Hello everyone. Today, I would like to introduce a new member of the Apartment Cycle Research Institute, announcer Kim Na-eun. Nice to meet you all, Director. I am now joining the Apartment Cycle Research Institute as a new member starting today. I have been hosting economic broadcasts for quite some time, so I have a strong interest in the economy, and among those topics, I particularly love real estate. While I may not have the depth of knowledge that the Director has, I believe my level of interest is somewhat similar. I am truly passionate about real estate, and I was very happy to join the team. I think we will be able to share many interesting and diverse stories in an engaging and easy-to-understand way. You mentioned you have a strong interest in real estate. By the way, did you know me before this? Of course! If you don’t know Lee Yeon-cheol in real estate, isn’t that a crime?

I'm not that famous, but I knew about it. We often looked up Sonah's videos, and they seem really fun. We did a bit of filming today, right? How did you feel about our chemistry? It was really good. The first shoot is usually quite challenging, especially since we don't have a script at all. You did really well. Thank you! Please continue to support us, and we would appreciate it if you show us a lot of love. I think it would be great if you all could take good care of us. Please remember to subscribe, like, and turn on notifications—it's essential! Thank you! Nice to meet you all. I am Lee Hyun-cheol, the head of the apartment cycle research institute. Today, we will discuss the content we cover every month, which is trading volume. Let's dive into it.

Let's check the apartment sales transaction volume together. If we go into the Seoul real estate information plaza, which is updated monthly, we can see the current real estate transaction status. For example, we can view the average transaction amount for apartments and the transaction volume. The transaction volume indicator is currently red. The indicator we want to focus on is here. Looking at the transaction volume for July, last month, we thought that this month might exceed 10,000 transactions. However, it ultimately did not surpass that number. As you can see, it was recorded at 8,745 transactions. It came very close to 10,000. Last month, in June, the transaction volume was 7,526, so 8,745 is a significant increase. The numbers are currently being tallied, and there has been a lot of talk about a rising market.

The trading volume has increased significantly, and it is expected to continue rising. However, there are some surprising indicators that are following this trend. What indicators are there? As of now, the data for August is being compiled, and since August has already passed, today, which is September 3rd, means that there is just a little less than a month left for the August data to be finalized. Is the August data not fully compiled yet? That's correct. The trading volume data is compiled within the month, and actual transaction reports can be submitted until the following month. So, the data for August will be finalized by the end of September. Currently, the data being compiled for August shows about 328 transactions, and when looking at the end of August, it was slightly below 3,000 transactions. Now, with three days into September, it has just slightly surpassed 3,000 transactions.

If the trend continues, there is almost no possibility that the trading volume in August will be higher than in July. I think that will be the case. Then, in September, there is a high likelihood that the volume will decrease even further. Therefore, I have mentioned before that trading volume will decline. Since we are currently in a rebound market, as we move into fall and then winter, the trading volume is expected to decrease significantly. It would be good to keep an eye on whether this prediction holds true. 

I see. So, if this is not just a rebound market but a bullish market, the trading volume in August should be higher. The trading volume in August needs to increase, and the volume in September should also rise. Only then can we maintain a bullish atmosphere. If the trading volume declines from here, there is a very high possibility that the bullish sentiment will also diminish.

In that aspect, another reference point could be the average transaction amount. The average transaction amount indicates that if the transaction value is rising, it means we are experiencing upward transactions. However, if the transaction value is decreasing, then we are seeing downward transactions. Additionally, if the trading volume is declining and the overall atmosphere is weakening, we can infer certain trends. 

Looking at the average transaction price for July, it has decreased compared to the transaction prices in June. The average transaction price in June was 1.26221 billion won, while it is now about 1.21 billion won. This indicates a decrease of approximately 30 million won in the average transaction amount. Based on this data, what can we predict? It seems that beyond the key expensive areas, there are transactions occurring in areas of Seoul that are not as expensive, such as the regions commonly referred to as Nodogang, where some transactions have taken place.

This is how we can make predictions. So, the situation is somewhat like a regional cycle, where first the prices rise in certain areas. Usually, the Gangnam region sees the initial increase. In this rebound, Songpa has taken the lead, and then Gangnam followed. In this situation, we can predict that there has been a shift towards the less popular areas like Nodogang. In fact, recent news articles indicate that there has been an increase in transaction volume in Nodogang. This suggests that we can make predictions based on these observations. Currently, the transaction amounts are decreasing, which means that the upward trend may not be sustained. It feels like the atmosphere has slightly turned down in July and August. This is evident in the transaction volume and average transaction amounts in Seoul.

I looked into it, and I feel like the overall upward momentum has weakened a bit. As you mentioned, there has been a rebound starting from Songpa and Gangdong this year. It seems that the core areas like Gangnam and Songpa showed a noticeable increase, but the warmth of that increase hasn’t strongly reached other regions. Typically, during a rebound, the buying power is weak, so it tends to concentrate in certain areas, leaving other sectors without support. In a full-blown bull market, all types of investors, including ordinary people and those without homes, emerge as buyers. So, when areas like Gangnam rise, regions like the Ma-Yong-Seong in Seoul follow, and then areas like Nodogang see increases as well.

The areas that are least likely to rise, like Gangseo, are actually starting to increase. However, the strength of the rebound is weak, so it seems to spread out and then just dies down. This atmosphere is not just in Seoul; it's the same in Gyeonggi Province. In Gyeonggi Province, when areas rise, the key regions, such as Bundang or Pangyo, or other well-known areas that people like, tend to lead the increase. As this spreads to other regions, it eventually loses momentum and comes to an end. When those areas peak, they should return to the key regions for further growth, but that doesn’t happen. This creates a pattern where the rebound is weak and just circles back slightly. Currently, the atmosphere seems to be fading away a bit.

You can just look at it. So, if you observe whether the atmosphere I predicted continues, it will be fine. It's not just about whether the market prices go up or down, but how these phenomena occur. After the rebound ends, what comes next is a trading cliff. This means that the buying pressure will disappear. When the buying pressure disappears, the trading volume will drop sharply. I'm curious about this; I think there might be some seasonal characteristics as well. With Chuseok and the New Year coming up, and then winter arriving, people tend to buy houses less during winter, right? The specific answers to that question, however, need to be validated. To validate it, we need data and such.

We need to do certain things, but in this case, we only prepared the volume indicator to discuss trading volume. It seems that you might film a video like this in the future. So, what should you prepare now? During the moving season, trading tends to slow down, especially during vacation periods like July and August. People usually don't trade during vacation seasons, right? It would be good for you to check whether this has happened consistently in the past. I think it could be interesting. It's important to verify things in that way. We shouldn't only believe what we want to believe. From the perspective of those hoping for a rise, the fact that trading volume is decreasing is not encouraging. Therefore, they might want to find some counterarguments. So, what could be some valid counterarguments to this?

That's why such comments come up. So, we often think that during moving season, there aren't many transactions when it's not moving season. This approach is from the perspective of actual residence. However, in our country, there is no perspective of actual residence. Yes, it's all from an investment standpoint. When considering it as an investment, timing is not really important. You buy when you want to and when your money is ready. This is what we call moving, and people who think they need to move are the ones who engage in this. However, the trading patterns are no longer like that. There is no such formula now. So, it depends on whether you view it from the perspective of actual residence or from the investment perspective. Even if people are living in a house, they approach it from the investment perspective, thinking, I bought it, so I might as well live in it. That's why, in fact, now...

I will verify, but it's been a long time since we thought about the peak moving season and vacation season when there were many transactions. Now, it seems we need to break away from the formulas of high and low seasons. I understand. Then, I looked at the transaction volume in Seoul, and these days, when I read articles about Gyeonggi Province, there is a lot of talk about polarization. However, it feels like the transaction prices and volumes in Gyeonggi Province and Seoul are moving almost in tandem. That's right. In fact, rather than polarization, I see the Seoul metropolitan area, including Gyeonggi Province and Incheon, as one market. They show very similar behaviors. As I mentioned earlier, within the Seoul market, key areas rise first, and then the surrounding areas follow suit, and the same is happening in Gyeonggi Province.

Similarly, in Gyeonggi Province, core areas are rising in price as transactions occur first, and then the effects gradually spread to the outskirts. This leads to a situation where the momentum starts to fade. If we look at the transaction status provided by Gyeonggi Province, we can see that in July, the total number of transactions was 27,488, while in June, it was around 25,000. In August, the transaction volume is expected to be about 15,000. Once the data is finalized, it seems likely to exceed 30,000. In August, Gyeonggi Province might see a slight increase in transaction volume. For example, in Seoul, if the core areas rise and become expensive, people may become hesitant to purchase in those pricey areas and instead look for slightly cheaper options.

Then, since we're going towards the outskirts of Seoul or Gyeonggi Province, there is a possibility that this trend will continue. So, if the transaction volume in Seoul decreases, Gyeonggi Province will eventually follow suit. I think it's good to keep an eye on these indicators with such expectations. When we look at transaction volumes, we also monitor the inventory indicators. If we enter the inventory changes, we can press the button to see where Seoul stands. The inventory graph for Seoul appears here. We need to look at the sales data, so let's uncheck the jeonse option. Looking at the number of listings, the graph shows that it went up a bit and then decreased. If you look closely at the end, it has slightly spiked again. Currently, the inventory is increasing.

Is the increase a sign that prices may drop a bit? In fact, it’s not 100% connected to that. What it comes down to is whether the sellers who want to sell their properties are actively pushing to sell or taking a more relaxed, passive approach, as that affects the prices differently. However, the important point is that the number of people wanting to sell is increasing. So, when prices are trending upwards, those who think the upward trend will continue tend to withdraw their listings. This results in a decrease in available properties. But the fact that listings are coming back now means that those looking to sell do not see the upward trend continuing. Ah, I see. So at this point, they might think it’s a good time to sell quickly and get out.

There is this mindset, but these people, they are not in a hurry to sell aggressively. They are people who want to sell at a good price, so they usually put their properties on the market as a bait and wait. Therefore, just because there are listings, you shouldn't think it necessarily leads to a price drop. I understand. We have only considered quantity so far, but quantity is not the most important thing. Here, the qualitative aspect is much more significant. That’s why I express the need for proactivity. So, whether someone is trying to sell aggressively or passively can completely change the impact on the price. Then, what can we use to judge this proactivity and passivity? There isn't anything specific. How about the asking price? Right, the asking price reflects the level of people's proactivity to some extent.

If there is no assertiveness, they will raise the asking price and wait, right? And those who are assertive will lower the asking price. However, most people do not lower the asking price easily. So, a tip for those who want to buy is that they should not just lower the asking price; they should create room for negotiation. Homeowners know that if they lower the price in advance, it will decrease due to my influence. They will ask for a significant discount, right? They will ask for a substantial cut. So, they just lower it to the extent that others are offering. Those who are completely unassertive will not negotiate at all, while those who are somewhat assertive will create room for negotiation. Effectively utilizing this in real estate will be very helpful for you. So, depending on how much negotiation is happening in real estate, you as a buyer...

Yes, you can buy cheaply or buy expensively; that's how it works. It's a great tip. There is that aspect. So, looking at the inventory graph, what we can determine is that homeowners' expectations for price increases are not as high as they were in 2020 or 2021. In fact, all indicators are not currently trending upward. They are not going up, and there are many signs that suggest this could end as just a rebound. Through the increase or decrease in inventory, we can somewhat glimpse indicators of these price increases, rebounds, or declines. I think soon I will shoot a video with a big title. What title? The Rise is Over. I expect a double explosion. It seems we are heading in that direction, and I hope to see if my predictions are correct or not.

Clearly, there will be comments later in December saying that I was wrong again, and I wonder if there are people who will leave such comments. Thinking about this is quite amusing. It seems like it will be fun. You all should try not to just follow along but to make predictions in advance. Alright, as you mentioned earlier, the transaction volume in August could rise a bit in Gyeonggi Province, while in Seoul, it might enter a slight lull starting from August. As for the transaction volume in August, Seoul has slightly over 3,000 cases at this point. Since there's still a month left, that could roughly double, bringing it to about 6,000 cases. However, typically, the volume recorded in the following month tends to be higher than that of the current month. So if we make a prediction, it could be around 6,000 to 7,000 cases.

There is a high possibility that it will be the case. Ah, I see. Then, it will be a little lower than in July, right? Currently, in Gyeonggi Province, there are 15,000 cases, so if we consider the amount being built now, there is a possibility that it may slightly exceed 30,000 cases. Ah, we can expect this. I understand. We always need to assess the trading volume with about a month’s lag, right? I understand. It would be interesting for our subscribers to predict how the trading volume from last month will turn out next month. Yes, that's right. So today, we discussed the trading volume for July. We will return next month with the trading volume for August. Thank you, Director. Yes, thank you. So, did you all enjoy it? Don’t forget to subscribe, like, and set the notification. We will see you next time. Thank you.

신호가 보인다! 서울, 경기도 7월 아파트 거래량 "주목해야 할 부분은.."

부동산에 대한 객관적인 시각, 정확한 이론으로 시장을 분석하고 현상을 설명합니다.

아파트 사이클 연구소 소장 이현철입니다.
아파트는 필수품이면서 투자상품입니다
주식이나 암호화폐등 전형적인 투자상품은 관심이 없는 사람은
끝까지 관심을 갖지 않아도 되고 관심이 없을수도 있습니다.
그래서 분위기가 과열될때에도 분위기에 휩쓸리지 않을수도 있게 되는 것이죠.

그런데 주택은 다릅니다. 피할수 없습니다.
매일 매일 접하면서 살아야 합니다. 그래서 주택시장이 과열되면
그동안 관심을 가지지 않아도 될것 같다가 어쩔수 없이 과열된 시장에
반 강제적으로 참여하게 됩니다. 

그래서 부동산 공부가 필요합니다.
[피하지 못할거면 즐겨라] 라는 말이 있습니다.
부동산은 피할수 없습니다. 관심을 갖지 않고 살다가 반드시
후회하는 상황을 맞닥뜨리게 됩니다.
그럴거면 공부를 해서 내가 시장을 응용하고 잘 대응할수 있게
만드는게 낫지 않을까 생각합니다.

그 과정에서 제가 조금이나마 도움이 되었으면 합니다
부동산에 대한 객관적인 시각으로
부동산에 대한 좀더 정확한 이론으로
시장을 분석하고 현상을 설명하고자 합니다

많은 관심과 참여 바랍니다

- 비즈니스 협업 문의 : hoktal1@us-all.co.kr