Hey everyone, welcome to Mr. Block's Crypto Show. Today, we're going to talk about the market and whether the bull market has left us, followed by a bear market. We will look at some on-chain data, including the Fair and Greed Index, to see the tokens that retail investors like in the market. Then, we will analyze the performance of the top altcoins from the last bull market and discuss why this market surge is due to the Bitcoin narrative, as the Bitcoin ETF approval since last October has led to Bitcoin's continuous rise. So, we are currently in a Bitcoin narrative, not an altcoin season. Why are these altcoins performing even worse than the previous round? Before we continue, I want to remind you all that cryptocurrency investment is a high-risk venture. If you don't understand it, please don't get involved randomly. This is not financial advice; cryptocurrency investments are really high risk.

So if we don't understand it, please don't touch anything said today. It's not financial advice. Okay, let's first talk about why this round of altcoins is so much worse than the previous one. Everyone knows that in the previous round, actually in 2018, yes, it rose in 2017, reached a peak in 2018, and then kept falling. But at that time, many new forms of tokens emerged, including BNB from Binance, and also tokens like Polygon's Matic. These were all products of the bull market. So, in 2021 and 2020, when it reached a peak, we can see, for example, Matic appeared in 2019, and then in 2021, it reached this peak. Why did people feel more at that time? It's because since Ethereum came out until now, at least the tokens that appeared with the exchange period, were mainly in 2017, 2018, and 2019. Most tokens were listed in 2017, 2018, and also in 2019. So at that time, you could choose tokens.

Actually, very, very few compared to now with so many cryptocurrencies. Major exchanges including Binance are forced to list a large number of tokens. In the last bull market - what we are talking about now is the one before last - why did everyone feel so much? It means that many of these tokens, you actually don't need to choose a few, they all outperform. How much difference is there in this round? Let me give you an example. Everyone can look at this data here. Ah, take a look at this article talking about the new TOKEN by blockchain. You can see this data to understand that just by going up, last month in May, Solana produced 1 million tokens. Back in 1819, I remember Solana hadn't even been issued by anyone. But for example, Solana hadn't even come out yet, right? And most of these chains like Polygon, the tokens of these chains have already been traded, but the chains themselves cannot operate yet, including projects like Nier.

There may be some small toilets or small groups that go online and then come down. So at that time, it was very, very difficult to launch a coin. And after most of the coins were launched, you had to go to the exchange to truly complete the coin launch because there were no decentralized exchanges back then. So, this LC battle did not drive it this time because the market was too diluted. There are millions of tokens listed, and new tokens are discovered every day, with tens of thousands of them appearing. We can see all of these every day. This data shows that the market is diluted, and everyone's attention is scattered in many places. One reason why Aircoin performed poorly this time is because of this. Another piece of data we can see is in the entire DeFi track. Because the new products of the last bull market were DeFi, as we just mentioned, Polygon, Near, Binance Coin, and Binance Smart Chain are products of the last bull market, and their performance has continued until now. If we look at the products of the last bull market.

One of the most famous is the low anti- Then we look at the top 10 TVO's. There are several products that emerged in this round of the bull market, including Eglin Layer's LRT and Renzo. Let's first look at Lido. In the previous bull market in 2021, we can scroll down here. In 2021, it reached its peak. Additionally, let's take a look at the historical high price, which was $7. Compared to the current price, it has fallen by 72.9 percent. The lowest point was two years ago on June 18, 2022. So, it hasn't performed well, hasn't outperformed the market, and hasn't followed the same path as Bitcoin. This is also one of the representatives of the Innovator, saying that it is the first anti-project in the market. It hasn't followed the price of Bitcoin because theoretically, cryptocurrencies are a sector, and you should drive the entire sector, just like tech stocks. So, why do we want to see?

Each of these represents one reason we might talk about. Usually, it's about 500 days after the Bitcoin halving. Well, it only arrived at this West Station. But if this is to happen, it will be around October next year. So many people say that around October next year, it will reach its peak. But it's possible that this has already happened, but it's just performing very poorly because there are two other events that have occurred, which are the Bitcoin ETF and the Ethereum ETF. Before the Bitcoin halving, these two things did not exist, so with the halving, the market is more focused on the three main tracks: RWBA, LRT, and AI. Another one that is performing very well but the market is not primarily focused on is the private tokens. These three things did not exist when we looked at Bitcoin data in the past. They are new products that have driven the entire market. Now let's take a look at Wei. Wei also reached its peak on May 18, 2021.

Then the price is 66 billion US dollars. Now RV's performance is at 80 US dollars. So, there is another piece of data. This is the second largest low-fee product. The current storage is 19.6 billion US dollars. And it has also lagged behind Bitcoin and Ethereum. Next, let's take a look at Makerdal. The highest point was 6,292 US dollars, and now it is 2,210 US dollars. Similarly, it is lagging behind. The last peak was also in May 2021. When we look at UNISA, it was also the most famous project in the previous period. The historical high price now is 44.92 in May 2021, and now the price is 9.94. The only one that has outperformed is the one that came out in Defi. These are all the top 10. Only one outperformed in the top 20. This means that for the most part, if you haven't bought Pando in Defi, you are lagging behind. Unless you are doing long or short, then we won't look at it. Let's focus on spot. Only one outperformed, which is Pando. The historical low price of Pando in the previous period was 0.03.

The historical high price was 7.50, and now it's 5.16. Okay, it has dropped a bit now, but over here, there is an indication. I just forgot because this historical high price is different from the previous ones. This historical high price was on April 11, 2024, in this round that reached otamp. So, because of these recent years, it outperformed the entire market and exceeded its historical low price. So, in the previous round, the highest price was actually 2.27 when it was listed, and then it kept dropping. Additionally, we can see that the content of Creatine is relatively high, similar to Polygo in the previous round. It also reached a new high point when it was listed until 2021. However, in this round, it also fell behind. Now, let's look at Rocket Pool. Does Rocket Pool have the same situation as Rocket Pool?

The RWA track, which cost 61 dollars, was actually last year, on April 16th. The RWA track was emphasized and compared with Lindo, and only a few managed to win. However, the main Dubai projects were all losing. Well, that's it. We just talked about two pieces of data. One is that there are too many coins issued recently, so everyone's attention cannot focus on just one. Unlike the previous round with only a dozen tokens like Polygon and BNB, now there are many more, including many low-reversal products. Of course, it's impossible to focus on just a few tracks that can gather these chips. One of the surgical tracks is the RESTAKING track, and the Liquid RESTAKING track. These two tracks have a reserve of 20 billion dollars, all of which are new projects. And the other one, Liquid RESTAKING, has 14 billion dollars, also with all new projects and funds.

These two tracks are the only ones that have produced new things in this round of the bull market, and have enough funds. Other tracks are all losing. For example, if you talk about the futures market, like last year, for a while, GMX-type tracks came out, but all ended up losing. Also, in the lending market, projects on various chains are also losing. So, after discussing these, the first part is about losing big boards. Additionally, outside of the big picture, we also talked about this - the market has too many tokens. Thirdly, what we need to talk about is fragmentation liquidity fragmentation. There are too many L2s now. By looking at these L2 beats, we can see that there are a lot of L2s, much more than before. How many? In the last bull market, it was 10 times, and in the bull market before that, it was 100 times. So, for example, in the previous bull market, if there was only one L2, now there are 100 L2s below it. Oh right. The difference in these quantities lies in the fact that the current liquidity is very fragmented, so the funds are not in one place.

Furthermore, everyone is willing to take risks to try new agreements in order to follow the liquidity of these large projects. We often hear that people are willing to try some lending platforms that they wouldn't normally try in order to mine ZK sing Blast. For example, if Blast didn't offer points today, you wouldn't even go to Blast to do lending. But because Blast offers points, you are willing to trust the products on Blast. However, many of these products, such as contract audits, cannot be focused on and done better. Because in order to shape sales, I have done a lot of that. But not every project is like this. However, once every chain has these incentives, these problems will arise because of fragmentation. So all fragmentation, not just liquidity fragmentation, only has a few audit companies. There aren't many new companies. Even if there are new companies, there aren't many new audits. This all requires training. So all these things decline, security declines, and the centralization of the sorting system.

People do not care about decentralization, so in order to mine airdrops, they have made many sacrifices and taken risks. The result is that most chains and projects have been attacked, causing a decrease in overall credibility. From Dubai to now, data shows that nearly $10 billion has been hacked and stolen. These are just the more well-known projects. However, if we look for lesser-known projects, many with amounts of three to four million dollars have not been reported or recorded in the Red Table. You can check this Red Table, which basically compares all the attacked projects. Let's look at the Crypto Leaderboard. The top ranks are as follows: March 20, 2022 - $620.4 million, August 10, 2021 - $610 million, October 6, 2020 - $886 million, November 12, 2022 - $470 million, February 2, 2022 - $326 million, May 30, 2024.

$340 million. So, you see, each one has surpassed a billion. Let me ask you a question. When was the last time you heard of a bank being robbed, succeeding, and not being able to recover the money? Basically, you haven't heard of it. But in the DeFi crypto market, this happens every day. So, this is another reason why this round of bull market is driving the market cap up, driving up Ethereum, driving up large projects like BNB hitting new highs. However, it cannot push the low-cap protocols up. We encounter many of these issues. Additionally, let's take a look at this data we just mentioned. Most of it is beyond speculation. There is another piece of data worth looking at, which is the timeline. Alcoins are still seventy percent away from their previous highs, compared to Bitcoin, which is near its all-time high. This means that if we compare now, in theory, Alcoins still have a long way to go. But we must say that when we look at all the data today, it indicates that the last time Bitcoin was trapped, it will drive these Alcoins.

ALCOIN should follow along because historically, especially when I entered the circle in the spring of 2011, I often saw Bitcoin rise, followed by things like Monaco, I mean Monero, and status, even earlier ones like Dash, like Coin, and even rappers would rise along with them, right? But this time, it has become increasingly difficult. So, what else can we look at? Another thing we can look at is the track. This track is really very, very challenging. We can look at another chart, maybe this one. Okay, in terms of the narrative, you see, it fits what we just said. This LSD, its performance is the best. The first shot and the lone one are losing. Now, game five is losing even worse, and decks are losing even worse. So, in this kind of LRT track, it's also losing now. If we look at the current decline, but if we don't just look at this last round.

If it's about products or projects, the worst to input should be GameFi and DeFi. Like this oracle-related, the few oracle projects didn't perform well mainly because they did too well in the previous round. Another absurd thing is Chainlink, which is actually the most core and essential product in the market. Of course, it's the new generation entering the market. Yes, the cryptocurrency market has already gone through several generations. The new generation doesn't buy into the old coins; they prefer to buy newly issued tokens and then speculate on them. This is also what we just mentioned, that every day there are a lot of new tokens appearing. Oh, and then there's Unlock. We can see from here that Unlock has a lot, a lot of tokens now. Looking at this chart, every day there are unlocks. This is the product of the previous bull market, right? You unlocked in the previous bull market, and that's when the investment started unlocking.

We have seen a lot of recent sharp declines in various tokens. Actually, it is very difficult to say that as a retail investor, choosing any token will not encounter a sharp drop because there are too many factors at play. For example, not lowering interest rates is a factor, and if the ETF is not approved, that is another factor. If today the team unlocks the market, unlocks staking, all of these could potentially cause the most terrifying thing, which is the project being attacked, leading to a sharp decline. So, there are too many reasons, completely different from traditional stock markets, and also different from Bitcoin because Bitcoin is basically not prone to attacks. Bitcoin basically does not have many large unlocks. In the past, the Mangax unlocks have been absorbed very well. So, finally, let's talk about the press cycle. As we just mentioned, the previous and the one before that, altcoins have peaked exactly 546 days after happening. If the cycle follows the same trend, this would suggest an altcoin peak in October 2025.

It was halved in the previous one. It was halved in July 2016. This altcoin season, the peak was in 2021, 546 days later, it reached a very high peak. This means that after the halving in 2020, 546 days later, and after the halving in 2016, 546 days later, you can see that the Airpoint was earlier back then, and then it increased more at this time. It's about choosing the products of 2017 and 2018. So, now, what happened is that before the halving, some new products appeared, such as in DeFi and others. Instead, it rose along with the peak and now it has come to this decline. Talking about this decline, when we reach 546 days, it will be around October 2025, theoretically reaching the peak. This also means that we might be halfway there now. Will we reach there? We don't know because I think what's more difficult now, especially if everyone can review some of my videos, is when I was choosing Dai before.

There really isn't much to choose from, so it's really easy to choose. Theoretically, it's better to hold onto wine, and you can win by running. Most of the old birds are mainly trapped and eat. Many old birds have been trapped and eaten for a long time and don't talk much about these things. They mainly talk about Al Coins. Well, if you want to win by running Al Coins, it's very, very hard. And I think most private equity investors also lose a lot because, first of all, they are very strong in what they create, so even when the currency price rises, they don't have the opportunity to exit. This is the cruelest point. So, after watching this, what do you think we should consult on? Well, I think anyway, everyone can watch past videos. We've talked a lot about the relevant crashes, and we've survived many times. We've seen even worse situations with Ethereum and Bitcoin. So I think during this process, many people will leave, and many people won't stay in the market, but one thing can be guaranteed: we will continue to film.

We will continue here to introduce guests or visitors, introduce the whole market, and also guide everyone from not talking about DeFi to talking about DeFi, from not having NFTs to having NFTs, from not having this LRT to talking about LRT. So, from now on, without the base ROP, and then we talk about the concept of base ROP. So, I think that in the cryptocurrency circle, when you start a business, don't just think about trading, you can think about diversifying. There are many opportunities. Of course, if you always listen to negative people, there will be a lot of negativity, a lot of criticism at this time, mocking, and these ways. But based on my past experience, you have to be able to get through it, you have to persevere. I have been scolded by my family, laughed at by my family. Just as I said before, many people just want to say to you, I told you so, I told you so. But you know what, you have to find a way to hold on.

Find a way to get through it, then you will be able to. Just like friends in the group would say, Hey, look, the other day he said it would rise, and now it's falling. Hey, the other day he said it would fall, and now it's rising. I think you don't need to be influenced by these. You need to have your own ideas and make your own decisions. For example, when I bought Ethereum, it hadn't even been released yet, and it was uncertain if I would get it. It wasn't until 2015 that Ethereum started trading. If I had sold it right at the beginning, I wouldn't be here today. If I had sold it when it rose, I wouldn't be here today. If I had traded frequently, I wouldn't be where I am now. At the same time, we support many protocols like Curve, Pandall, GMX, Radiant, Hoffer, Swell, Egon, Layer, and Athena. I think you should hold onto a belief and your own ideas. I have my own beliefs and follow my own ideas.

But this may not necessarily be suitable for you, or for you to follow or choose. What I can do is share what I see, my experiences, and what risks I can bear, which may be too much for many. Do you know? So, but I think you should always remember that this market is very high risk. Don't make investments that you can't afford, and don't be influenced by your peers or the market to overdo it. And most importantly, I think it's important to talk to yourself on a spiritual level. I think trading, the trading environment, I discuss this with the biggest traders, it's about the spiritual level, how to handle pressure from all sides. I believe all traders know this. People might say just look at the data, no, no way. I go through, you know, some of the best liquid funds. Everyone discusses the psychological and emotional aspects, how to handle pressure from your girlfriend, family, mortgages, student loans, car loans, all these pressures on you.

In the various environments around you, from being laughed at to succeeding, and then being laughed at again, how do you get through these processes? How do you achieve results? So, you know, I believe that positivity is everything. So, you know, I've been through so much, but I also got through it. I believe that there must be something you can do right. So, hold on. Getting through it, so I think this is very important. So, I think the core purpose of filming these things is not for you guys. I think filming these vlog videos is for myself, to tell myself that I have to keep filming. If I don't film, I won't meet Egon Loyal. If I don't film, I won't meet Puffer. If I don't film, I won't meet Fina. If I don't film, I won't be aware of the latest issues, the latest projects. If I don't film, I won't receive recognition from other capitals. So, it's for myself, to get to know these agreements, these projects. At the same time, in this way, introducing them to the community, this is a group.

So, the same goes for you. You also need to speak for yourself. I often tell everyone that in this market, slashes are very important. Especially now with AI, you should write more on Twitter, shoot more videos, and get more people to watch. Many people come to me and say, Hey, we were inspired by you to make these videos. So, when the market crashes, you need to think more about what kind of income you want, what kind of things you need, and what ways can help you increase. That's kind of how I think it makes sense right now. There will always be people saying all sorts of things, but you know what? You just have to do it. You can't always live being manipulated by others, being gaslighted. You have to find a way to hold yourself up. So, in the end, this video ends here. I know many people keep telling me that podcasts are necessary. We should continue to climb. We always motivate everyone inside. I also want to find time, maybe schedule it for Thursday, and then chat with everyone more about the market and share ideas.

Today, most of the time while shooting this video, I also spoke with many project founders about their experiences. Some founders had family issues, while others encountered problems with engineers in various projects, many of which are top-tier projects that everyone can see. As a consultant, one of the main things I do is to help develop and think about business models, connections, and beyond. However, the most important thing I do is to share my experiences. Often, it's just talking, you know, sharing experiences. Because honestly, if you haven't been an entrepreneur and experienced a bear market or a bull market crash, and faced situations like losing investors or investors deciding not to transfer funds, you would face various pressures. Perhaps at the same time, you signed a new office lease or your colleagues hired new employees. In these moments, counseling and sharing ideas and experiences are essential.

So yeah, I think we can't predict the market, we can't say after looking at this data today, Oh, it's going to rise in October next year. We don't know this thing, don't understand it, and can't really say. But we can share some thoughts for everyone to refer to. And then, I will put these links down below, and everyone can go check them out. Maybe this data is also wrong because many data are wrong, yes, most of the data are wrong. So you have to find a way to think, to come up with your own theory. Yeah, I think we will shoot another episode for Wednesday today, and then we will talk about ecology again, talk about projects. If you have any topics, you can leave a comment below and tell me. There are a few big events this year that everyone is looking forward to. The main thing is when this record needs to be cut, and another thing everyone is looking forward to is the US Federal Reserve. And another thing that people have been talking about recently is that there are more things happening on Wall Street.

There are veteran actors talking about Dogecoin ETF or Solana ETF. Is it possible for these two things? Because they are different from Ethereum and Bitcoin. If the Salana or Doge ETF is approved, it means that other altcoins have a chance. Um, yeah, that's pretty much it, man. Is there anything else to talk about? Yeah, man, f*ck. It really feels like a lot of support, a lot of support. Just hope everyone can watch our many videos from the past few years and slowly absorb them. Oh, yeah, I mean, I don't know how to say it. It's not really about staying in the same circle. Hey, Fage, I've been around for almost 13 years, so I can only say it's all about experience. Experience doesn't mean it's right, but, oh, finally, I want to talk about something I originally wanted to discuss in a necessary podcast. I actually prepared a lot of content for the podcast, but I never got to talk about it. The other day, I heard another trader talking about something. He said there's nothing that is absolute.

Most people say that the majority of traders don't like to talk, just like me. I don't talk about Liquid with everyone, but sometimes when I meet up, I mention the name of this top-performing Liquid. There is one with a very long name, and it's super hard to pronounce because it's not a normal English word. When I mention it like this, those who know, know; those who don't, don't. So, when everyone talks about Liquifer in the market, most of them don't perform as well. Well, he basically doesn't post or write anything, but he also doesn't go around talking about how good he is. However, he often mentions one thing, which is that he can perform so well. The core reason, besides what we say about high-frequency trading, data, and the investments I've made in several liquor houses, is that only he performs the best. I really can cash out without external financing. It's true. I've only had plastic surgery once, and that was it. He's also had it once, and he said the most important thing in beauty is survival, just those two words, because...

Only by surviving do you have a tomorrow to continue fighting. It sounds easy, but it's actually something most people can't do. It's a bit like playing poker; you might think, I still have money in the bank, losing today doesn't matter. If that's the case, it means you're still alive, you still have something. So, whenever you make a decision, you need to think about whether you can survive. You can't just say you only have three sets left, four sets, or five sets; you must have around a hundred sets, a satisfactory price for each set. You must look at it one set at a time. Therefore, you must revive. Another important way is that you must have passive income. You must find various ways to regenerate. When we look at when Crypto started to become popular in Taiwan, it should be around 2017. But I had already been in it for a long time. However, if we talk about starting to make videos...

From 2016 until now, you see how many people have come and then a huge fireworks display, and then disappeared. So, survival is everything. You have to make your survival the utmost important thing because once you can't, all kinds of laughter, all kinds of flirting, all kinds of chatting with friends, saying that it doesn't matter because survival is everything, right? No one's gonna give a care about you, right? I often feel that everyone is just laughing now. You might ask someone to lend you money today, ask someone to help you make an appointment for a meal, but at the end of the day, we all know that you are by yourself in this world. So, in any transaction you make, in any choice you make, you can't think that tomorrow your dad will help you, your mom will help you, your wife will help you. No, you're by yourself, so survivability is everything. Why think so extreme? Just like when you do a Liquid font, like this person doing Liquid font, he's so extreme, he thinks of this font as everything. He found one and he thinks that the expression of this font is everything, right? So, just go all out with this attitude.

So it's very important for many people. Recently, many people have asked me, Hey, do I still have any Bitcoin? I've never sold my Bitcoin. Everyone I know knows that I have a Bitcoin wallet. I really don't understand. I might not remember the password I set, but if I want to, I should be able to remember it. And the meaning is the same. I just have two very large percentages, and I never, never... you know, understand. Those projects I invested in also know that I don't sell coins anymore. I don't fucking know what I would do if I sold coins. Most of the time, I really just don't sell coins. There are many ways not to sell coins. Especially if you manage to find these top-tier projects, there are actually many ways you can do it online. Staking is a real option. That's why, if we pay attention, like Curve CRV, you can stake CRV and borrow money. People are willing to lend to you under this agreement. Similarly, Elon Musk can mortgage Tesla to borrow. Of course, these two things cannot be compared.

But these two things can indeed do the same thing. However, most of the necessities we see in the market cannot be pledged for borrowing. This also vaguely tells you that some projects are really valued more by others. For example, if we look at CRV, in the market, how many altcoins do you have that can be taken out and others are willing to save them? Very few, there are a few but very few. OnePo is also one of the few that have been saved. Of course, John is very wealthy, but if you want to overcome the lone battle of the founder, it really is a person who has the ability to borrow. If everyone seriously talks about this matter, think about it, if you were a founder today, and you were in the same situation, would anyone lend you money? Would anyone help you pay off your bad debts and give you 10 million within a day without signing any contracts with you? If everyone seriously thinks about this matter, everyone is laughing there, talking about overcoming mortgages, and then being defeated. Overcoming between overcoming is also the same, with a long position of over 2 billion.

He didn't disappear, but the founder lost a lot of money and was liquidated. But if you think about it seriously, if you go do it today and encounter the same situation, can you tell many people that signing this contract is terrible? They didn't even sign the contract. How can you blame him? But think about it, since he wanted to borrow money, theoretically, the people lending him money should make him sign a contract. The people who lent him money didn't ask him to sign any contract at all. It also tells us how strong the credit established by this founder or team in the market is. Ask your friends around you who would be willing to lend you money, who would be willing to help you. And then think back on these things, you will find that, you know, talkers will always talk, right? But in the end, there are only a few people, a few people on the field who truly have the ability, especially to help in this situation. So, this is also what I think survival ability is. You can only build up this credit if you survive. You can only fight another battle on this field if you survive, right? Survival is everything. Suddenly, I want to talk about The Art of War by Sun Tzu.

Um, you know, of course, in this segment, survival is like before, you must, of course, your trades are a bit like being on the battlefield, but you can't just send all your troops up and then die, and you're done. Yeah man, fuck man, don't know what to say. Everyone just talks like this. I feel it's a good time to share some of my thoughts. If you guys like to hear these things, we can discuss them in more detail in the next necessary podcast. Lastly, I want to remind everyone that Jam will be a very high-risk investment. If you don't understand, absolutely do not randomly touch it. That's not any financial advice. Cryptocurrency investment is really high risk, so if you don't understand it, please don't touch anything said today. It's not financial advice. See you in the next issue. Hang in there until the next news. Bye-bye.

市場趨勢：牛市是否已結束？鏈上數據分析 比特幣ETF的影響 - 議題討論（997集）

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市場趨勢：牛市是否已結束？鏈上數據分析比特幣ETF的影響 - 議題討論（997集）

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市場趨勢：牛市是否已結束？鏈上數據分析 比特幣ETF的影響 - 議題討論（997集）

Scripts

市場趨勢：牛市是否已結束？鏈上數據分析比特幣ETF的影響 - 議題討論（997集）