it nearly hit a low of 25,000 won during the COVID-19 period. This shows that sales and operating profit have continuously improved. Indeed, from 2021, this company has begun to turn around.

It turns out that the stock price indeed bottomed out at 25,000 won, and it has nearly increased tenfold to 260,000 won. The same goes for Celltrion. I haven't seen any industry or company in our country that deviates from this principle. This means that investing becomes really easy. From now on, if I can find companies where sales and operating profits are increasing and I can enter early, and if I can hold onto those stocks during periods when the industry cycle is improving, I can make significant profits in the stock market. I realized this and I believe in it. For example, in the case of Doosan, although the stock price has halved, the sales and operating profits are not an issue. When I calculate, I think that for at least the next ten years, this company's sales and operating profits will trend upwards. So now...

Is this a crisis or an opportunity? I see it as an opportunity. Sales and operations have not declined; in fact, they have increased. However, the stock price has halved, and only people's sentiment has collapsed. I discovered this simple principle, and by applying it, my life changed. Currently, I am investing in Doosan, but of course, I can look into other sectors or stocks as well. Among them, I am considering stocks that have decent sales and operations, and I'm looking for candidates to add after Doosan. At this point, semiconductor-related stocks appear to be promising. Many of these stocks have significantly dropped, and among them, there are concerns that Nvidia's sales growth will slow down, which has led to a decline in many semiconductor-related stocks. There are quite a few stocks that have broken below their early August levels, and among them, those with strong second-quarter results stand out.

There are companies where the current sentiment is at its worst. From what I see, we are even facing credit sell-offs. I believe this could be an opportunity. However, I should mention that the market capitalization of some companies is relatively small. Among the semiconductor materials suppliers, if the second-quarter performance is good and Samsung starts supplying to MBD, it would be a good time to invest in those stocks. I think this is a very favorable moment. 

Additionally, since around May and June, I have been frequently discussing construction stocks. At that time, the supply and demand for construction stocks were completely empty. However, I believe that all the risks associated with construction have now been reflected, and as interest rates stabilize, companies with low debt ratios and relatively low PF risks will benefit. Particularly, as the cycle for nuclear power construction is approaching, there are promising prospects for nuclear energy projects.

There are construction companies that can build data centers well. As a beneficiary of this, I mentioned Samsung C&T. Samsung C&T has actually risen by more than 15% compared to that time. Not only Samsung C&T, but also in the construction sector, companies like Hyundai Industrial Development and GS Construction are gaining attention, even though they were previously overlooked. They are reaching new highs very quickly. The reason I brought up construction when no one else was talking about it is that I pay attention to supply and demand. People’s interest is relatively low, but things are improving. I am always looking for such opportunities. Now, after three months, construction stocks are reaching new highs, and I believe that the semiconductor supply chain is also looking good. Last year, the secondary battery sector was extremely hot, and now...

Are there any sectors or stocks that I should consider? Let me speak in terms of Samsung SDI. As you saw in the previous graph, Samsung SDI's revenue and operating profit surged significantly in 2023. Overall, there was a tremendous boom in secondary batteries centered around EcoPro. However, I believe that this sector will be somewhat neglected for a long time. This will continue until we can confirm the point at which revenue and operating profit are increasing. Right now, we have entered the electric vehicle chasm phase. Mr. Kim, you included secondary batteries in your questions; the reason for that is that people's interest remains very high. Many people are currently stuck in this situation and want to recover their investments, so they are looking for optimistic news regarding secondary batteries.

What I want to say is simple. The recovery of stock prices should be confirmed by the increase in sales and operating profit, and only then should you consider entering the market. In the case of Samsung SDI, if we look at the performance of last year, 2023, the net profit was around 2 trillion won. However, this year's expected net profit is 1.2 trillion won. It seems that currently, we can expect about 10 trillion won. This means that with a price-to-earnings ratio (PER) of 15, it is undervalued compared to the average PER of around 10 in our country. Therefore, compared to regular stocks, it is receiving a 50% growth premium. I believe Samsung SDI has a reasonable valuation. Based on this, I suggest avoiding some cathode material companies where the multiples are excessively high. If I were to make a secondary investment, I would be looking at SK On and LG Chem. However,

It's not yet time. POSCO has POSCO Future Holdings, and considering the current profits from the steel business and the future potential of new businesses, the stock price does seem low. However, it's still not the right time. I believe we need to look at these stocks from the perspective of foreign investors. LG Chem, as the name suggests, is not doing well. The reason is that China is producing a lot of these products. The same goes for POSCO. Unless the core businesses of these companies turn around, no matter how well the new businesses related to secondary batteries improve, it's hard for the stock prices to rise significantly. So, when will the core businesses improve? I still think it's uncertain because no one knows when China's supply onslaught will end. Therefore, what I dislike the most is...

It is a company competing with China. The United States is now trying to suppress China and diminish its manufacturing influence. This is because the Communist Party places great importance on the ideology of jobs. In a communist society, jobs are considered sacred. We can see this in the old Soviet flag, which features images of a sickle and a hammer, symbolizing the importance of labor in a communist society. In such a society, unemployment is not an option; if someone does not want to work, they would have to go to prison. That is the essence of communism. Therefore, even though China has introduced many aspects of a capitalist system, the fundamental ideology still underlies everything. From China's perspective, creating jobs is of utmost importance, especially now when the global economy is struggling and China is also affected.

The domestic economy is not doing very well right now. From the perspective of the Chinese government, what is important is job creation, not corporate profits. Therefore, I find it very uncertain when they will stop pushing their products out into the market. I need to see that these risks are resolved before I consider buying shares in LG Chem or POSCO Holdings. The same goes for batteries. I have a close friend from LG, and I have heard a lot about the excellence of LG batteries from him, so I know them well. However, despite that, I hesitate to invest due to the presence of China. The U.S. is trying to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, but ultimately, the expansion rate of electric vehicles in the U.S. is not increasing as expected. Moreover, we are not only going to operate in the U.S. market; we need to consider the remaining markets where Chinese companies are also active.

If we simply push that out in terms of volume, we are not just looking at the U.S. market. The companies buying these batteries in the U.S., like GM and Ford, naturally want to get them at a lower price. So, they will keep pushing for that. The biggest risk I see is the Trump risk; we need to consider the purchase of secondary batteries after confirming the presidential election results. I think it's still a bit premature. I view LG and POSCO Holdings as the most favorable, but now is not the right timing. After the U.S. presidential election, when the performance turns around, that will be the right moment. If we look for something we can invest in with peace of mind, it has to be energy. Why? Because AI, electric vehicles, and cryptocurrency all require enormous amounts of energy. So, in reality, the U.S. economy is...

There is a lot of concern about the power shortage right now. As I mentioned earlier, the PJN in the power auction has skyrocketed by 800%. This indicates that we are entering an era where electricity is going to be in high demand. The demand for electricity is surging due to AI and electric vehicles, but matching that demand with supply is proving to be very difficult. In the United States, regardless of whether it’s the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, investments in electricity continue to be made. In this context, the stocks related to transformers and power generation in our country have already led the market. What I see is that in nuclear power, I have a positive outlook. As I’ve said before, there are no other players that can create such a monopoly; only our country can do that. Based on this, I intend to invest long-term, as I believe there is no risk involved.

In political risk investment, the thing I dislike the most is uncertainty. I believe that the most reliable investment target without uncertainty is stocks related to electricity and power.

끝까지 살아남을 2차전지 주식, 포스코홀딩스와 '이 주식이다' (전업투자자 박두환)

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