There was a convenience store on the first floor of the building where my office is located, and when I went to work today, I found out that the store was moving. I asked, Why are you moving all of a sudden? They replied that the rent for a store less than 15 pyeong was being raised from 6 million to 7 million won, which they simply couldn't afford. Business wasn't good, taxes were rising, and they couldn't hold on any longer, so they decided to move. Now, to use a convenience store, I have to walk about 250 meters. This is the reality of real estate. 

When you think about buying an apartment worth 1 billion won, how much do you think is appropriate to borrow? 300 million, 400 million, or maybe 500 million? It might vary depending on income and age, but for a 1 billion won apartment, how much do you think is reasonable to borrow? Please share your thoughts in the comments, as everyone has different perspectives. From January to July 2024, I will be taking out a loan.

Among those who bought houses in Seoul, the number of borrowers with loans exceeding 500 million won increased to about 3.7 times the annual total in 2021, when apartment prices peaked. This indicates that the trend of borrowing significantly increased in 2021. From 2020 to early 2022, many people gathered all their resources to buy homes, but were unable to manage their finances, resulting in a large number of homes going to auction. This year, the trend of borrowing has increased even more compared to that time. During the rapid rise in housing prices in 2021, many borrowers were in their 20s and 30s, but this year, those in their 30s and 40s have significantly outnumbered them. These individuals have been bold in taking on debt to purchase apartments, primarily in high-demand areas such as Gangnam, Seocho, Songpa, and Mapo, Yongsan, and Seongdong. As housing prices skyrocketed, the amount of loans inevitably increased as well.

The important thing is that people are not afraid to buy apartments despite the difficulties. Looking at the financing plans for houses traded in Seoul from January to July of this year, there were a total of 6,560 transactions where people in their 30s and 40s borrowed over 500 million won to purchase homes. Among those who bought houses, more than 10% took out loans exceeding 500 million won. In fact, to buy an apartment in Seoul, one must submit a financing plan. The reason for submitting a financing plan is that those buying homes priced over 600 million won or in overheated speculation zones must provide this document. There are hardly any apartments in Seoul priced below 600 million won, so nearly 100% of buyers must submit a financing plan. According to reports from daily newspapers, the 30s and 40s demographic has led the market.

This year, the percentage of housing transactions in Seoul that involved loans was 62.2%, which amounts to 2,444 cases. The average loan amount for these individuals was 470 million won. Three years ago, the average loan amount for these individuals was about 279 million won, indicating an increase of approximately 1.7 times, nearly doubling. What is also surprising is that while 62.2% of transactions involved loans, 38% of people purchased homes without any loans. This reflects a disparity in cash assets. According to an article from the Chosun Ilbo, a salaried worker purchased an apartment in Songpa-gu, Seoul, for 2.35 billion won last July. They took out a mortgage loan of 1.1 billion won and a credit loan of 130 million won, in addition to receiving a total of 430 million won from deposit-backed loans and insurance policy loans. Therefore, the total amount for the 2.35 billion won purchase.

They took out a loan of 1.66 billion won for an apartment. So, in simple calculations, their own capital, that is, their own money, was 690 million won. With this 690 million won, they purchased an apartment worth 2.35 billion won. According to the article, their monthly interest alone exceeds 4 million won, making their living situation quite tight. However, one of the spouses decided to treat their salary as if it didn't exist, reasoning that it was better to push themselves to move into Gangnam for the sake of their children's education or future asset value. Of course, in this case, the couple's burden is somewhat alleviated by the fact that they both work. In reality, there are people who take out large loans to buy apartments, and these individuals share a common trait: they are often dual-income couples. Additionally, these couples tend to have relatively high incomes, allowing them to make such significant purchases.

The burden is significantly less, and when couples acquire property jointly, it brings various benefits. As a result, there have been cases where high-priced properties are purchased, leading to a rebound in apartment prices and creating some instability again. If you look closely at the recent transactions, you'll notice that apart from the three districts of Gangnam and the Mayongseong area, there aren't many places that have surpassed their previous peak prices. The reason why new listings and transactions are emerging in areas like Gangnam and Mayongseong is that during the last apartment price decline, these regions managed to maintain some price support. Those who have observed this are now making purchases. Recently, there have been many discussions about people in their 40s driving up apartment prices. In fact, this age group is often considered to be in one of the highest income brackets of their lives, and since they still have a long way to go in their careers, the psychological drive to invest in well-located apartments as a means to build wealth has strengthened.

This can be seen as a result of the current economic situation. In the era of a declining population, only those who can survive will endure. If we compare the data from three years ago, in 2021, about 26% of homebuyers in Seoul were borrowers in their 40s. However, from January to July of this year, that figure increased to approximately 38%. The average loan amount for these borrowers in their 40s was 508 million won. Three years ago, the average loan amount was 288 million won, indicating a staggering increase of about 76.4% compared to the peak housing prices in 2021. This is a significant rise. The first reason for the rapid increase in loan debt is the surge in housing prices. The second reason is that moving to a higher-priced area has made people less fearful of debt. The third reason is the expectation that interest rates will decrease by the end of the year, which is tightening loan availability.

Before that time comes, there is a prevailing sentiment to quickly buy a house, which has led to a surge in store loans. However, if you think about it, a loan of 500 million won is a significant amount of money. Yet, when you simply calculate the price of an apartment in Seoul, it doesn't seem like that much. For example, if you are buying a 2 billion won apartment, a loan of 500 million won represents about 25% of the total cost. So, in terms of proportion, it doesn't appear to be a huge debt. However, in reality, there are many cases where it is not possible for a regular worker to repay a debt of 500 million won with their salary. Isn't that right? Moreover, there is often no thought of fully repaying this debt. This is because the idea is to sell the apartment when its value rises, move to another place, and if that apartment's value increases again, to take on more debt to move to an even better location. In this way, by borrowing money to invest in real estate assets like apartments, ultimately...

자산이 같이 상승하고 있기 때문에 빚을 다 갚겠다는 생각은 보통 하지 않습니다. 그렇지 않습니까? 올해 들어서는 10억 원에 거액을 대출받아 아파트를 산 사람들도 아주 많습니다. 10억 원씩 대출받아 집을 사는 이유는 현 정부 들어서 15억 원 넘는 고가 주택을 살 때도 대출이 가능해졌기 때문입니다. 그 이전에는 9억 원 이상은 대출이 안 해주었었습니다. 이렇게 되니까 거액을 대출받아 상급지로 갈아타기가 좀 더 수월해진 것입니다. 대출이 풀리니까, 이게 기회다 싶었던 사람들이 막 갈아타기를 시도한 거죠. 실제로 제 후배도 아주 친한 후배인데, 마포에 45평 아파트를 팔고 반포에 아주 오래된 30년이 훨씬 넘은 30평대 아파트로 이사 가려고 하는데 10억 원이 더 필요하다는 겁니다. 그래서 대출을 받아서 이사 가려고 마음을 먹고 나니까 그런 생각이 들더랍니다. 아, 나이 50이 넘어서.

It was a question posed to me about whether it's right to invest in an old apartment or to refrain from doing so, considering that apartment prices are only rising, while age increases and income decreases. I found it quite difficult to provide an answer. This friend's profession is freelancing. The thing about freelancing is that while it can yield significantly more income than a regular office job during good times, the inconsistency is a major concern. I was worried about that. Nowadays, the areas where people are buying homes with a strategy of borrowing as much as possible have changed quite a bit compared to three years ago. During the Moon Jae-in administration, areas like Nowon, Dobong, and Gangbuk, which are densely populated with mid to low-priced apartments under 900 million won, were popular. However, now, it's more about high-priced apartments concentrated in Gangnam, Songpa, Banpo, or the surrounding areas.

The region has changed. This means that the area where people are buying homes with large sums of money has shifted. People who used to live in the outskirts of Seoul are now using larger loans to move to higher-end areas like Magok, Gwangjin-gu, and Mokdong. Meanwhile, those who lived in these higher-end areas, such as Magok, Mokdong, and Gangdong-gu, are perceiving this year as the last opportunity to take out loans, and they are buying apartments in Gangnam, Banpo, and Songpa, which are also high-end areas. As a result, the scale of loans is inevitably increasing, and apartment prices in those directions are continuing to rise. Nowadays, people in their 30s and 40s are not afraid of loans. This is because they have witnessed the frightening rise in housing prices. A loan of 1 billion won is almost seen as a badge of honor. If someone says they took out a loan of 1 billion won to buy a house, rather than expressing concern, people tend to be envious, wondering how they managed to secure such a loan.

You're doing well, responding like this. But let me remind you again, this is really dangerous. The economy is quite difficult right now, isn't it? Even the apartments in Gangnam once plummeted during a market crash, and there was a period of about five to six years when the decline lasted a long time. So while the perception is that prices are rising, this could really become a problem. If there are too many loans, even for high-income earners or dual-income households, they have used all their money to buy a house, which means the economy won't circulate. If those individuals don't spend money, the economy won't turn. If high-income earners don't spend money, the economy can't move. Recently, our country's exports have been recovering a bit, and inflation has stabilized at 1.6% compared to the same month last year, recording a low. While it is said to be stabilizing, everyone is currently misled into thinking they need to buy a house.

Money does not circulate in terms of results. If apartment prices in Seoul drop sharply due to economic contraction, there is a risk that household economies could be shaken more than expected. I hope you all understand that this risk is always lurking. In my opinion, to reduce the risks associated with household loans in our country, we need to significantly tighten the amount of secured loans and lower interest rates. This would alleviate the burden on the middle class, and by tightening the amount of loans, we could also stabilize house prices to some extent. What do you all think? If you have good opinions, please leave a comment so we can study together. This year, banks are likely to make enormous profits. With loan interest rates increasing and deposit interest rates decreasing, their profits are bound to be substantial. There used to be a convenience store on the first floor of the building where my office is located, but as I was coming to work today...

I found out that the convenience store is moving. When I asked, Why are you moving all of a sudden? they said that the rent for a store smaller than 15 pyeong has increased from 6 million won to 7 million won, and they just can't handle it anymore. Business isn't doing well, the store rent is rising, and they can't hold on. So, they decided to move. Now, I have to walk about 250 meters to use the convenience store. This is the reality of real estate. Next time, I will bring more informative content. To all my subscribers, I hope you become wealthy. Thank you.

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