Just by listening, you can naturally understand industries and companies. Join the investment seminar where you can hear directly from the best analysts and experts. The Wise Club is linked in the pinned comment. The younger generation, those in their 20s and 30s, is starting to drift away from public sentiment. However, something I've been really curious about since I was young is the internal situation in North Korea. It's a structure where actions that go beyond mere public sentiment, like a coup d'état, are completely impossible. Up until now, that's been the case. It's not that there have been no attempts at coups; there have been a few, albeit very few. The most notable attempt was by the military, and when we think of it, we recall the Blue House Military Academy. Of course, the methods of the coup and the people who were involved were from a much more hardline faction than what we see in South Korea.

It was an incident that arose from the Blue General Military Academy in Russia. The name Blue General refers to a Russian general. Those who attend the military academy are high-ranking officers, specifically those above the rank of lieutenant colonel. They learn about Russian strategies, tactics, and military doctrines. In the early 1990s, graduates from the Blue General Military Academy were considered the core of the North Korean military. However, when the Soviet Union collapsed and Russia emerged, those who were studying in Russia returned to North Korea. After returning, they attempted to overthrow the Kim Jong-un and Kim Jong-il regime in order to seize power, planning a military coup, which ultimately led to their exposure. Yes, it is indeed a possible scenario, but for it to materialize...

This is not an easy situation, and one of the reasons this is impossible is that North Korea has a very tight surveillance system, making organization difficult. It is prohibited to gather in groups of three or more. There was even an incident where five students were caught and imprisoned just for gathering on a basketball court. In other words, North Korea prevents any unauthorized meetings to ensure that no organizations can be formed. Among any three people, one is likely to be a spy. This means that the surveillance system is so extensive that it is often said that if three people are gathered, one of them is probably a spy. As a result, it becomes very difficult for individuals to express their true feelings or inner thoughts. This process ultimately leads to...

It's about making reconciliation. In any organization, reports and surveillance start from the very early stages of movements opposing the opposition. This makes it structurally impossible. The third point is that even if a significant rebellion occurs in North Korea, the structure is such that external intervention is nearly impossible. Would China intervene? Would our country push forward? That's not possible. Therefore, the physical limitations of the anti-Kim regime forces within North Korea are clear. Ultimately, unless the military rises up, the physical power they can wield is limited to a few protests, which would be suppressed. Knowing these constraints, the people in North Korea understand that even if they have grievances, it ultimately won’t succeed, so they don’t take action. They don’t want to rise up meaninglessly and face consequences.

Life can only be achieved, but you mentioned that the 2030 generation can now say no. However, that means they can't do it openly, right? Nowadays, they do it openly. Where? Around November last year, about 2,000 North Korean workers dispatched to the Northeast Samsung region staged a riot. Yes, that's right. They rioted demanding their wages. In the entire history of North Korea, there has never been a case where workers staged a riot. The reason for this riot was not that the Kim regime incited it, but because they did not receive the wages they were entitled to. They rioted to demand the return of their rightful wages. The most important implication of this riot for us is that the young generation living under the North Korean regime is now rejecting the things imposed by the regime, which in the past...

Well, I understand that you all have worked hard, but the money was used as loyalty funds and for other people. When this was communicated in a coercive manner, it created an atmosphere where everyone just listened and dispersed. So, they took the college entrance exam. Regardless of what the North Korean regime says, they accepted it all and believed it as it was. However, the North Korean regime, at that time, tried to promote the idea that if they returned to North Korea, they would be rewarded or that the money would be used for various other purposes. But that completely failed. It was nonsense to say that it was for the country. They began to assert their individual rights, which is quite significant in a way. It shows that they collectively did something to protect their rights. Now, their stated goal is to fight for their salaries.

Although it was for that purpose, if their personality changes, they may demand their rights, and even the regime itself, later on. Another thing is that in 2022, there was a report about a physical education teacher in North Korea who established a political party based on the ideology of liberal democracy. He was discovered and sent to a political prison camp. The very attempt to do this is significant; it's absurd. The fact that such an attempt was made indicates that these individuals understood what a liberal democratic system is. That is a huge movement. However, regarding the two thousand people who protested in Dongbuk Samsung over their salaries, they must have gone into North Korea. What happened to them afterward? There have been no follow-up reports, but it is speculated...

In the academy, all the leaders have been imprisoned in political prison camps. They must have been aware of the consequences, but it seems they understood that this was ultimately their last struggle. Now, with the emergence of the younger generation, such as the MG generation, is North Korean society gradually changing? We can assess this by looking at the various oppressive laws that Kim Jong-un has introduced and identifying their main targets. This allows us to understand who is shaking the foundations of the North Korean regime. The laws being created by Kim Jong-un are primarily aimed at maintaining control. A prominent example is the law against reactionary thought and culture. Additionally, it targets the youth of Pyongyang, aiming to influence this younger generation. If...

The youth generation is currently facing the North Korean regime's strict control. In June 2022, Kim Jong-un made a statement during a full session of the Workers' Party Central Committee, saying that the ideological confusion and defection among the youth are very serious. He warned that if these issues are not properly managed, they could become the greatest threat to the North Korean regime. Recently, he also stated that North Korea would not collapse due to external attacks, whether they are military strikes or nuclear attacks. He expressed confidence that North Korea is militarily prepared to withstand all external assaults. However, he emphasized an important point afterward: he mentioned that the only very faint possibility of North Korea collapsing would be internal discord. He explicitly stated that it would be from within that North Korea could fall.

Now, the reality is that Kim Jong-un is essentially afraid of the youth generation's defection. This is precisely why the purpose of creating those three evil laws is there. Right now, we can also observe that the soldiers working with DMG, who are laying mines, are mostly from the market generation. This means that Kim Jong-un does not even trust his own military. He is laying mines to keep them from defecting. Most of these individuals are in their early twenties and belong to the current North Korean market generation. They are people who passionately watched South Korean dramas during middle and high school, which is why Kim Jong-un cannot trust them. Another point we discussed earlier is the students who were punished for taking photographs.

They are talking, but ultimately, it doesn’t make sense. This means that Kim Jong-un is unable to make rational judgments. If punishments for these individuals are carried out as examples, it is to show other young students that even those who have achieved something can face consequences if they disobey the orders of the North Korean regime. Ultimately, these individuals are all very young, in their teens or twenties. From Kim Jong-un's perspective, the current teenagers, twenties, and thirties in North Korea are perceived as a significant threat, which is why the level of punishment is absurdly high. It doesn’t make sense. In fact, this indicates a renewed necessity to control the so-called MG generation in North Korea, but paradoxically, it also means that such control is not effective. They were told not to do something, yet they took selfies.

Did you not take any pictures? Then Kim Jong-un must be feeling something again. He said not to do that, but they went and took pictures anyway, which is making him angry. Also, one of the points you mentioned about the Kim Jong-un regime nearing its end is the diplomatic blunders. Previously, they were very close to China, but recently they seem to have become somewhat estranged from China and are getting closer to Russia. They are supporting with weapons and even receiving luxury cars. How is this perception being held within North Korea? In fact, one of the newly revealed issues, which I am mentioning for the first time on air, is that the biggest internal problem regarding shifting relations from China to Russia is with the existing elites in North Korea.

The elites are all worried about losing their right to survive. This is because, aside from Kim Jong-un, most people engaged in the economy and trade in North Korea have their foundations in China. Whether it's in Beijing, Shanghai, or Dalian, the North Korean economy operates through various trade transactions and connections with Chinese companies. The imports and exports of North Korea heavily depend on China, don't they? The people involved in these activities have now lost their jobs. Those who worked in this sector were the ones providing money to the top elites in North Korea. We often refer to them as foreign currency earners in North Korean schools. About 80% of these foreign currency earners are based in China. However, most of them are now...

There is a risk of becoming unemployed, and ultimately, there is a problem within the elite group that has been supporting the current regime in North Korea. If these elites begin to express dissatisfaction with Kim Jong-un's sudden shift towards Russia and start saying no, there is a danger that the elite forces supporting his governance system could collapse. 

Secondly, if they were to sever ties with China and turn to Russia, the question arises: can Russia provide the same benefits to North Korea that it previously offered China? Economically, this is also a concern. China is the world's second-largest economy, and with that level of strength and influence, even if North Korea engages in strange activities or provocation, China has historically protected North Korea's trade interests and economic benefits. Sometimes, even if it means a loss for China, it has intervened to ensure that the North Korean regime does not collapse, such as allowing the import of North Korean coal.

Seafood is all imported, and the quality is quite poor. It's just something to survive on. In that relationship, there was a hole for the elites to live off. However, now they are saying they will go to Russia. Can Russia provide what China used to? Russia does not have the capability to do that. Russia is busy trying to take care of itself. The Russian economy has a very distorted structure, and it is not a country that has the luxury to look after other nations. It's a mess. Currently, Russia is in a crisis due to the war in Ukraine, which has them stuck in a quagmire. During this time, they needed North Korea and have drawn North Korea in, but Russia is the one that...

Russia is now feeling a bit burdened because it is getting closer to North Korea, which has gone all in. Currently, we are in a state of diplomatic all-in as well. This is because China has not gone this far, but now, at the China-North Korea border, China has started to establish radio centers. These radio centers are beginning to set up transmission towers capable of sending radio signals. This means that in order to send signals, we need base stations, and they are building these base stations, which did not exist before. The problem with establishing these base stations is that North Korean broadcasts, specifically North Korean radio, are currently increasing in DMG. If we were to purchase frequencies from China and sell those frequencies to civilians for North Korean broadcasts...

If it is transmitted to North Korea, North Korea will be surrounded. The broadcasts to North Korea will completely breach the North Korea-China border. Information from North Korean radio broadcasts is very limited in its reach. However, broadcasts sent from China can mix shortwave and longwave, which means they can effectively reach as far as Pyongyang. 

So, if a radio center is established on the Shandong Peninsula and broadcasts towards North Korea, it can cover all of Pyongyang. The people in Pyongyang can simply adjust their radios to listen to South Korean broadcasts. This is currently being done by China, which is why North Korea is begging them to stop. However, China pretends not to notice and continues to operate this setup. Additionally, until now, China has been demanding...

The implementation of the North Korean sanctions resolution has been passive. However, North Korea is now more proactive than anyone else. In plain terms, it seems like China is saying, Why don't you take a hit, North Korea? From China's perspective, they are essentially trying to discipline North Korea by saying, If you don't comply, you will suffer losses. A recent symbolic incident illustrates this: China sent back a North Korean player who was playing in the Chinese women's professional basketball league. Why did they send her back? It was due to a violation of regulations. In the past, there was a player named Hwang Kwang-seong, often referred to as North Korea's version of Son Heung-min. He had signed with Juventus but was sent back to North Korea due to the UN sanctions resolution established in 2017. This was because the money these players earned mostly went to the North Korean authorities, contributing to foreign currency income.

In terms of blocking, North Korea has prohibited its overseas athletes from participating in any professional leagues. However, China ignored this. There were North Korean basketball players who could play in China, but this time, they sent one of those players back, telling him to go back to North Korea. From North Korea's perspective, this is not a big deal; they claim it was just about renewing an expired passport. However, it clearly shows that China's sentiment has worsened significantly. After sending the player back, China stated that it is faithfully implementing the UN sanctions against North Korea. This is the first time they have made such a statement; until now, they hadn't mentioned that they were implementing the sanctions. Recently, many North Korean workers had entered China, and there was an instance where all those workers were sent back to North Korea. Now, they are continuing to send them back.

At that time, the spokesperson for the North Korean Foreign Ministry mentioned that their diplomatic relations were not deteriorating; it was just a procedural matter. This was the general tone of the comments made by the spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry. They expressed hope that the South Korean media would provide fair reporting based on professionalism, criticizing them for excessive coverage. The media interpreted this as China's last pride and patience. While this was a commentary on the media, it also served as a warning to North Korea, indicating that this was the end; what we can tolerate is only up to this point. However, North Korea did not stop there and continued to deliberately push China aside while engaging with Russia and South Korea. To understand this better, we need to look back and ask why North Korea felt displeased with China in the first place.

We need to think about whether North Korea is trying to grasp Russia's hand alone without China. From North Korea's perspective, when they are struggling, they want help, but China keeps trying to control them, which is frustrating. So, they are looking for other options, and that is exactly the reason. Since 2019, the relationship between North Korea and China has started to fluctuate. In 2018, when Xi Jinping met with Kim Jong-un, Kim treated Xi almost like an emperor. Recently, there was a lot of commotion when President Putin visited North Korea, being treated with imperial-level respect, but at that time, North Korea extended the same level of courtesy to Xi Jinping. During that meeting, there were several demands made, such as increasing the number of North Korean workers and requesting to be exempted from various UN sanctions.

There were various demands made regarding certain conveniences, but in fact, those were not implemented due to the outbreak of COVID-19. After the pandemic began, North Korea essentially viewed China as the origin of the virus and completely closed the border with China. From China's perspective, this led to a sense of betrayal starting from that point. While we now refer to it as the Wuhan coronavirus, China does not call it that at all. They do not even acknowledge that it originated in Wuhan and consistently promote the narrative that they handled the situation well. However, as North Korea continues to scratch the surface of China's self-image, China has sent some warning signals. What that means is that once the COVID situation is over, the Chinese students and North Korean laborers, who could not return during the pandemic, amount to about 100,000 to 140,000 people.

It is estimated that other temporary workers will also be sent back to North Korea once their visas expire. They mentioned that if too many people come back all at once, it would be burdensome for both North Korea and us, so they requested a gradual and sequential return. Additionally, they asked for visa renewals for those who return, as well as new visa issuances. However, China showed a somewhat lukewarm response. When asked if China firmly said no at that time, the answer was not a clear yes or no. It was more like a wait and see approach, prolonging the situation. Ultimately, due to the deteriorating internal economic conditions in North Korea, there were a significant number of starvation cases in 2022 and 2023. This period coincided with North Korea's decreasing control over its residents and their economy.

To completely control the living areas, they closed the markets and enforced regulations while prohibiting the purchase of food in these markets. During this period, North Korea held the power over life and death. However, as I mentioned earlier, they should have done better, but North Korea did not. They lacked the experience, and as a result, the policy failed. The price of rice skyrocketed several times, and foreign currency also increased severalfold. Consequently, North Korea is currently experiencing tremendous inflation, reaching unprecedented levels. With the current inflation, one cannot even buy one kilogram of rice with a monthly salary. So, what action did Kim Jong-un take at that time? When the price of rice tripled or quadrupled, he raised the monthly salaries of North Korean workers by the same amount. But what does that mean? It has no significance; it only exacerbates the inflation.

This is a policy used by fools, and it was implemented by Kim Jong-un. It's like asking, Why are you only eating bread when you're hungry? Why not eat rice as well? This kind of judgment was made by Kim Jong-un. As a result, various complaints started to arise. For instance, people said they couldn't even buy one kilogram of rice with their salaries. Kim Jong-un responded by saying, Then let's just raise the salaries, and so salaries were increased. However, for that to work, supply should also increase, but the supply remained the same. Kim Jong-un should really pay attention to Wall Street to understand the economy. I really wish he would. The supply is unchanged, and the situation hasn't improved at all, but money has been released into the economy. Naturally, prices are going to skyrocket. Meanwhile, the exchange rate is also soaring uncontrollably, leading to the execution of the official responsible for managing the exchange rate.

I exchanged currency, but the exchange rate is still not stabilizing. The economy is almost on the brink of collapse, and at this moment, Russia has extended a helping hand. Consequently, North Korea has completely shifted its direction toward Russia, claiming that nothing can be done with China. The relationship between China and North Korea is not deteriorating based on any rational reasoning; rather, it has been damaged emotionally. Xi Jinping and Kim Jong-un have fallen out. In diplomatic relations, emotional conflicts can often overshadow all rational conditions. Right now, China and North Korea are in such a state, responding emotionally. I believe this could accelerate North Korea's downfall. Why is this dangerous? Well, China...

Such thoughts can arise: to overthrow the Kim Jong-un regime and establish a system that listens to us. This means that China might also dream of regime change, which is frightening. From Kim Jong-un's perspective, this means that China is slowly starting to become a threat. The most recent measure taken was to ban Chinese dramas and films, labeling them as impurities. This is an emotional reaction from North Korea. Originally, Chinese dramas and films were acceptable; they were broadcast on TV. Every week, dramas were scheduled, either dubbed or subtitled. These Chinese films could be legally bought and sold as DVDs. However, now even Chinese culture has become illegal. This undermines the Chinese regime. From North Korea's point of view, and China's perspective, China is now boasting about this.

North Korea is currently challenging various aspects of socialism, which is a distinctive feature of Xi Jinping's socialism. This is unprecedented in history; it is truly a historical anomaly. North Korea claims that China's Northeast Project is a distortion of history while provoking China. When we ask about the Korean Peninsula, it feels like they have lost their minds. If there are things they shouldn't do, they are indeed doing them. There are certain actions that should absolutely not be taken, and they are doing just that. Kim Jong-un is engaging in actions that should never be done, and the sequence of events is reversed in terms of relations with China. That's why I assess Kim Jong-un as an amateur. This kind of behavior did not occur during Kim Jong-il's time. However, it seems that now they are not considering precise diplomatic strategies but are acting emotionally. They are asking for help when they are in a difficult situation, trying to gauge the situation.

They told us to wait, but from China's perspective, it was like, Hey, are you really going to wait for us to help? We're also struggling. It just created a wider gap between each other.

북한 역사상 최초의 '폭동' 발생...러시아와 손잡은 게 치명적인 이유 / 김금혁 위원 (3부)

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북한 역사상 최초의 '폭동' 발생...러시아와 손잡은 게 치명적인 이유 / 김금혁 위원 (3부)

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