I think we should consider that first. Just because something is not good, it doesn't mean it's bad. If something is omitted, it's omitted. If you look at it this way, it's not right. Currently, the first thing is, um, there is a difference. Our usual judgment and perception of lowering interest rates are different from the past. So, these days, it seems urgent. First of all, we prioritize this. Eventually, when it comes to lowering interest rates after raising them for a long time, the time for lowering interest rates comes. When the time for lowering interest rates comes, reflecting the fact that the economy has been good so far but is now weakening, in order to cover that, isn't it time to lower interest rates? When processes like that come out, there is a sense of fear about it, and as the economy starts to shrink, starting from the high interest rates, it begins to fall, and the processes of supplying liquidity come into play. Then, lowering interest rates, and at that time, oh, the economy is not good, so we should lower interest rates.

The delay in doing this is much more unfolded after the interest rate today, but it seems that the impact is coming before doing it now. So, it's faster than before. The reason for this phenomenon is that the stock prices have risen a lot. In the past, during the interest rate hike period, stock prices did not rise as much. They tended to go down a bit, and then when the interest rate was raised, they went up and then fluctuated for a while, saying that the economy was not good, and then the process of strengthening liquidity continued, and then liquidity and the market situation kept rising like this. The initial aspect is that the problem is that the market has risen a lot. The reason it has risen a lot is because investments in AI-related areas have continued. Because of this atmosphere where people are saying that the economy is not good, then if they say the economy is not good, but it is improving a lot, they will sort everything out.

If I may say, this triggered a significant increase in stock prices, but then, in the AI-related sector, as much as it triggered, is this bubble really huge now? That's the most crucial point, right? So, if you keep investing only in that and end up not making any money, you should stop investing in it. If we really can't afford it, if we continue like this, it's not good. If we don't have money, and then a cliff comes, we'll fall. That's not what we want. I'm interpreting this. The market is moving so chaotically back and forth that it's just dizzying. Yesterday, it seemed like you should buy, and today, it seems like you should sell. You need to find the right balance. So, when you look at it that way, if you start by looking at AI technology-related stocks, the average P/E ratio for technology stocks related to AI currently seems to be around 33 times. If this is expensive, it's expensive, and if it's cheap, you can buy it. What does a P/E ratio of 33 times mean? Usually, now...

There is a company that receives about 30 times the valuation from the US company side, and if it pulls back a little on the growth value, it wouldn't be considered that expensive. However, recently, the stock price has dropped, so it has become even lower. Back in the days of the dot-com bubble, even though money couldn't be made, through IT, they could do something. The PR that came out at that time was earning 59 times more, but going forward, through this, they can make more money, and also to capture the center of the market, they are investing. When looking at the profit growth rate, these companies are also around 40% this year, but how much of this guidance has been met or not is important. However, if you look at it from a long-term perspective or on a quarterly basis, companies that have been making money consistently are now starting to invest the money they earned.

But why are there so many words, I'm saying this, so when I look at what to write, where to take a picture of that CB, or else raise funds, companies that do not do this, like Apple this time, and even Meta, Meta cuts people off and then invest based on that, but they can't make as much money as before, saying it's not about investing appropriately. When you look at it from that perspective, the most talked-about topic is AI expenses related to investment, almost continuously investing in that area, oh, we're having a hard time now, let's stop. So, when the 2nd quarter ends, we won't invest again. That's how it comes out, right? Even Google that came out this time, and Meta this time, too, to go up to 34, we will continue to invest again.

It's not about not making money, so, just like Amazon, we don't have any intention to reduce now. Apple, finally, after Cook, the next CEO, he came out and said the same thing. For our AI intelligence, we are continuously preparing. However, we will give all the dividends we can give since we made a lot of money, and we will keep investing. It doesn't seem like the investment will stop. Looking at the comments and trends coming out now, but why do we worry first? It seems like it won't stop, so showing and watching are different, but anyway, as it comes out like this, to conclude, it's a turbulent period right now. It's the same in the U.S. market, and what needs to be checked the most in the U.S. market is whether it can maintain the 1,000 levels on a weekly basis. This seems to be the crucial point, and the volatility may increase.

When announcing performance results, fluctuations can increase, but if we hold on until this point, it seems that we may need to open up to 16,500 cases. However, even if we do that, if we additionally have that 16,500, it will be pushed up to around 2% to 3%, around 337, 21, for example, about 3% more. When thinking about whether I can withstand it on one side, first of all, I have a lot of IT semiconductors and I am responding here. If this response doesn't go well this time, of course, I will be losing money now. When you think about this situation, do you think this cycle is starting to end at its peak, or is it still going up for a while, then digesting the inventory and coming out for the next step? You should consider that. But if you think it's over, then you should sort it out. That's correct. But it's not over yet; the expansion trend is still there.

There's still time, so this cycle is not the end. Certainly, companies like Samsung Electronics and SK, they're not talking about it now. When the stock price drops, foreigners sell, and when the stock price drops, the local people get anxious. So, it seems like you should sell for no reason. I feel like I can't handle this. Then it's stressful. If it goes like that, it will be stressful, but you have to endure it to a certain extent. You should trim it to this extent and endure it. You should try this once. You have to endure it. I think this is healthier. Because in this situation, if it goes down like this, up and down, touching, now that the volatility is increasing, it goes down quickly and goes up quickly. If you look at today, yesterday, it surged and then plunged. It's chaotic, isn't it? If it comes out a few times like this, and if it keeps coming out like that, then oh.

Selling well and buying more below, what can't I buy? It's really difficult. That's why I think it's better to just say, I don't know, I'll endure. When you have that mindset, it's better to endure, but instead of enduring, when I go back and forth like this, at least when it falls to a low point, when it falls to a low point, it feels like it's going to shake and sell off. It feels like you'll end up selling off. I think it's better to take a proportion that's not too different from that in the market. I still think it's not over yet. Yes, but with all these time periods and situations coming up, my mind is so busy, so yeah, I'll try to endure. I think I'll endure. And on top of that, now the benefits of interest rates will come out. I saw some perspectives on the interest rate side yesterday. The U.S. is strong, but now I see that REITs are based on real estate. Real estate is a bit stronger in Korea.

I think my desire for stocks is quite evident in real estate. REITs, and also the biotech sector, seem relatively promising. Additionally, biotech healthcare, and gold... so, with the interest rate cuts, although I wasn't interested before, now it seems that these things are getting attention, which indicates changes in the market. Moving on to consumer goods, in the U.S., consumer goods have strong aspects. For example, cosmetics - everyone is anticipating their performance this time. If they meet expectations, there might be some changes. Also, looking at food and related items, they have shown an expansion trend along with a defensive nature against economic downturns. So, we should continue to pay attention to these. In the market, there are talks about the construction sector lately. When construction starts to pick up, it's related to domestic demand, right? However, construction is also moving internationally.

Because of the connection, when looking at GS Construction, which is expected to increase due to the connection, it seems like they have already filled up nearly 50 to 60% of overseas orders. Also, in the shipbuilding sector, which is somewhat massive, it seems like there are signs of a cycle turning around and signs of starting to recover. If we look at the distribution, there seems to be distribution in the market. Not at all, it says to look at domestic demand, it came out like this. When I saw this, I saw comments from the Bank of Korea's industrial activity trends, showing that domestic demand is almost close to a cliff. This could lead to a slight discussion of improvement. But I don't believe it, not in the slightest, but still, it's starting to turn around from the rapid decline. If the real estate, which is the basis of construction, starts to recover, will domestic demand in Korea revive?

That also, oh, the real estate prices have gone up a bit. Should I invest in stocks? When things like this happen, a process of becoming a bit happier comes out, and that's when distribution starts moving. So, even though I mentioned E-Mart last week, I have no interest at all, but when I wonder why the stock price is going up, it's because changes are happening now. When you see things like this, you should just not have any expectations. But if you look at land in that sector, don't buy it for speculation. It would be better to wait for the right time to buy, and if you have experienced such processes once, you should be prepared to respond. It must be really tough right now. If you just endure in this situation, it could either hold or just sell. So, it would be better to focus and if you think you will try this, it would be better to go for it.

So in the end, it seems like everything depends on what stocks I hold. People who think that the stocks they have are not that expensive fundamentally might have the mindset of if I hold on, it will eventually work out. On the other hand, those who hold a lot of good stocks may feel more anxious. Are you still holding onto those stocks that have risen a lot? Some have already sold everything. Well, that may be true, but right now, the most important thing is how to make judgments. I hope you firmly grasp that. Let's take a look at one of the most frequently mentioned topics. Also, regarding the Japanese yen and the US dollar, as the yen is getting stronger, many are saying that a secondary carry shock might come along with it. I felt quite uneasy about this topic yesterday, especially when the TOPIX dropped by 3%.

When the market closed, it went up to 148 and ended at 150. So, well, he naturally starts to come back like this a bit. Japan's withdrawal can have various interpretations, but for now, well, things like interest rates and everything changing may stop the anxiety together. But when you look at the exchange rate, yesterday it was around 149.35, so that seems to be the most important. Even yesterday, during trading hours, it dropped down and then went back up. So, this is once on the day of the announcement by the Bank of Japan, and then, um, as this comes out once in a while, yesterday, 149 was broken. When things like this break and start, they are likely to come out during trading hours. This is where it really starts. The speed at which it quickly went down before may accelerate again this time, but if it goes down quickly, then it will be volatile. It's not like that; it's just moving slowly at a certain level.

Changes are happening, so the market can be interpreted differently. Currently, the NTA rate is much faster than expected. In the past, changes were not this significant, so now that it's happening, there's nothing we can do. They are moving in a strong direction, and we have to adjust according to the speed of their momentum. Therefore, it seems necessary to keep an eye on it. Secondly, what's coming up is that there is geopolitical risk. Right now, there is a call for retaliation against Israel, so within 72 hours, they are urging their allies to attack. However, when you look at this closely, oil prices did not rise yesterday; they actually dropped further. But when this was mentioned before, it was not about a full-scale war but rather a mention of a specific attack. If it's a specific attack, it's not terrorism support, but rather pressure from there.

It comes out like this in a few lines, so of course, the Middle East as a whole is uneasy. It's uneasy now, so if a full-scale war breaks out, wouldn't the anxiety increase even more? These kinds of discussions come up. What's even more upsetting is that the oil prices are not going up. That means the fear of an economic downturn is even greater. That's right. That's true. But on the other hand, looking at it from the opposite perspective, you have to interpret all these things. Yes, that's right. But first of all, even in our country, the Korean won is currently at 1,369, which is 170 won stronger. Korea is so strong that it has no choice but to prefer strength. So strong. Also, the 10-year government bond yield dropped to 4% yesterday, ending at 3.97. When you look at these circumstances, well, of course, as the economy is contracting, people are somewhat shifting towards safer assets.

It may be there, but when viewed from the opposite side, you should consider that there is much less burden. Currently, it is not working properly, but when this ends, there may be some concerns about an economic downturn or something like that, so it's better to prepare in advance. Anyway, I think of it as a post-disaster situation. As this starts to come out and changes start to happen, once this is over, there may be a frenzy about liquidity. When liquidity finally returns, things will change. If that happens, there may be a significant change, so let's wait and see even up to that point. Things are somewhat optimistic. Looking at the market now, besides that, other things are putting more pressure, so we'll see about that. Today, the Korean stock market closed at 2750. Will it hold as the closing price? But we were somewhat involved yesterday, so today there might be an additional shock.

I receive this, but today we need to endure a bit, that's true, but we can't just keep doing that. So, going down to around 2,750 and then coming back up, can we achieve that? I think that's the most crucial point. Even if there is a delay, we managed to keep it around the early 2,730s. Since around the end of July, whether it will come all the way down here or end around this level, if it receives some adjustments, it might not be at the bottom of the box range, but slightly higher in the box range. This is how we should look at it. So, when it starts to connect from the peak like this, we need to check if it ends slightly higher on the inside. Therefore, today, we need to check how to create those lines. Also, the most important thing is that foreigners have spot positions. They are trading futures, and on the same day, they bought at least.

Even if the spot market remains relatively stable, so, it's too much, so when the Korean won strengthens, what we expect is foreign investors to buy, right? But it doesn't seem like they will come in immediately. They won't come in right away in full force. It's not like they will just pour in all at once. They will be selective and enter after things settle to some extent. Then, Larry, high prices, right? When the Korean won strengthens, for example, in the past, the profits from sectors like automobiles and semiconductors, which have been leading the way in terms of performance, could also decrease. But the movement based on that profitability is not that big of a deal. So, even in times like before, when the won was strong, there were many cases where stock prices hit highs, right? So, that's just a relative perspective, and because of that, the profitability may decrease, affecting some parts of the performance.

In the stock market, those who do not pay much attention to it, so ultimately, the section that endures now, endures. For example, sectors that benefit from interest rates, those mentioned earlier, let's gently focus on them and endure well for now. It seems more appropriate. Yes, that's right. Since many leading stocks that have already risen a lot have received a lot of attention, even now, even now, should we go down for a while? And then, if I sell here, will I be able to catch up if there is a rebound? Due to this, many people may feel confused, and in fact, such confusion can make things even scarier. If you make a decision and prepare your mind, it's okay, but when you think, What should I do? the growing fear makes it worse. That's how the market is. It goes up like this continuously, starting from now on, it goes up and then goes on confusingly.

If you fall, where is the market now? Anyway, when you can't sell at the peak and have come this far, that's the interpretation around the middle. But how I will respond is my area. So, for those who can quickly respond, they must have prepared in advance. However, for those who cannot, when they think it has crossed the line, they think they need more detail about themselves. So maybe by then in September, interest rates will come out, and until then, various variables will come out. But what's unique about Korea is that the mid-level investors fell first. They were the first to collapse. Then when they thought they would take it, there was no one to buy or sell.

I've cut off the people I needed to cut off. Those who should stay, I will keep. Recently, within the last two months, there have been numerous stocks that have plummeted by over 30% to 40% in just a month and a half to two months. So, if something unexpected happens, will they drop even further? It's hard to say. They might continue to fall. Looking at the market trends, however, after all this is over, what will be the bigger opportunity? I hope you can think about that. Alright, I understand.

경기침체 공포, 금리인하 시기 늦은 걸까? / 폭락장, 주식 지금 팔까? 중심 잡고 버텨야 한다. / 금리 인하 수혜 섹터를 찾아라 | 김민수 대표

안녕하세요! 
돈 이 되는 경제이야기, 고수들의 투자 노하우를 배우는 경제 채널 입니다.

* 비즈니스 및 광고 문의 : ad@815.co.kr
* 출연 및 섭외 문의 : thinkeasyman@naver.com


경기침체 공포, 금리인하 시기 늦은 걸까? / 폭락장, 주식 지금 팔까? 중심 잡고 버텨야 한다. / 금리 인하 수혜 섹터를 찾아라 | 김민수 대표

Scripts