Today, we will have a conversation with CEO Kim Ji-eun. Hello, CEO. 

Hello. The stock market rose above 2,800 but then dropped to the low 2,700s. I noticed that AMD and NVIDIA fell significantly yesterday, but it seems like they are recovering a bit this morning. Samsung Electronics has excellent earnings, but its stock price doesn't seem to be recovering much. How do you see the overall atmosphere these days? 

Regarding AI, it has experienced a significant surge in a very short period, about three months. It seems to be in a phase of stabilization in terms of pricing. However, I don't think we can say that the AI market is over. I believe that in terms of investment related to AI, analyst Song Myung-seop is still one of the few who...

Conservatively speaking, there could be situations where supply exceeds demand. However, based on numbers, assuming that Samsung Electronics receives orders from NVIDIA in 2025 and 2026, Samsung has already received orders for the NVIDIA 3, which is expected to be announced around August. According to a report from Hi Investment & Securities, the amount that Samsung Electronics, Micron, and Hynix need to supply in 2025 and 2026 is expected to align more closely with the actual demand for HBM accelerators. The gap between the projected supply and the demand is gradually narrowing. In fact, based on the data I reviewed, the supply of HBM is expected to exceed demand by about 11% in 2024, and next year, the maximum estimates suggest a range of 15% to 30%. However, by 2026, this gap is expected to decrease sharply to a single-digit figure, or even potentially lead to a situation where supply is greater than demand.

There may be situations where we exceed expectations, so it seems that everything produced by AI is being sold out. This is crucial for manufacturers, as they need to record high margins. If these numbers continue to show positive trends, semiconductor stocks should perform well. However, there are ongoing concerns about a peak-out, which seems to be a constant burden. 

Furthermore, the market consensus indicates that the semiconductor sector holds a significant share of the overall KOSPI index. The consensus for sectors excluding semiconductors is either below single digits or, originally, the overall consensus including semiconductors has risen by about 11% compared to the beginning of the year. This means that other sectors need to support the index, but that is quite challenging. The atmosphere has been positive, for example...

In the food sector, companies like Samyang Foods and those in the defense industry, as well as aerospace companies, are actually performing well. However, in the overall market, if semiconductors account for about 20% to 22%, the contributions from defense, food, and even cosmetics, which have recently performed exceptionally well, are quite small. Ultimately, even if these sectors grow, the only one that can support the substantial size of semiconductors is the secondary battery sector. Therefore, the secondary battery sector needs to recover quickly. Today, I saw that EcoPro released its earnings report. EcoPro's operating profit was expected to be a loss, but it turned out to be a profit of 3.9 billion won. This is mainly due to the reversal of inventory valuation losses from lithium that was previously acquired at a low price. Overall, from the perspective of the EcoPro group, I think we will see more developments in August.

Once the mid-term results are all out, I think I can review the overall performance of EcoPro and the other companies. So, what is the conclusion? Currently, there is no clear substitute that can replace semiconductors. The key to improving AI performance ultimately lies in the fact that the current stock prices reflect people's expectations. For the numbers to exceed those expectations significantly, we need to see continuous results in 2025 and 2026, but that doesn't seem easy. As I mentioned earlier, in terms of supply and demand, if there is a sharp decline in tech stocks, domestic semiconductor companies will be hit much harder. Samsung Electronics is a bit different; the proportion of semiconductors in its sales and profits is only 30%. For Samsung Electronics, mobile phones are much larger, accounting for over 40% of its sales and profits.

If Samsung Electronics' mobile phones continue to sell well, even a slight recovery in the semiconductor sector could be significant. Samsung Electronics and Hynix are fundamentally different. Hynix has already reflected tremendous expectations regarding HBM, which is why its stock price has been consistently reaching new highs, and it has recently undergone a correction of about 15 to 20%. In contrast, Samsung Electronics currently has no expectations regarding HBM. However, as I mentioned previously, due to HBM, there is an oversupply situation in the general memory semiconductor sector. Since the oversupply in the general memory semiconductor sector is larger, I believe that Samsung Electronics will benefit much more from it. If you were to compare Samsung Electronics and Hynix from an investment perspective, Hynix will continue to feel pressure regarding its stock price moving forward.

I see that the stock price is continuously dropping. It seems that foreign investors are heavily selling Hynix, and the price has fallen significantly. If it drops to a point where it seems cheap enough to buy, that could be a very risky situation. To assess this, you can look at whether the price has deviated by about 30% from its peak. Whether it can hold above that 30% mark will make a difference. If Hynix drops a bit more and breaks that 30% threshold, it could be seen as completely deviating from the trend. Therefore, I believe that while Hynix is under price pressure, Samsung Electronics, which can benefit the most from general memory semiconductors, is in a much less burdensome position. Even if the semiconductor sector declines, as I mentioned earlier, Samsung Electronics has its mobile phones, displays, and home appliances, forming a global triangle.

I believe that Samsung Electronics is holding up quite strongly, and I expect its performance to continue to be good. As I mentioned last time with the numbers, if we look at Hynix, aside from sales, in terms of profit, I anticipate that Samsung Electronics' annual operating profit will increase by about 500%. Of course, this is partly due to the base effect from last year's poor performance, but I expect a 500% increase. Therefore, in terms of the improvement in profits, Samsung Electronics is expected to outperform Hynix. So, I think we need to view Samsung Electronics and Hynix a bit differently. 

Secondly, whether I study the chemical industry, the steel industry, or other non-ferrous metals, a recent trend is that the prices of raw materials are falling much more than the selling prices of products. This means that, for example, if we consider the selling price...

I reduced the price by 5%, but since the cost of raw materials has dropped by 15%, there is still a profit even if the selling price does not increase. There is a 10% profit margin. This is true for the steel industry and currently for the chemical industry as well. It’s not to say that all steel companies and all chemical companies are experiencing this, but generally, the decline in raw material prices is quite significant. Therefore, from the perspective of manufacturing companies, even a reduction in costs by half can result in substantial profit margins. A notable example of this is seen in some steel companies and in the chemical sector, particularly in the production of high-value-added chemical products. For instance, high-value-added chemical products include materials used in IT and consumer electronics, such as PVC and synthetic rubber, as well as potassium nitrate produced by Unilra.

Potassium carbonate and similar materials have seen a significant drop in raw material prices, which has led to an improvement in margins. However, has this trend of improving spreads continued throughout the past year? When discussing semiconductors, we often hear that AI semiconductors have been performing well since the end of last year. In reality, chemical companies and steel companies have seen their stock prices plummet, and the talk of improved spread margins has only emerged in the last two to three months. Now, we are indeed in a trend where spread margins are improving. Looking at the situation, foreign investors are currently adjusting their positions in semiconductors while also focusing on certain chemical companies and shipbuilding companies. The shipbuilding industry is a prime example, as they use thick plates for ship construction. However, the prices of these thick plates are continuously being negotiated with Posco and Hyundai Steel.

We are experiencing a decline. So, just focusing on raw materials is not entirely correct; that's all that remains. Therefore, pay close attention to raw material prices. However, it seems that the trend of falling raw material prices will continue for a while. So, let's focus on industries where we can calculate the spread margin between selling prices and raw material prices. Typical examples include chemicals, shipbuilding, and steel, as well as IT hardware and machinery. These sectors can all have spread margins. In these areas, both foreign investors and institutions are quickly moving through a so-called rotation, particularly with some semiconductor profits being realized. Additionally, when looking at the PBR, the KOSPI has been a very good investment opportunity when it is below a PBR of 0.9. However, we need to check today's PBR; this is done weekly.

Make sure to check it at least once. How to check PBR? If you go to the KRX information data system, it gets updated daily. Here, you can find the stock price index's PER, PBR, and dividend yield. If you look at the KOSPI, the PER has dropped to 0.980, which is below 1. This means that below 1, we are actually undervalued in terms of valuation, and there is not much burden. When it goes above 1, you can compare it to when the KOSPI was at 3,000, at that time it was over 1.4. So, you can compare it to that time, and the performance is continuously improving. Therefore, classify the sectors that are exceeding earnings consensus; there are many industries where earnings are exceeding expectations. Among these, the defense industry stands out as being particularly strong. For example, in the food sector, Samyang Foods has performed well.

Defense industry stocks, including Hyundai Rotem and Korea Aerospace, reported their earnings yesterday, and the results were quite good. Korea Aerospace, which had been the worst performer among defense stocks, surprised everyone with its results. Now, all five major sectors in defense—Hyundai Rotem, Aerospace, Korea Aerospace, and others—are showing strong performance. As the second quarter results come out, it’s important to analyze these sectors where many high-performing stocks overlap. However, for the time being, I would advise caution regarding AI-related companies, as their trend has recently declined. Instead, it might be better to focus on other export-driven sectors, as I mentioned earlier, and utilize the spread range.

Let's look for opportunities in the export data, as I mentioned. Is Samsung Electronics an exception? I believe we need to approach Samsung Electronics a bit differently. There’s nothing wrong with that, right? There’s nothing wrong. Currently, there are reports that Samsung Electronics is continuously improving in the memory semiconductor sector. Since HBM has taken up all the capacity, memory companies actually reduced production last year and the year before. Now that they are about to increase production again, they are unable to use general memory due to HBM. Because HBM has taken away all the capacity, the remaining capacity is being used, which means that memory companies are experiencing a natural reduction in supply without having to officially cut production. So, what does this reduction mean? Ultimately, it means that prices will continue to rise as supply keeps decreasing.

The fact is that Samsung Electronics is currently facing various issues, including losses in the foundry sector and the aspect of losing its leadership to Hynix. As I mentioned last time, the SSD storage devices and general memory semiconductors are performing very well, and prices are continuously rising. Therefore, I believe that the benefits from this will go to Samsung Electronics, not Hynix. From the perspective of foreign investors, they have invested 8.8 trillion won in Samsung Electronics. However, since they have invested this amount, they need to see some profits; otherwise, they might shift their investments elsewhere. Despite the 8.8 trillion won investment, the current stock price has not changed significantly. This means that foreign investors have made a substantial investment in Samsung Electronics, but they need to make a profit and sell, which is not the case at the moment.

Foreigners have been buying a lot, right? Yes, they have been buying a lot. But it seems that Hynix is currently working hard to sell. Therefore, I believe that Samsung Electronics and Hynix need to approach things from a different perspective. Now, there are some good sectors, as you mentioned, like chemicals and steel, among others. If we look ahead to the second half of the year, do you think the index will rise? I don't think the index will rise significantly. For the index to rise, people's expectations need to increase in line with company profits. However, first of all, the secondary battery sector has created an investment sentiment that is incredibly strong compared to semiconductors. But since the stock prices of secondary batteries have collapsed, many people are disappointed and have actually left the stock market. Additionally, another very important factor is the investment environment.

This issue significantly impacts individual investors, and not just them, but all people involved in financial investments. Our country's system is not advanced; in fact, the financial system resembles that of a developing country. By trying to introduce regulations like the gold tax, it has placed a considerable burden on individual investors. This burden affects stock investors, bond investors, and those investing in ETFs as well. The government should systematically address this by promoting long-term investments and providing tax benefits. However, there continues to be uncertainty regarding these matters, and although the announcement has not yet been made, the president has called for its abolition.

Despite the Democratic Party pushing hard, it doesn't make sense. Of course, recently the Democratic Party suggested that the 50 million won was too much and proposed adjusting it to 100 million won, and to make some adjustments to the rest. Ultimately, we need to either completely reinforce the system for capital gains tax or abolish it altogether. However, this issue related to capital gains tax is still dragging on. A quick decision is necessary, as individual investors have already experienced significant disappointment, with several trillion won worth of assets being sold off. Additionally, the government keeps talking about PBR (Price-to-Book Ratio) value-up, but there aren't many actual changes based on feedback from companies regarding this PBR value-up. While expectations for PBR value have been raised, tax measures and other aspects need to be improved.

Companies also need to actively buy back their shares and return value to shareholders. There are significant external factors affecting stock prices, and secondly, there seems to be a stark difference in performance expectations. For instance, while sectors like defense and power equipment are performing exceptionally well, other industries, particularly in domestic markets, have been severely impacted. As you know, a representative example is E-Mart and department stores. I also shop at The Hyundai in Yeouido more frequently lately because I'm conducting demand surveys and analyzing consumer behavior for investment ideas. When I look at the average purchase amount of consumers at The Hyundai in Yeouido, do you know how much it is? I was genuinely shocked; it's 23,000 won. Is that really all? Yes, that's it. So, The Hyundai in Yeouido is not generating much profit.

There are no numbers, do you know why? Here, even more modern places are only focused on trends. The MG generation goes to see hot brands, but they buy everything online. And, well, it seems that only the food stores are doing well. Hot brands like Camel Coffee and famous restaurants are designed and branded to appeal to the MG generation, and that's where they succeed. The average price point is just too low. It's shocking. Even in the most talked-about places, the average consumer spending is 23,000 won. However, it doesn't seem like that will dramatically improve. It seems that domestic consumption is really not good right now. And recently, it's been chaotic. With WEMAKEPRICE and other payment systems starting to have issues, it continues to weigh down the domestic economy.

I believe that while domestic demand is being supported, the main consumer force, which is the retired population, is the 2030 generation. Another shocking fact is that I don't know what the 2030s are relying on to endure, but many of them have completely given up on working and are just staying at home. As far as I know, this population has exceeded 20% for the first time. This means there is no driving force to stimulate consumption. 

For the retired generation, real estate accounts for over 70%, actually 80%. Yes, that's correct, 80%. Real estate prices are continuously falling; only certain areas in Seoul are seeing increases, not the entire real estate market. Therefore, I expect that people who are disappointed with real estate might turn to stock investments.

In the past, when the real estate market was good, people made profits by investing in real estate and then bought stocks. However, now that the real estate market is collapsing, money is, in a way, extremely illiquid, and the only last hope is that if the U.S. lowers interest rates in September, we won't be able to freeze our rates either. The interest rate gap between the U.S. and South Korea is currently maintained at a high level. So, the expectation for a rate cut is quite significant. In fact, the probability of the U.S. lowering rates in September has risen to 90%. If they do not raise rates by 25 basis points but instead make a big step and cut by 50 basis points, the market will likely react very positively. However, as I mentioned earlier, the main consumer group, the middle class, is in a precarious situation.

The domestic consumption-related stocks seem to be struggling more and more. I really like FNF, and I only go to FNF stores. FNF has actually made over ten times the profit. However, even FNF, which is a representative consumer stock, is facing challenges. MLB, which used to do well selling just hats, has now expanded significantly, opening over 3,000 stores in China with their Discovery padding line. But ultimately, consumer goods need a solid foundation in the domestic market. The domestic market serves as a base, and then we can layer on the Chinese and Indian markets. However, with the support of the domestic market shaking, look at FNF; a stock that used to be worth 150,000 won or 190,000 won is now around 50,000 won. It has lost a third of its value. Just look at E-Mart; it simply shows how bad the domestic economy is when you see the numbers for E-Mart.

Let's take a look at E-Mart. The reason I keep mentioning this is that the answer lies in export stocks. Currently, sales are almost stagnant at around 30 trillion won. Last year, profits were quite low, with estimates of 180 billion, 290 billion, and 330 billion won. However, if we compare this to the average during the COVID period, it was around 250 billion won, which means we're looking at a decrease of about 15% to 20%. Last year, there was a significant loss, so there is a base effect to consider. Ultimately, I believe that the recovery of the domestic economy will continue to be challenging. Therefore, the answer lies in export stocks, but the proportion of export stocks in total sales is only about 20% or 30%. So, it's hard to call them export stocks. In contrast, Samyang Foods has an export ratio of 85%, and its stock price reflects that entirely. Ultimately, it seems that investing has become simpler among export stocks.

Since data is released every month, industries that ensure continuity are prominent. The power machinery sector is a prime example, as is the defense industry. The reason the same discussions keep recurring is that only certain companies continue to thrive. Recently, while trading, I've noticed that the cycles are really short. For instance, bank stocks have been performing exceptionally well lately; Shinhan Financial Group has done well, and KB Financial has also been strong. Insurance stocks are doing well too. However, just because bank and insurance stocks are performing well, if someone decides to jump in late, they might end up getting stuck. Shipbuilding stocks are good, but I honestly don't know if this trend will continue. In conclusion, export stocks are the ones where data keeps coming in without much pressure. Currently, while the defense industry is strong, I also see potential in the beauty and medical sectors.

The device continues to show good export data, and the beauty and medical devices sector is diversifying its export regions significantly. In the past, the focus was primarily on China and Brazil, but now it has just begun to penetrate Southeast Asia and Europe, and is also making inroads into North America. The beauty and medical devices sector has no strong preferences; both institutions and foreigners favor this channel. If you check the cumulative net buying status of foreign institutions in the Hero's Document HTS, you will find that there are many overlapping industries. These are likely the sectors I mentioned, or there may be stocks that were previously nonexistent. For example, companies like Kumho and Unid are in the chemical sector. Keep an eye on those companies. While they may not be in semiconductors or secondary batteries, there is definitely a niche market. I believe that a strategy targeting blue oceans will be more effective.

결국 삼성전자가 이긴다. 삼성이 결국 엔비디아 HBM 뚫는다. 이때부터 대역전극 시작된다. SK하이닉스보다 삼성전자 사세요 (김지훈 대표 / 1부)

🌕 웅달과 함께 하는 "고래 돈공부" 모임
📌 네이버 카페 - https://rb.gy/nxu5i
📌 "고래 돈공부" 신청하기 - https://rb.gy/y0y0x

🌕 JUST READ and DO IT.
"웅달 책방"과 함께 읽고, 쓰고, 말하고,
나누는 삶을 실천해 보아요.

여러분들의, 무엇보다 건강, 경제적 자유,
그리고 자아실현을 응원합니다.

🌕 웅달
현) "웅달 책방" 운영 중
전) "체인지그라운드" 창업
카이스트 경영대학원 SE-MBA 졸업
연세대학교 경제학과 졸업

🌕 비즈니스 문의 :)
cclee9@naver.com


결국 삼성전자가 이긴다. 삼성이 결국 엔비디아 HBM 뚫는다. 이때부터 대역전극 시작된다. SK하이닉스보다 삼성전자 사세요 (김지훈 대표 / 1부)

Scripts