are there any warning signs to look out for when a market is going to crash? Oh, when a market's going to crash, uh, many, many months of distribution at the top of a market.

So what I mean by distribution was defined by uh Richard Wyckoff, he says that there's three, basically three stages.

At the bottom there's accumulation by insiders and that takes period over months and months and months. These are very sophisticated people that have got the ability to buy a share but not push the price up.

So they will surreptitiously take a 100 here, 200 here, 200 here and they will accumulate and they're good at it without pushing the price up.

And then all of a sudden you have markup where all of a sudden uh all the people that are in the know have got filled and uh the rumor gets out that this share is going to do really well and then sort of more naive people keep sort of buying it at market and driving it up the pedge and then when it gets to a point uh where it's shot right past value uh then uh you get distribution and the same people who surreptitiously uh bought it will be surreptitiously off-loading it.

Now at the bottom of a market if the price spikes up you should see the volume rising.

So every time you see a spike up the volume should rise on that spike. That's accumulation. In the distribution stage as the price falls the volume should rise and as the price spikes up the volume should fall.

So by and sometimes it's not easy to see but by looking at price and volume you can actually tell whether you're in being an accumulation phase or a distribution phase.

That's in an ideal world. Sometimes it's not easy uh to actually work that out.

So if in a bullish market, uh, prices, as price rises, the volume rises. As price falls, the volume falls. In a bearish market, as the price falls, the volume rises, and as the price rallies, the volume falls.

So by looking at price and volume, you can tell that VectorVest looks at the breadth of the market in great detail.

And invariably, when a market rises, it will rise strongly across the board, and then towards the tail end of the trend, you'll find that it starts to rise on a falling breadth.

In other words, it's been propped up by one or two companies.

A classic example of this was the NASDAQ, which rose on one company, one company only. It's called Apple, okay? So on the, uh, New York Stock Market at the moment, uh, we follow 7,500 shares on the New York Stock Market, on the NASDAQ, and, uh, the other exchanges.

And at the minute, the New York Stock Market, the American stock market, should I say, has broken up to new highs, but our buy-sell ratio, in fact, is falling, and that's saying that the breadth of the American market is narrowing, and that's an advanced warning that we're going to get a pullback.

I'm not seeing a crash. I'm not seeing a crash at all, a pullback, and that pullback could easily be that selling man go away thing that we see.

시장 폭락의 전조, 세력이 매집하는 방법, 와이코프 축적 분배

Scripts