Hey everyone, welcome to the Plain Bagel! I'm your host, Kevin. We made it to the end of 2024, which is quite remarkable when you really think about it. But as we enter the season of warm, cozy sweaters and hot beverages by the mantle, I figured we'd

take some time to look back on the year and remember some of the key events that really defined 2024. With their annual finance rewind, a bit of a tradition on this channel, we look back and discuss some of the things that maybe we've forgotten really happened this year. It

also gives us a good opportunity to talk about the major themes that people will be keeping an eye on in 2025. So, without further ado, let's hop into it. Things started off in January with, I suppose, some subtle foreshadowing. When, on

January 10th, the Securities and Exchange Commission approved the creation of the first-ever US Bitcoin spot ETF, meaning US investors can now buy the cryptocurrency through traditional means, just as easily as they would any stock. Now, the US already had futures-based Bitcoin ETFs, and Canada did launch its own spot

Bitcoin ETF back in 2021.  And nonetheless, this marked a meaningful shift in the SEC regarding its stance towards cryptocurrencies, with the move being followed by an Ether spot ETF approval in July and murmurs of further approvals to come. January 29th, we got the update

that Evergrande, the struggling Chinese real estate developer behemoth, whose downfall has been playing out like a long, stretching telenovela, had been ordered to liquidate by a Hong Kong court after failing to convince the judge that it had a viable reorganization plan. The company has now

on paper, been handed over to liquidators, but remains in bankruptcy limbo, recently having a key liquidation hearing postponed to the new year, and questions remaining on how much access liquidators will ultimately be given to mainland assets. China as a whole continues to

grapple with a struggling real estate sector and wavering economic growth. Speaking of long-stretching dramas, on March 28th, we saw Sam Bankman-Fried, the disgraced founder of failed cryptocurrency exchange FTX, sentenced to 115 years in prison for his part in the

collapse of the company. The quirky billionaire was found guilty last November of commingling client funds with his hedge fund, Alameda Research, and actively hiding his activity from customers and even internal audits. Now, while the exchange ultimately failed due to not being able to meet customer

withdrawal requests, having either lost or tied up customer assets, interestingly, not long after the sentencing, in May, we saw the exchange announce that it expected to be able to refund 98% of its customers with 118% of their deposit balances as of November

2022. In part, thanks to the rebound of cryptocurrencies, albeit that valuation date did mark a near-perfect bottom for cryptocurrency markets, making it a pretty low bar to pass. While the plan was court-approved in October, with an effective date of Halloween, the company

has since guided for these refunds to begin in early 2025. April 13th, we had the escalation of the Israel-Hamas conflict as Hamas fired over 300 rockets and drones at Israel, marking the first major attack between the two entities in years. The move came as retaliation for an

Israeli air strike on an Iranian Consulate in Damascus and would be followed by Israel's own missile strike response. The Israel-Hamas conflict has led to tens of thousands of casualties, the vast majority of which have been among Palestinians, as Israel fights to free the remaining hostages from the

October 7, 2023 attack. There have been glimmers of hope that peace talks may yet come, with Hezbollah, a Lebanon-based group involved in the conflict, recently signing a shaky ceasefire with Israel. But in the meantime, the war continues to

wreak devastation on those in the region. April 16th, in a bit of Canadian news, the federal government released its 2024 budget that included a controversial change to capital gains tax, whereby certain taxpayers would now see their inclusion rate, or how much of their

investment returns are actually taxed, increased from half to two-thirds. While the move generally only affected higher-income individuals, it also applied broadly to corporations, something that in Canada is a common retirement savings vehicle for doctors, which the country is painfully short of. The change came into

effect June 25th. May 16th, we have what I've been informed has been the defining moment for markets in 2024, as this meme was posted to Twitter. Yes, this is finance news in 2024. The image, posted by mysterious meme stock leader Keith Gill, AKA Roaring Kitty,

was followed by a series of further cryptic posts that fueled another frenzy of buying activity of meme stocks, namely GameStop, as investors would seemingly try to recapture the magic of 2021. While Keith Gill ultimately didn't reveal any master plans in his later live stream,

The stock managed to maintain some of its gained ground, rising roughly 70% year-to-date. In similar silly news, on June 9th, we got the shocking headline that Saudi Arabia had ditched the US dollar by failing to renew its 50-year

petrodollar agreement, whereby global oil sales were priced in the greenback. And the dollar didn't do anything because, uh, none of it was true. Instead, the viral story turned out to be a poorly researched rumor that misquoted another June 8th, 1974, agreement that had

nothing to do with the petrodollar and managed to spread like wildfire among online finance communities. The US dollar continues to not be abandoned and is actually up compared to other currencies, with the dollar index rising roughly 5% for the year. June 18th, and what would reflect

the key investment theme for the year, Nvidia briefly surpassed Microsoft as the world's most valuable company, reaching a market cap at the time of $3.34 trillion US. The meteor rise of the stock reflected the unprecedented demand for the company's chips to fuel AI

development, with a swathe of companies introducing new and improved generative AI offerings throughout the year. On a related note, we would later see Microsoft resurrect its own nuclear power plant to help support its own AI initiatives, a move that highlights the crushing demand for energy this tech

revolution brings with it. August 5th, we have what many would dub the great unwinding, where over the span of three weeks, we see $6.4 trillion wiped from global markets as an estimated $200 billion of Japanese carry trades

are reversed. A carry trade is when investors borrow in one currency and convert it to invest in another to try and take advantage of varying interest rates. But a rate hike by the Bank of Japan that brought its policy rate above 0%, and the anticipation of this rate cut,

prompted a rally in the yen that made this trade unprofitable, which led many traders to liquidate their holdings. Now, while many would blame this unwinding for stocks selling off and the NASDAQ entering correction territory, the event did also coincide with new labor data

triggering the Sahm rule in the United States, a supposed recession indicator that activates when the current 3-month average unemployment rate rises 0.5 percentage points above the lowest 3-month average over the last 12 months. Regardless of the cause, the S&P 500

would ultimately drop nearly 8% over just a few days before, not long after, recovering all of its lost ground, and most investors forgetting about the important indicator that they had just looked up on Investopedia. I'm not saying me, I'm just saying some

people hadn't heard about it before September 18th. Another key economic theme for the year: the Federal Reserve carried out its first rate cut in four years, reducing the federal funds rate by 50 basis points. The move came after several other central banks,

including here in Canada, had already kicked off their own rate-cutting campaigns, and seemed to finally mark the end of the Federal Reserve's brutal fight against inflation, which had finally dropped below 3%. The Fed would go on to carry out another rate cut in

November, but with inflation having since crept a little bit higher, concerns remain that the fight may not yet be won. September 29th, we would see China experience its biggest single-day rally in stocks since 2008, as China would announce a slew of new stimulus measures.

First, on the Tuesday, as the People's Bank of China announced relief measures for home buyers and incentives for further borrowing and investment, and on the Thursday, as the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, or Politburo for short, vowed to deploy sufficient fiscal

spend to ensure the economy met its 5% economic growth target. The move would be followed by further stimulus measures announced throughout the year. And while markets and economists would have mixed reactions regarding the follow-through with this plan, stocks would manage to

hold on to most of their gained ground from this rally. October 13th, in more tech-focused news, we saw SpaceX carry out its best karate kid impression and wowed the world by doing this.  Shut, the engineering marvel where the 'chopsticks,' as they're informally

called, managed to catch one of the company's mega rocket boosters, marked a significant step in the firm's attempt to bring reusability to the space travel industry. It was just one of many impressive tech reveals from companies run by Elon Musk, with his company Tesla

also unveiling robotaxis, robovans, and robots with the Optimus showcasing impressive capabilities at a Tesla event. Thanks to being powered by state-of-the-art artificial intelligence, robots are the future. Elon Musk has made promises that one day these robots will

will, in fact, be autonomous. Then, of course, moving on to November 5th, we had one of the most important updates of the year, as Donald Trump was re-elected as the 47th president of the United States. The victory came after an incredibly tumultuous campaign that saw Joe Biden

tapped out of the race by Kamala Harris following a number of blunders, and even saw the attempted assassination of Donald Trump. And things haven't really stopped being all that tumultuous since. We've already seen a slew of controversial actions from the president-

elect, including a promise to slap massive tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada; plans to carry out mass deportations, including possibly for Americans born in the country; making questionable nominations for key positions in the government; suggesting, as a joke, that Canada become America's 51st state; and announcing the

creation of a new advisory group to consult Congress on how to cut expenses, titled the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, because of course it is, with it being run by none other than Elon Musk and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy. Now, of course,

Donald Trump's election was quite controversial, given everything that's been going on. But so far, it has been viewed quite positively by the markets, given his goal to seemingly cut taxes and his positioning as a crypto-friendly president, which makes sense since he

launched his own coin back in October. Now, on to a more somber note, and sadly, a bit of another theme of the year. On November 19th, we reached the milestone of the 1,000th day since Russia first invaded Ukraine, a war that, according to

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has seen 43,000 Ukrainian soldier deaths and nearly 200,000 Russian deaths. The war has continued to escalate in terms of rhetoric, those involved, and the weapons being used, with North Korea sending its own troops to Russia and the US giving

Ukraine permission to use its long-range missiles for strikes inside of Russia. Now, with Donald Trump winning his second term and promising a swift resolution, it remains unclear what kind of support Ukraine will maintain under the new presidency. In news also related to Trump, on November 21st, we saw SEC

Chair Gary Gensler announce that he would be leaving his position come January 20th. Gary Gensler was first nominated to the position in 2021 under Biden and was supposed to hold the position until 2026. But with Donald

Trump threatening to fire him on day one (something he technically didn't seem to have the authority to do), it seems Gary figured it was better to leave than deal with a begrudged boss. Gary Gensler was known for being rigid with cryptocurrency regulation but is set to

be replaced by Paul Atkins, a former SEC chair who himself has been a vocal supporter of the space. Donald Trump similarly threatened to fire Jerome Powell (who he also doesn't seem to have the authority to fire) but has since walked back those statements, with Powell keen on

keeping the post. Which brings us to December 4th, which, yes, hurts a little bit because that's the date that we saw Bitcoin surpass $100,000 a coin, with the cryptocurrency rising 140%, a good chunk of which would come from a wave of optimism in the...

The space following Donald Trump's election marked a key milestone for the cryptocurrency as more industry players got involved with the asset. It's not the only cryptocurrency running up in price. Dogecoin and Ripple themselves would see even stronger gains, and a new entrant to the space called "Fart coin" would make

headlines for becoming more valuable than a third of publicly listed US companies over just a few months, surging roughly 1,000% before settling lower. Makes me glad I studied finance. And finally, our last headline for this video: on December 9th, just this past

Monday, we saw the shocking update that, following nearly 14 years of civil war in Syria, rebels had overthrown the Assad government in Damascus in what's been described as a lightning rebel advance. Bashar al-Assad, whose family has been in power for 50 years, fled to Moscow where

he's been granted political asylum. The Syrian War has long been viewed as a war of overlapping foreign interests, with Russia and Iran backing the government, and the US, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey backing various rebel groups, among other interests. While this update is viewed as

a victory for the West and brings an end to a brutal regime, the main anxieties are over how HTS, the group who led the rebels in toppling Assad, will ultimately run the country. With the UN still designating the group as a terrorist organization, and with there still being

many opposing factions within Syria, the risk of another civil war remains, which is unfortunately a bit of a theme going into 2025, with Donald Trump's election, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the evolving conflicts in the Middle East, and tightened anxiety around China and

In Taiwan, there's a lot of risk for further escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the New Year. This is paired with concerns for a trade war, with Trump seemingly liking the word tariffs.  'I think tariffs are the most beautiful word,' and concerns related to that, that

we may yet see a reignition of inflation, both from this trade policy as well as stimulus measures in terms of tax cuts and the like. There are also concerns that markets are currently overstretched, given the fact that stocks are trading at a nearly 40

times PE ratio in the US. With the market there now accounting for 70% of the leading global market benchmark, leaving quite a bit of room for companies to fall short of lofty investor expectations. That all being said, we do also have a number of growth drivers,

including the fast-evolving industry of artificial intelligence, with companies still spending intensively on developing the space. This is also expected to fuel demand for power, which many expect to bolster the development of nuclear projects, similar to what we saw with Microsoft. And we continue to see

promising advancements in the drug space with GLP-1 medications, including Ozempic, seemingly being found to benefit a number of key uses. And with geopolitical conflicts abound, there is also a lot of room for improvement there, and hopefully that's what we see. But that is our 2024

rewind. Of course, there are many other important events that happened throughout the year, such as the solar eclipse, the many other elections this year, with 50% of the world's population voting in 2024, and, of course, notably for some, the end of Taylor Swift's Eras Tour in Vancouver.

Hopefully, this video offers an overview of the key events that drove much of the economic performance of the year. Thank you for joining me, and if you've been with us for the year, for sticking around for 2024, uh, I'm tremendously thankful for all the support and feedback you

guys have offered throughout the year. It's been a good one, and I'm looking forward to a great 2025. So, thank you again. Again, happy holidays and a good New Year to you. We'll see you in the next one. That's still water, um, but yeah, have

a good one, guys. Probably one more video, um, but then I'm going to take a break in January. So, thanks.

2024 Finance Rewind - The Year of Trump, AI and Crypto

Investing and personal finance educational videos with a hint of economics, posted regularly.

I'm a CFA and CFP professional working as an analyst for an investment management company in Ottawa. I'm a huge finance nerd and am passionate about the field - I think people lack the resources they need to make educated financial decisions, and hopefully this channel helps with that!

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DISCLAIMER:
The videos on this channel are for education purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Richard Coffin does not provide recommendations on The Plain Bagel - those looking for investment advice should seek out a registered professional. Richard is not responsible for investment actions taken by viewers and his content should not be used as a basis for investment trades.

2024 Finance Rewind - The Year of Trump, AI and Crypto

2024 Finance Rewind - The Year of Trump, AI and Crypto

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