EARLY NUMBERS ARE A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. WE NEED A LOT MORE THAN THAT. HERE'S HOW WE SEE IT. YOU DON'T PICK UP TOO MUCH RAIN IN THE INITIAL LITTLE ABOUT COMING THROUGH THE AREA, BUT THEN YOU LOOK AT WHAT WE ARE WATCHING SUNDAY, MONDAY, TUESDAY. YOU PICK UP AGAIN A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH, NOT ENOUGH TO HELP US OUT AROUND HERE. LET'S BRING UP THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST. 73 TUESDAY, 76 WEDNESDAY. THAT COULD BE A RECORD. THE RECORD IS 75. 69 ON THURSDAY, SO WE DO DROP DOWN.

BE RECORD WARMTH IF WE HIT 76. THAT'S A POSSIBILITY. RAFAEL TROPICAL STORM RAPHAEL IS HEADING TOWARDS THE GULF OF MEXICO. RIGHT NOW IT'S AROUND JAMAICA AND WILL PUSH TOWARD THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. BUT WE COULD ACTUALLY SEE POSSIBLY SOME MUCH-NEEDED REMNANT RAIN OUT OF RAPHAEL BY SUNDAY GOING INTO MONDAY. I WILL GIVE YOU SOME LATEST INFORMATION ON THAT IN A MOMENT. BUT I DO WANT TO CHECK IN ON THE DROUGHT SITUATION. THIS BROWN COLOR DOWN HERE IS SEVERE DROUGHT OCEAN COUNTY AND NORTHERN MONMOUTH COUNTY ALL THE WAY UP TO PORTIONS OF SULLIVAN COUNTY MODERATE DROUGHT AND BY THIS

AND TWICE THE CAPACITY NEEDED FOR DOGS. >>> LET'S GET BACK TO OUR FORECAST. IT'S GOING TO GET WARM ONCE AGAIN AS WE ARE WELL INTO FALL HERE. >> NOVEMBER, YOU ARE RIGHT IN HERE. WE GO TEMPERATURES ARE GOING UP, SHOULD BE GOING DOWN, THE OPPOSITE. SO THE PICTURE OUTSIDE RIGHT NOW, YOU DO HAVE SOME CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES COMING IN 57 DEGREES, AND WHATEVER CLOUDS YOU HAVE, NOT GIVING US ANY RAIN, OR DO WE NEED RAIN? NEW YORK CITY HAS DECLARED A DROUGHT WATCH IN THE CITY, AND IS THERE RAIN BREWING OUT THERE? NOT SO MUCH. IN FACT, WHAT IS OUT THERE? THOSE WARM TEMPERATURES I'M TALKING ABOUT, 73 TOMORROW. YOU COULD BE 76 ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH WOULD

WEDNESDAY. BUT WATCH, IT JUST DISSOLVES AND THAT'S YOUR RAIN CHANCE. THAT IS YOUR RAIN CHANCE WEDNESDAY AROUND 3:30 PM IN THE AFTERNOON. PUSHING OUT AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER ON THURSDAY BUT IT IS STILL PRETTY DARN MILD OUT THERE. TROPICAL STORM RAPHAEL RIGHT NOW IS PUSHING TOWARDS JAMAICA AND EVENTUALLY THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. POSSIBLY A CATEGORY ONE AS IT MOVES OVER CUBA AND A TROPICAL STORM MAKING LANDFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE GULF COAST THEN MAKING A BIG CURB TO THE NORTH AND EAST. DOES IT COME TO OUR AREA? THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM RIGHT NOW THE

COMING THURSDAY. WHEN WE HAVE A NEW DROUGHT REPORT THAT IS PUT OUT, I THINK THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE UNDER SOME KIND OF A DROUGHT. THE YELLOW SHOWS YOU ABNORMALLY DRY. WE NEED RAIN AND ARE NOT PICKING UP. SKIES ARE LOOKING FINE. THERE ARE CLOUDS AND WET WEATHER OFF TO OUR WEST, BUT IT DOES NOT MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL, AND IT'S LIKE A DEFLECTOR SHIELD. THE HIGH IS BOUNCING ALL OF THE RAIN AND KEEPING IT OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA, GOING UP AND OVER THE HIGH. AND YOU CAN LITERALLY SEE THE RIDGE OF THE HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM RIGHT THERE. THERE IS YOUR HIGH END IS IN CONTROL. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SQUEEZE IN HERE, MAYBE LATE

First Alert Weather: 70s the next 2 days, then 60s the rest of the work week

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